Dispatch #238: Bitcoin’s moves in Q2

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• The big update for Ethereum
• Awaiting Liberation day
• Crypto’s cross-chain achievement

Market cast 

Bitcoin and tariffs: a wait-and-see market

The recent 10-day inflow streak into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — the longest of the year — ended Friday with a modest $93 million outflow from Fidelity’s FBTC. Still, the streak saw over $1 billion in net inflows, underscoring ongoing institutional interest, albeit measured.

Amidst it, Bitcoin has begun to consolidate within the $82,000 – $85,000 USD range on the weekly chart, with the $82,000 level now acting as a significant support zone. Should this level be breached, the $80,000 mark is likely to serve as the next area of support. On the upside, resistance is currently established at $86,500, with a potential next target at $90,000 if bullish momentum resumes.

The RSI remains neutral; however, both the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in oversold territory, suggesting bears may currently hold a slight advantage. From a macroeconomic perspective, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment figures will be key events to watch. Additionally, Wednesday’s anticipated announcement of new tariffs by former President Trump could have notable implications for broader market sentiment.

The big idea

Q2 action for Bitcoin: from BlackRock to Brazil

Bitcoin is wrapping up Q1 with a softer performance, potentially marking one of its more modest quarters in recent years. Market activity has been relatively muted, with participants adopting a wait-and-see stance amid anticipation of upcoming tariff announcements from President Trump. Still, in its weakest month, Bitcoin has managed to beat both gold and the S&P 500 since Election Day.

Historically, the second quarter of the year, especially April, has been one of the strongest periods for Bitcoin. Looking ahead, several positive underlying developments suggest that this temporary slowdown may represent a healthy consolidation phase rather than a shift in the broader trend.

Fidelity says Bitcoin could overtake gold Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, offered a tempered but meaningful long-term view. If Bitcoin continues to follow a power-law or internet-style adoption curve, it could eventually surpass gold in market value. Timmer frames Bitcoin as the next chapter in hard money evolution, saying: “Gold will always be Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling.”

GameStop goes Bitcoin GameStop has joined the growing list of public companies adding Bitcoin to their treasury strategy, with support from activist investor Strive Asset Management. The company announced plans to raise $1.3 billion via convertible senior notes, explicitly stating that proceeds may be used for “general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin.” What a time to be alive – Bitcoin as a general corporate purpose.

Saylor ups the ante: $500 trillion vision Strategy chairman Michael Saylor has expanded his long-term vision for Bitcoin, projecting a future $500 trillion market cap as it absorbs value from legacy assets like real estate, gold, and sovereign wealth. He believes the U.S. could capture 25–30% of this value if it continues to lead on Bitcoin strategy. And it appears he's already doing his part as Strategy added 22,048 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 528,185 BTC worth over $43 billion.

BlackRock keeps buying The $15.8B Global Allocation Fund increased its holdings in IBIT by over 1,800% since launch, while BlackRock’s model portfolios now include a 1–2% Bitcoin allocation. Traditional portfolio frameworks are increasingly integrating Bitcoin exposure. Media reports that by 2030, as much as 25% of the S&P 500 could have BTC on their balance sheet.

Brazil joins the Bitcoin reserve conversation A senior official in Brazil’s federal government called the creation of a sovereign Bitcoin reserve “crucial for our prosperity” as a new bill proposes allocating up to 5% of Brazil’s international reserves to BTC. The initiative would position Brazil alongside a growing list of nations recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, reinforcing its relevance at the sovereign level.

So yes, Bitcoin’s Q1 may be ending with a whimper. But between corporate adoption, growing sovereign interest, institutional accumulation, and steady ETF integration, the case for a constructive Q2 is gradually taking shape. Bitcoin whales appear to agree – see more below.

