Dispatch #247: How old Bitcoin supply powered the all-time high

Jun 03•6 min read

Highlights:

  • All of ETH’s developments
  • Labour market in focus
  • The newest BTC whalе

Market cast

Is BTC crossing bullish territory?

Bitcoin’s technical posture remains broadly bullish on the weekly chart, with price action still above the key moving averages. However, momentum indicators are showing signs of fatigue: both the RSI and stochastic oscillator are rolling over from overbought territory, hinting at slowing upside strength—but not necessarily a trend reversal.

On the daily chart, the outlook is more neutral-to-cautious. The RSI is flatlining near mid-range, the MACD has slipped below its signal line, and the stochastic oscillator is nearing oversold levels. Meanwhile, the ADX reads just 20.49, reinforcing the case for a low-volatility, sideways phase in the short term. Still, the presence of a golden cross—where the 50-day SMA sits above the 200-day SMA—keeps the door open for a potential medium-term rally.

Technically, resistance lies near 107,000 and 110,000, while the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands provides dynamic support. A daily close above these zones could clear the path toward the psychological 120,000 mark. Conversely, immediate support levels rest at 103,000 and 100,000.

Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports may serve as a catalyst, offering further clues on whether Bitcoin’s next move will be an upside breakout or continued consolidation.

The big idea

Bitcoin’s supply sparks digital treasure hunt

Bitcoin’s surge past its previous all-time high wasn’t just another rally. With freshly mined supply dwindling and long-dormant UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) holding the lion’s share of BTC off‐chain, traders have effectively been turned into crypto‐archaeologists, scouring old wallets for any coins they can dust off. 

  • Scarcity catches fire As Bitcoin punched through $110,000 last Friday, UTXO‐age data revealed that over 73 % of coins hadn’t moved in six months or longer. In other words, most BTC is effectively locked away – either in cold storage, paper wallets, or lost wallets, or earning you passive yield in your Nexo account – leaving only a trickle of spending supply. The compressed float meant every bid up around the new high had to come from someone willing to coax dormant coins back into circulation. This dynamic played to sellers’ advantage, letting them set the price while buyers chased scarcity.

  • UTXO aging = price fuel CryptoQuant’s UTXO Age Bands show that the 6–12 month and 7–10 year cohorts rose in step with price (ρ = 0.78 and 0.87), meaning both mid‐term holders and long‐time HODLers were content to keep their coins, possibly generating passive income on Nexo? Conversely, the 2–3 year and 5–7 year bands fell as price rose (ρ = –0.90 and –0.86), signaling that only a handful of mid‐term holders were willing to take profits. Put simply, most old‐school holders saw no reason to sell – making marginal inflows almost the sole driver of price discovery and tilting market power decisively toward the buy side. That’s how we got the new all-time high.

  • A cushion against downside With a supermajority of coins now functionally stored, Bitcoin’s downside volatility naturally softens. Fewer coins on exchanges mean sellers looking to take profit – whether from the 2021–22 cohort or short-term traders – face a challenge. They’ll need to outbid an already fierce line of spot buyers.. Unless short‐term UTXOs begin to swell in size, that balance of power stays tilted toward patient HODLers.

  • What could trip it up? A few mid‐term holders (2021–22 buyers) have shown selective spending, hinting that distribution could pick up if the price stalls. As things stand, every fresh inflow – whether from institutions or retail – is forced to fight for a shrinking pool of “active” coins. That dynamic keeps Bitcoin’s ladder pointing up.

In short, this is not a typical rally built on fresh mining supply or a burst of retail FOMO. It’s a rally powered by scarcity, patience, and a market structure that rewards long‐term positioning. As dormant coins continue to age out of regular circulation, marginal bids will carry the torch for price discovery – making each new buyer, big or small, a critical participant in Bitcoin’s next stretch of uncharted territory.

Ethereum

Tech + reg = momentum

Ethereum’s latest Pectra upgrade is holding up well. The network doubled its data capacity per block (“blobs”), and testing shows even home setups can handle it. That gives developers breathing room as they gear up for the next big milestone: PeerDAS under the Fusaka upgrade.

Meanwhile, Ethereum secured a major regulatory win. The SEC clarified that most staking activities, including self-staking and delegation, don’t qualify as securities. That clears a path for ETF staking in the future — good news for institutional flows.

So, how’s all that translating to price? Ether outperformed Bitcoin over the past week and briefly tapped $2,725 – its highest level since February. With bullish technical patterns flashing and ETFs attracting steady inflows, $2,700 may soon turn from ceiling to springboard.

Hot in crypto

GameStop makes it to the top 15

This week’s breakout crypto move didn’t come from a coin – but from GameStop. The retail trader icon just bought 4,710 BTC, instantly becoming a top-15 corporate holder with over $500M in Bitcoin.

The move aligns with GameStop’s plan to diversify its reserves. Corporate BTC adoption could hit $330 billion by 2029 – GameStop may be early, but it’s playing a long game.

TradFi trends

The White House shows commitment to crypto

The lines between traditional finance and crypto are fading fast — and now, Washington is helping accelerate the shift. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has called Bitcoin a “strategically important” asset and predicted that U.S. ownership could double to 100 million. For Vance, Bitcoin isn’t just a hedge against inflation and policy risk — it’s a foundational piece of the next financial system.

Backing that up, Vance declared Operation Chokepoint 2.0 – the alleged regulatory crackdown on crypto-banking ties – officially dead. He criticized the past “weaponization of federal regulations” and confirmed President Trump’s administration’s intent to align federal policy with crypto innovation. With political momentum growing and Bitcoin near all-time highs.

Macroeconomic roundup

All eyes on U.S. jobs

A packed week of U.S. labor data could stir volatility across crypto markets. With Bitcoin increasingly sensitive to macro signals, here are the key labor market prints to watch, and some more coming:

  • JOLTS Job Openings (June 3): April openings fell to a 7-month low. Another drop could signal cooling demand for labor and revive hopes for rate cuts.

  • ADP Employment Report (June 4): Forecasts suggest a rebound in private job creation after April’s slowdown. A miss may fuel dovish Fed bets.

  • Initial Jobless Claims (June 5): Claims hit a 2.5-year high last week. Further increases could point to softening in the job market.

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (June 6): May’s jobs report is expected to show a hiring slowdown. A weak print may support a shift in Fed tone; a strong one could pressure risk assets.

The week’s most interesting data story

Demand for (limited) supply

Bitcoin’s latest rally has reawakened interest in long-dormant supply. With no new issuance to meet soaring demand, old coins aren’t just moving – they’re being acquired. UTXO data shows that as fresh supply dries up, even decade-old stacks have started to infiltrate the market. This isn’t speculative churn – it’s pure supply and demand at work.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

  • $286 million – Weekly crypto fund inflows, driven by Ethereum’s best run since 2024. 

  • $300 million – Webus plans an XRP reserve to power global chauffeur payments.

  • $7.2 billion – Target valuation for Circle’s long-anticipated IPO, per a fresh SEC filing.

  • $5,000 – Arthur Hayes sees ETH hitting a new all-time high this year, driven by stablecoin growth and Layer-2 momentum.

  • 705 BTC – MicroStrategy added $75.1M in Bitcoin at an average price of $106,495.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Does your team hold BTC and the CL?

The growing power of Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin’s security all-time high

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].