Dispatch #251: Bitcoin reports milestones and momentum in H1 2025

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• The next treasury asset

• Crypto portfolio adjustment

• A macro signal ahead

Market cast

Bitcoin holds the high ground ahead of macro triggers

Bitcoin is trading near the upper boundary of its weekly range, with momentum indicators still broadly supportive of the bullish trend. On the weekly chart, the Stochastic oscillator remains in overbought territory, but without signs of divergence or momentum loss. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects strong buying strength and remains below the overbought threshold of 70, leaving room for further upside. The MACD is comfortably above the zero line – another positive signal confirming upward momentum.

On the daily timeframe, momentum signals are more balanced. The RSI is in neutral territory, while the MACD holds just above its signal line, suggesting modest but positive momentum. The Stochastic oscillator remains overbought but does not yet show signs of reversal. However, the ADX, a trend strength indicator, is at low levels – highlighting a lack of directional conviction and increasing the likelihood of short-term consolidation.

Key resistance levels are seen at $110,000 and the recent all-time high near $112,000. Initial support sits at $104,000–$105,000, with stronger psychological backing at $100,000.

The big idea

Bitcoin’s H1 report

This week’s Dispatch #251 lands right at the midpoint of 2025 and what better time for a brief check of how Bitcoin is doing so far? Spoiler alert: from mortgages to treasuries, it’s been anything but quiet.

Bitcoin just got a new stamp of legitimacy – from U.S. housing policy. The FHFA has ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (U.S. Congress-established mortgage companies) to recognize crypto as eligible borrower reserves in mortgage underwriting. This move puts Bitcoin in America’s largest consumer credit system – not just as an asset, but as collateral. Regulators aren’t just tolerating digital assets anymore, they’re building them into the plumbing of personal finance. And if you're ahead of the curve, you're already putting your crypto to work – like through Nexo’s crypto-backed credit lines, which let you borrow while holding onto your assets.

On-chain movements show stability

After a historic run to all-time highs, Bitcoin is consolidating. Over $650 billion in profits have been realized this cycle (more than previous ones), triggering three waves of long-term holder profit-taking, especially from wallets over three years old. Yet, new buyers are stepping in. Wallets held for six or more months, likely institutional, have absorbed much of the supply. Spot and futures volume has slowed, but the handoff from old to new capital shows a maturing market, not a weakening one, with a key trend emerging yet again. See more in this week’s data story below.

Corporates go all-in

Strategy added 4,980 BTC in June, bringing its total to 597,325 BTC, over 2.8% of the supply. Its $84 billion “84/84” acquisition plan is underway, with $21 billion in unrealized gains. Japan’s Metaplanet has also leaped to the largest public Bitcoin holder in Asia after adding 10,000 in just three months to 13,350 BTC. It also plans to hit 210,000 BTC by 2027. 

In total, 134 public firms now hold BTC, including Tether’s Twenty One, Trump Media, and GameStop. Bitcoin is becoming a treasury staple. In ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT is the ETF breakout, not only in 2025, but of the decade. It hit $70 billion in AUM in just 341 trading days, faster than any ETF in U.S. history. June marked a third straight month of positive flows, with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $4 billion.

Adoption: Policy meets capital

President Trump is leaning into Bitcoin, calling it a relief valve for the dollar and a check on China. American Bitcoin, a mining firm backed by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., raised $220 million, including $10 million in BTC, to accumulate Bitcoin and buy mining rigs. The firm plans to go public later this year. The message: the U.S. President isn't just pro-Bitcoin in words – he’s investing hard capital.

By now, you know Bitcoin has always been a favorite in these pages. But in 2025, it’s more than that. It’s been the headline, the heartbeat, and the benchmark. Milestones and momentum aren’t just buzzwords this year – they’re the blueprint.

Ethereum

ETH reboots the narrative

Ether held steady above $2,400 this week, supported by an ETF revival as Ethereum spot ETFs saw a $283 million net inflow last week. Total AUM has climbed to nearly $10 billion, over 3% of ETH’s market cap. And there are more positive developments:

Treasury twist: Tom Lee, well-known for his Bitcoin calls, was appointed chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, which plans to make ETH its primary treasury asset. Backed by a $250 million raise, the firm aims to track ETH per share, mirroring MicroStrategy’s BTC model, further legitimizing Ethereum as corporate treasury material.

Protocol upgrade: A new proposal (EIP-7782) suggests halving Ethereum’s slot time to six seconds in the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade. If implemented, it could double block speed and boost DeFi performance, though at the cost of higher validator demands.

TradFi trends

40% in crypto? One advisor says yes.

Ric Edelman, one of the earliest mainstream voices backing digital assets, just turned up the dial, recommending up to 40% crypto allocations in portfolios. That’s a huge jump from his prior 1–5% call, and a reflection of what he calls crypto’s evolution into a “mainstream asset.”

Why the shift? Edelman points to regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and the crumbling 60/40 model. With longer life expectancies and the need for better returns, he says crypto now plays a critical role in modern portfolio construction, citing its low correlation and outsized upside.

Macroeconomic roundup

The labor market shows the signal

JOLTS Job Openings: May openings (out July 2) are expected to slip to 7.3 million. A sharper decline would signal labor softening, potentially boosting Bitcoin via dovish Fed expectations. A surprise rise could swing sentiment hawkish.

ADP Employment Report: Also on Tuesday, private payrolls are forecast at 120,000 after May’s weak 37,000. Another miss may lift risk assets; a beat could firm the dollar and weigh on BTC.

Initial Jobless Claims: Out Thursday, claims are forecast at 240,000. A higher print may spark recession fears and rate cut bets. A dip could strengthen the dollar and dampen crypto momentum.

Non-Farm Payrolls: June payrolls (Thursday) are expected at 115,000, down from 139,000. Slower hiring would support a cooling economy narrative—bullish for Bitcoin if it brings a Fed pivot closer.

Unemployment Rate: Expected to edge up to 4.3%. A rise would underscore labor market softening and likely fuel further crypto-friendly policy speculation.

The week’s most interesting data story

Bitcoin’s HODL mode

Over 72% of all mined BTC is now held in long-term storage, rising from 13.9 million to 14.37 million BTC since the start of the year. This isn’t a new trend – it’s an extension of a long-running pattern where investors choose to store, not spend. Many of these holders aren’t selling – they’re enjoying the benefits of permanent holding with crypto-backed credit lines that let them access liquidity without leaving the market. With more Bitcoin effectively pulled from circulation and demand still building, the stage may be set for a familiar dynamic: a supply squeeze. Could the market be quietly preparing for the next bullish impulse?

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

• $1.1 billion – June ETH ETF inflows rebound sharply as institutions pile back in.
• 98% – ETH/BTC futures volume hits near-parity, flipping 2024’s bearish sentiment.
• $1.17 billion – Vanadi Coffee greenlights BTC accumulation, set to become Spain’s largest holder.
• $17.8 billion – H1 crypto fund inflows match 2024’s ETF boom pace.
• 750,000 – Stablecoin users on Ethereum hit record weekly highs.

Hot topic

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Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].