Ethereum

ETH flatlines, but Pectra could spark a revival

Ethereum’s price performance lately has been layer-2’d. With the ETH/BTC ratio in five-year lows, media reports that activity is increasingly migrating to layer-2 solutions, drawing attention away from the main chain. However, Ethereum’s upcoming major upgrade could help shift momentum and restore balance within the ecosystem.

The Pectra upgrade, now tentatively set for April 30, promises smoother UX and dev workflows, merging the best of Prague and Electra into one streamlined package. With the testnet phase finally finalized on Hoodi, Ethereum’s core developers are back on track — and some traders are calling this the best entry point in months. ETH may be down, but it’s not out. If Pectra delivers, the narrative could flip fast.

TradFi trends

France gets strategic

France’s state-owned investment bank Bpifrance is diving deeper into digital assets, pledging up to €25 million to back local crypto start-ups, not with equity, but via direct token investments. The move is part of an expanded strategy to support projects in DeFi, tokenization, staking, and blockchain-based AI.

Calling the initiative “pioneering among sovereign wealth funds,” Bpifrance says it marks a new chapter in state-backed innovation. “We are convinced of the growing importance of these players in the coming years,” said Deputy CEO Arnaud Caudoux. “We want to increase the competitiveness and French presence in the digital asset field.”

The push is also a clear response to the U.S.’s rapidly advancing crypto agenda, with France positioning itself as a serious contender.

Blockchain

A new era of cross-chain crypto

Cosmos just took a giant leap for blockchain-kind. Its latest upgrade successfully sent a live transaction from Cosmos Hub to Ethereum and back, marking a breakthrough in cross-chain interoperability.

The upgraded Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol now supports faster, more secure connections beyond Cosmos, opening doors to Ethereum, Solana, and more. For developers, Eureka simplifies integration and enables new DeFi use cases with plug-and-play middleware.

“First Ethereum, then the world,” said Interchain Labs’ Barry Plunkett. With Eureka, Cosmos is making good on the promise of a truly interconnected crypto ecosystem — one seamless transaction at a time.

Macroeconomic round up

Macro week: jobs, tariffs, and Bitcoin’s next move

Crypto enters Q2 still feeling the effects of February’s hot inflation data, which triggered a broad market pullback. Bitcoin remained more resilient than altcoins, but the mood remains cautious ahead of a pivotal week for economic and policy signals:

• JOLTS Job Openings (Tue): Forecast ~7.7 million — a downside surprise could spark Fed rate-cut hopes and boost crypto.
• ADP Employment (Wed): Forecast 120,000 — weaker print may help risk sentiment; a beat could strengthen the dollar.
• Liberation Day Tariff Decision (Wed): Markets brace for new U.S. tariff announcements — a hard line could trigger volatility across crypto and equities.
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Forecast 226,000 — a higher number could reinforce recession worries and push Bitcoin into hedge-asset territory.
• US Employment Report / Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri): A comprehensive read on the labor market. Forecast: ~140,000 jobs added and 4.1% unemployment. A stronger report could lift the dollar and curb crypto gains. However, wage growth above 0.3% month-over-month may stoke inflation fears, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value.

The week’s most interesting data story

Bitcoin whales make quiet moves

While macro uncertainty dominates headlines, large Bitcoin holders have been accumulating. Since March 11, whale wallets have added 129,000 BTC, worth over $11.2 billion, marking the most aggressive accumulation since August 2024, per Glassnode. This quiet vote of confidence from major players adds a subtle but meaningful layer to the bullish case.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

• $2 billion – MARA’s new stock offering, with proceeds aimed at growing its Bitcoin treasury.
• $138,000 – Polymarket’s year-end BTC target analysis, implying a 60% upside from current levels.
• 60% – Bitcoin dominance is nearing a three-year high, up from 51% in December
• 10% – Proposed share of South Carolina public funds that could be allocated to Bitcoin.
• $60.2 billion – USDC’s new market cap record, driven by rising demand for cross-chain transfers.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing?

It’s always been a supply-demand affair.

Is this ETH’s recovery level?

All the tariff talk you need.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].