Dispatch #246: How Bitcoin reached all-time highs

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• ETH’s role in crypto
• Major macro week (again)
• Banks and the stablecoins

Market cast

Is BTC crossing bullish territory?

Bitcoin’s technical outlook remains bullish, with momentum indicators continuing to support the uptrend. On the weekly chart, the stochastic oscillator is holding in overbought territory, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought zone – all signaling strong underlying momentum.

On the daily chart, momentum has cooled modestly, with the RSI and stochastic easing from recent highs and the MACD marginally slipping below its signal line. However, these shifts appear more like a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend rather than a reversal.

Crucially, Bitcoin has just confirmed a golden cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moving above the 200-day SMA – a historically powerful bullish formation. The last golden cross in October 2024 preceded a more than 50% price surge, and this fresh crossover may once again mark the beginning of an extended move higher.

The big idea

The makings of an all-time high

As Dispatch editors (and our Co-Founder Antoni Trenchev) have been commenting across interviews and media appearances all week, Bitcoin’s breakout didn’t exactly come out of nowhere. But for our loyal Dispatch readers, here’s the full picture: the volcano has erupted – just as we hinted last week – and Bitcoin has roared past its previous record to print a new all-time high of $111,965. This time, the signs were there – stronger, clearer, and louder than ever:

Accumulation across the board: For the first time since January, every wallet cohort—from whales to minnows—entered a strong accumulation phase. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score hit a perfect 1.0, signaling aggressive, widespread buying.

ETF inflows back with a vengeance: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs clocked $2.75 billion in net inflows last week and $25 billion in trading volume – the biggest since December. BlackRock’s IBIT now holds 3.3% of all BTC, leading a pack of institutional buyers that just won’t quit.

Options market aiming sky-high: The most popular call option for June expiry? A $300K strike, with more than $1 billion stacked in long-term bullish positions across various levels. Not subtle.

The big players are circling: A fresh report by ETF issuer Bitwise and UTXO Management projects that up to 20% of all BTC could land on institutional balance sheets by 2026, driven by public company adoption, sovereign funds, and wealth platforms.

Meanwhile, this latest rally has come without the typical retail surge – indicators like app activity and social buzz are still simmering quietly on the back burner. Which may be exactly why it feels like we’re entering something more durable than a hype cycle.

So yes, Bitcoin has erupted, just as our forecast in last week’s issue. And if accumulation stays strong, inflows keep coming, and policy winds blow in Bitcoin’s favor, we may soon find ourselves in that rarest of places in crypto: price discovery – uncharted, unpredictable, and just getting warmed up.

Ethereum

Holding the line, eyeing the role

Ethereum’s price action is on a mission – climbing with conviction, bouncing off $2,470–$2,495, and reclaiming the $2,600 pivot. A surge to $2,597 came with heavy volume, but resistance near $2,800 is starting to bite. Volatility hit as traders took profits, but short-term support is holding around $2,548.

Beyond the charts, Vitalik Buterin sees a bigger role. As Sweden and Norway rethink going fully cashless amid war fears, Buterin argues Ethereum could fill the gap – if it gets tougher, more private, and truly decentralized. The future may belong to ETH, but only if it survives the stress test of reality.

Hot in crypto

June’s token unlocks

Over $3.3 billion in tokens are set to hit the market this June as vesting periods expire. Here’s a closer look at the major unlocks for Aptos, Sui, and Arbitrum:

• Sui (SUI): The asset is set to unlock 44 million tokens on June 1. The largest portion – around $70 million – will go to Series B investors, with the remainder allocated to the Mysten Labs treasury, early contributors, and community reserves. 
• Aptos (APT): Unlocks amount to 11.31 million tokens in June. Allocations go to core contributors, foundation, community, and early investors.
• Arbitrum (ARB): A 92.6 million token unlock is expected in June – smaller in scale but still noteworthy amid broader market unlock activity.

TradFi trends

Stablecoins hit $250 billion – now big banks want a piece

With stablecoins topping $250 billion in market cap, major U.S. banks – JPMorgan, Citi, BofA, and Wells Fargo – are eyeing a joint stablecoin project, according to media reports.

The move comes as the Senate advances the GENIUS Act, a bill that would enforce full dollar backing and audits for large issuers. Talks are early and could shift with U.S. crypto regulation still in flux – especially as Trump’s links to a rival stablecoin stir political tension.

Macroeconomic roundup

The big four this week

Bitcoin begins the week near all-time highs, but several upcoming U.S. economic releases could introduce volatility and shift investor sentiment across digital assets:

• Consumer Confidence – May 27: April’s index fell to its lowest level since 2011. More weakness could curb retail risk appetite.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes – May 28: The market expects only two rate cuts this year. A hawkish tone could weigh on BTC and other risk assets.
• Initial Jobless Claims – May 29: A surprise spike in claims could point to economic slowdown.
• Core PCE Price Index – May 30: The Fed’s favored inflation metric. A soft print could support digital assets; a hot reading might pressure valuations.

The week’s most interesting data story

Everybody (holding Bitcoin) in profit

Over 99% of all Bitcoin addresses are now in profit – a rare feat confirmed as BTC broke decisively above its previous all-time high of $109,000. Despite soaring prices, on-chain data shows limited profit-taking, even after short-term holders logged $11.4 billion in realized gains over the past month. Realized cap has now surpassed $900 billion for the first time, highlighting the depth of capital inflows driving this rally. With little selling pressure in sight, Bitcoin’s momentum in price discovery may be just beginning.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

• $3.3 billion – Weekly inflows into digital asset funds, extending a six-week streak and pushing YTD flows to a record $10.8B.
• 580,250 BTC – Strategy now holds nearly 3% of all Bitcoin, after a $427 million buy lifted its unrealized gains to $22.7 billion.
• $1 billion – Thursday inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $877M—its third-biggest day ever.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

FIFA adopts NFTs

Shouldn’t have been in for the short-term, then?

Glassnode experts at it again.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].