Dispatch #249: Bitcoin – The new face of stability

Jun 17•6 min read

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In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

  • ETH sharks bite in
  • Interest rates week
  • Is BTC volatility fading?

Market cast

BTC in brief consolidation?

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $107,000 level, but the broader trend remains bullish. On the weekly chart, momentum indicators stay strong: oscillators are near or in overbought territory, signaling ongoing buying pressure and potential for further gains. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, price action looks more range-bound. Oscillators are now neutral, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is weakening—both signs of reduced trend strength and indecision.

For key levels, resistance sits at $110,000 and $112,000, just above the previous all-time high, with a stronger barrier at $120,000. Support lies at $104,000, with a firm psychological floor at $100,000. Looking ahead, the interest rate decision on Wednesday could be a catalyst, potentially determining Bitcoin’s next directional move.

The big idea

BTC stays cool in macro heat

It’s been an interesting past week for Bitcoin. CPI has landed. The Fed meets. Tariffs are looming. Geopolitics are in conflict. And yet… Bitcoin remains remarkably calm.

Once upon a time, a slight upward nudge in inflation or the hint of a rate hike would send BTC skittering off course. Now, amid a steady stream of macroeconomic turbulence – from trade tariff escalations to persistent inflation volatility – Bitcoin just keeps orbiting above $100,000, as if it’s been here all along. In fact, BTC has quietly absorbed more shocks in recent weeks than it would have tolerated in past cycles:

  • May CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but below forecasts – a “cooling” that would normally drive outsized risk-on enthusiasm. Bitcoin? Barely blinked.
  • Fed Chair Powell is expected to hold rates steady this week (over 95% chance, per CME FedWatch), despite political pressure to slash by a full point. Markets aren’t thrilled. Bitcoin? Still cruising.
  • The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East briefly shaved 4% off BTC… only for it to rebound quickly and preserve its hedge status.

To be clear, Bitcoin is not divorced from macroeconomics. Liquidity, interest rates, and inflation still matter. But the magnitude of reaction is changing, and that might matter more. While the Fed holds rates at a 20-year high, central banks in Europe and China have already started easing. Historically, Bitcoin would have latched onto that divergence. Now, it seems to hover above the noise, feeding instead on long-term flows, including a record $5.23 billion in ETF net inflows last month.

Even the tariff tension, perceived to boost inflation, seems priced in. The May CPI came in cooler than expected despite the latest wave of protectionism, suggesting that inflation risks might be softer than feared, and that rate cuts later in the year are not off the table. But even if they weren’t coming? Bitcoin, for now, doesn’t seem to care. Perhaps we’re witnessing a subtle shift: Bitcoin isn’t just shaking off the Fed – it's beginning to outgrow it.

Yes, BTC has long been lumped in with the “risk-on” crowd. But a pattern is forming. Each macro data release has less of an effect. Each Fed move elicits fewer trading spasms. Perhaps it’s because institutional inflows and ETF structures are creating more resilient demand. Perhaps it’s the hardening perception of Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge. Or maybe it’s just a maturing market that’s seen this movie before. 

Either way, as the Fed deliberates this week, Bitcoin could likely remain its usual self: quietly unbothered, with eyes on the next all-time high, with the confidence of a truly established asset. And that might be the biggest idea for now.

Ethereum

ETH closes the gap and takes the lead

ETH outperformed BTC in the past week, and there are good reasons for that. While the price action remains measured, beneath the surface Ethereum is gathering strength. From whale accumulation to institutional validation and treasury adoption.

Here’s what’s beneath:

  • Whale accumulation: Ethereum wallets holding 1,000–100,000 ETH added 1.49 million ETH ($3.79 billion) over the past month, now holding nearly 27% of supply. Retail wallets, meanwhile, are taking profits.
  • ETF inflows: Spot ETH ETFs posted $1.37 billion in inflows over a 19-day streak (a record) – though that streak ended Friday with a modest $2.1 million outflow.

TradFi trends

The SEC steps back, the corporations step up

The SEC is dialing down its crypto supervision, backing off 14 proposed rules that once aimed to tighten control over digital asset custody. It’s a clear sign of changing tides in Washington – and the timing couldn’t be better.

Today, the U.S. Senate is voting on the GENIUS Act, a landmark bill that would lay the groundwork for stablecoin regulation, mandating a range of rules. The goal? To bring stablecoins into the regulated fold without choking off innovation.

Why does it matter? Because some of the world's leading merchants Amazon, Walmart, and Expedia are already exploring stablecoin-based payment rails. The disruption isn’t theoretical anymore. TradFi feels it. And crypto? It’s finally being invited to the table.

Macroeconomic roundup

A weekful of macroeconomic signals

The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25–4.50%, with markets closely watching Powell’s tone and the updated projections for clues on future cuts – but it's not the only event offering insight into the global economic outlook.

  • U.S. Retail Sales (June 17): May’s print showed a 0.9% contraction. Weak data could stoke dollar softness and fuel Fed pivot speculation.
  • Bank of Japan Rate Decision (June 17): No change, but recent rises in long-term bond yields have markets watching for tweaks in the BoJ’s policy tone.
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (June 18): Shifted due to Juneteenth, this release follows a streak of elevated claims and softening labor signals—key for rate path expectations.
  • UK CPI & Bank of England Decision (June 18–19): Back-to-back inflation and rate decisions could steer GBP volatility. Sticky inflation may keep the BoE cautious for now.

The week’s most interesting data story

BTC’s volatility (almost) gone?

Further to our points in The Big Idea, here’s the truth in a chart: Bitcoin is growing up. Once the poster child for volatility, its price swings have calmed significantly over time – quietly outpacing the Nasdaq in stability after recent macro turns and twists. With lower beta, steadier drawdowns, and ETF-era institutional flows, Bitcoin is behaving less like a gamble and more like a hedge. An asset class is born.

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The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

  • $2.5 billion – Ethereum whales scooped up over 818,000 ETH on June 15, marking the largest daily accumulation since 2018.
  • €80 million – Estimated cost of wasted electricity in France last year that lawmakers say could’ve been turned into economic value via Bitcoin mining.
  • $2.3 billion – The size of Trump Media’s newly registered Bitcoin treasury deal, approved by the SEC.
  • $1.05 billion – Strategy’s latest Bitcoin buy: 10,100 BTC added in one week at an average price of $104,000.
  • $463 million – SharpLink’s 176,271 ETH purchase makes it the largest publicly traded Ether holder.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Permanent holder sounds so right.

The traders’ battle at $105,000.

Another perspective on ETH’s impressive performance.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].