Dispatch #250: Will crypto ETFs skyrocket altcoins?

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

BTC support holds firm
Stablecoins score a win
The Fed assesses inflation (again)

Market cast

BTC: Cooling momentum with a warm outlook

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows signs of slowing momentum, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) falling below 25, a common signal of trend fatigue. Still, key momentum indicators remain constructive. The MACD stays above the zero line, suggesting underlying bullish pressure, while the Stochastic Oscillator remains elevated above 80, signaling continued buying strength. The RSI holds in neutral territory, leaving room for further moves in either direction.

On the daily chart, momentum signals have flattened. The Stochastic and RSI sit in neutral zones, while the MACD has slipped just below zero, hinting at near-term softness. A sub-20 ADX reading confirms the absence of a strong trend, pointing to a range-bound environment for now.

In terms of levels, $107,000 stands as immediate resistance, with $110,000 marking the next ceiling. Support remains firm at $100,000, a key psychological level that held during recent tests, reinforcing its significance.

Geopolitical tensions are also influencing price direction, adding a layer of uncertainty to a market already reacting to shifting momentum. While the trend has softened, bullish conditions are still in place.

The big idea

The next stage in the crypto ETF era

The weekend delivered a dose of geopolitical tension. Reports that Iran may move to block the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for 20% of global oil flows — briefly paused market momentum. Bitcoin temporarily tested levels below $100,000, quickly stabilizing thereafter. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter called it a “short-lived war” and indeed, the mood has shifted fast.

Now, in classic Big Idea fashion, we zoom out from short-term shocks and focus on what could become crypto’s next major catalyst: a broadening wave of U.S. ETF approvals — and momentum is clearly building.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the odds of approval by October for a range of asset-specific crypto ETFs, including Solana, XRP, Litecoin, Dogecoin and Cardano, now stand at 90% or higher. That’s a sharp rise, fueled by a noticeable shift in the SEC’s posture toward engaged collaboration.

Unlike past standoffs, regulators are now actively working with issuers. They're requesting updates on mechanics like in-kind redemptions and staking, signaling not just openness, but readiness to shape these products.

The result? This next ETF cohort could break new ground, especially if staking rewards become part of the fund design. That would mark a first: traditional ETFs delivering native crypto yield.

There’s also greater awareness of structural risks. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs faced turbulence from the “Grayscale effect,” with trust conversions previously triggering sell pressure. This time, setups like Solana’s, which hold minimal trust supply and trade cleanly, could offer a smoother launch path than Litecoin, where deeper trust exposure still looms.

Why it matters for the market

ETF approvals don’t just bring access — they unlock participation. They validate assets in the eyes of traditional capital, invite inflows through regulated channels, and reshape the narrative around what’s investable.

And while each ETF targets a single asset, its cumulative effect could be sector-wide. As access broadens, liquidity deepens, and exposure scales, the uplift rarely stops with just the headline ticker.

This momentum isn’t limited to the U.S., either. South Korea is preparing to launch spot crypto ETFs in 2025, reversing prior bans and signaling a global pivot in policy and infrastructure.

The bottom line? The SEC may approve these ETFs one by one but their impact is anything but isolated. With Bloomberg’s 90% odds in play, the market may already be turning its gaze toward the next leg higher.

Bitcoin

$100K: BTC’s new floor price?

Bitcoin continues to hold its ground in a volatile world, brushing off geopolitical jitters and macro headwinds with surprising resilience. After dipping over the weekend, it climbed back above $105,000 — unchanged week-on-week. Here are the main developments behind the recovery:

Holding the line: After holding above $100,000 for several weeks, Bitcoin’s brief dip during Middle East tensions proved short-lived, underscoring the level’s growing significance as structural support.
ETF flows cool, but demand persists: Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1 billion last week, down 30% from the prior week, but institutional appetite remains intact.
Derivatives dial up: Open interest in BTC futures and options reached $96 billion, fueled by leverage and rising call demand. Funding rates remain positive, hinting at a cautiously bullish mood.
Texas goes long BTC: Governor Abbott signed a bill establishing a state-managed Bitcoin reserve, making Texas the first U.S. state to commit public funds to BTC.

TradFi trends

Stablecoins get the Senate’s green light

The U.S. Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, the first federal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins and a potential game-changer for traditional finance.

The bill opens the door for banks, fintechs, and even major retailers to issue their own digital dollars, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projecting the stablecoin market could soar past $2 trillion. He called it a step toward reinforcing U.S. dollar dominance, as stablecoins evolve into major buyers of Treasurys.

President Trump, who has championed stablecoins as a pillar of U.S. digital leadership, urged the House to move “LIGHTNING FAST” and pass a clean version of the bill. He wants it on his desk by August. The bottom line? Stablecoins are quickly shifting from crypto edge case to institutional battleground.

Macroeconomic roundup

Another macro test

Macro signals take center stage this week as Bitcoin faces its next policy test. Here is what’s coming up this week:

Powell testifies (June 24–25): Fed Chair Jerome Powell returns to Capitol Hill for his semiannual address. With geopolitical tensions rising, markets will watch closely for any clues on rate policy, especially in response to energy shocks. A dovish tone could fuel a crypto rebound; hawkish signals may trigger more risk-off.

U.S. Jobless Claims (June 27): Weekly claims have been creeping higher, hitting levels not seen since last October. Another weak print could boost expectations for Fed cuts and become a tailwind for Bitcoin. A surprise drop, though, may lift the dollar and weigh on crypto.

Core PCE Inflation (June 28): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to rise modestly. A higher-than-expected print could stall risk appetite and strengthen the case for prolonged tight policy. A cooler number would support the rate-cut narrative and likely crypto prices with it.

Blockchain

Ford tests the blockchain

One of the world’s largest companies is eyeing blockchain for the courtroom. Ford Motor Company has teamed up with Iagon, a Web3 cloud storage provider, and Cloud Court, a blockchain-based dispute resolution platform, to pilot a decentralized legal data system built on Cardano.

The project tackles a real enterprise headache: messy, siloed legal records. By encrypting data off-chain and using Cardano for access control and audit trails, the initiative aims to bring order, security, and transparency to corporate litigation. The move could open the door for more Fortune 500s to follow.

The week’s most interesting data story

Locating Bitcoin’s bounce zone

On-chain data points to a critical support zone between $95,500 and $98,000, aligning with the cost basis of short-term holders. Since April, every correction has bounced near this level, suggesting it may be Bitcoin’s emerging floor. While short-term holder profits are thinning (STH-MVRV sits at just 0.03, according to Glassnode analysts), the level has held firm so far — a sign that conviction remains, even under pressure.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$199.59 – Circle stock is up 530% since IPO, surging after GENIUS Act momentum.
$155 million – Crypto venture capital raised last week, bringing 2025’s total to $9.4 billion.
€1.35 billion – Eutelsat stock jumps 31% on French state-led capital raise.
$265 million – ETH whales buy 116,000+ ETH during June 21 sell-off.
1,111 BTC – Metaplanet adds 1,111 BTC, halfway to 100,000 BTC goal.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

All foreseen in Dispatch #238 and BTC at $85K.

We are all here for the next move.

Is this proof of conviction?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].