Dispatch #231: Is crypto bound to rebound?

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• BTC’s on the global asset map
• ETH’s tailwinds
• The potential of crypto ETFs

Market cast 

Bitcoin remains in-range

Bitcoin started the week in a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a 5% range of $94,700 to $99,200 since February 5, with $98,000 acting as a key resistance level. Markets flinched after President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with investors bracing for Wednesday’s CPI release. U.S. inflation expectations are sparking concerns that the Federal Reserve may extend its pause on rate cuts.

From a technical perspective, BTC/USD is consolidating around the $100,000 level on the weekly chart, which acts as key resistance. A decisive break above this level is required to confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. The next resistance level on the upside is around $106,500.

On the downside, critical support levels include the $95,500–$96,500, the recent low at $91,231, and the psychological $90,000 level. Additionally, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (SMA 20) on the weekly chart serves as a dynamic support. Oscillators across most time frames remain in the neutral zone, which is typical of a sideways market range.

The big idea

The (new) altcoin leaders?

While the altcoin market hasn't had its breakout moment yet, several recent developments suggest it may be approaching. On the macroeconomic side, inflation remains a key matter (as highlighted in this week's roundup below). However, exchange-traded products (ETPs) are gaining rapid traction, consistently driving asset growth and expanding market access. Yes, Bitcoin, we are looking at you. Now, four well-known assets are positioning themselves as strong candidates for ETPs. They could play a significant role in sparking the next altcoin season.

• Solana (SOL): The SEC’s review of a Solana ETF marks a shift as SOL now has five pending ETF proposals and rising institutional demand. If approved, it would be the first non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum ETF, further legitimizing the asset.
• Ripple (XRP): The race for a spot XRP ETF is on, with Bitwise and 21Shares leading the charge. JPMorgan even forecasted earlier this year that an XRP ETF could attract up to $8 billion in net inflows. 
• Litecoin (LTC): Bloomberg analysts suggest the SEC may approve multiple crypto ETFs at once, with LTC among the frontrunners. How so? It all has to do with its similarities with Bitcoin in its PoW operating mechanism, making it a strong candidate.
• Dogecoin (DOGE): NYSE Arca has filed with the SEC to list Grayscale’s spot Dogecoin ETF, offering DOGE exposure without direct ownership, with a 45-day review period.

The SEC's potential approval could signal a shift in how altcoins are perceived, moving them closer to mainstream investment. By recognizing these assets, the SEC may encourage institutional portfolios to diversify beyond Bitcoin, fostering liquidity and innovation. And that’s always a big idea.

Ethereum

The bullish case for ETH

Could Pectra be the catalyst for Ethereum’s price recovery? With the important upgrade scheduled for the mainnet in April, some investors think so. Spot ETH ETFs saw $420M in net inflows last week, outpacing Bitcoin for the first time in the chart below. 

Meanwhile, long-term holders are doubling down – Ethereum accumulation addresses hit a record $883M daily inflow on Feb. 7, bringing total holdings to 19.24M ETH.  It’s all noted by Citi bank analysts, who highlight Ethereum’s solid increase in total value locked. Now, where is that catalyst to bring it all together…

Solana

Solana’s future in focus

Investment giant VanEck has set an ambitious target for Solana, forecasting a 165% surge to $520 by the end of 2025. The company estimates Solana’s market cap will hit $250 billion, fueled by developer dominance and growing market share.“Our projection is supported by Solana’s increasing foothold in the smart contract platform market,” the firm noted. Solana has already climbed 102% over the past year – but if VanEck’s outlook holds, this could be just the beginning.

Hot in crypto

Hello, BERA

Berachain’s long-awaited mainnet is finally live, and so is $BERA  backed by a $3.1 billion in liquidity pre-launch. $BERA made its debut at $15 reaching $2.77 billion in trading volume as investors flocked to the token. Berachain’s innovative proof-of-liquidity consensus has emerged as a new player in the blockchain space. $BERA is available on Nexo to buy, trade, and borrow against.

Macroeconomic roundup

CPI watch time

Powell's Testimony: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before Congress on Wednesday, offering key insights into the Fed’s monetary stance and potential rate moves.

Inflation Watch: Markets are bracing for the January CPI report on February 12, with expectations that year-on-year CPI could fall to 2.5% (from 2.9%) as per the Fed’s 2% target, while core CPI may dip to 3.0% (from 3.2%). A softer print could reinforce expectations of rate cuts later in the year, while a surprise upside could prompt renewed hawkishness from the Fed.

Volatility Ahead? With macroeconomic signals in flux, traders brace for potential market swings as key data unfolds this week. For more updates on macroeconomic developments throughout the week, be sure to visit Nexo on X.

The week’s most interesting data story

BTC: a global-scale asset

Bitcoin’s realized cap has surged to $850 billion, reflecting $450 billion in net capital inflows since November 2022, per Glassnode. This measures the cumulative cost basis of all BTC in circulation and underscores Bitcoin’s increasing adoption by institutions and sovereign entities.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

• $250 billion – Solana’s market cap by year-end, as projected by VanEck.
• $5 trillion – Stablecoins are projected to reach this capitalization by 2030, driven by commercial adoption and digital assets growth.
• $108,000 – Bitcoin could potentially reach a new all-time high in February, according to Standard Chartered. 
• 7,633 BTC – Strategy expanded its Bitcoin holdings to a total treasury of 478,740 BTC at an average acquisition cost of $62,691 per BTC.
• 90% – Bloomberg ETF analysts estimate Litecoin’s probability of securing a spot ETP approval in 2025, the highest among altcoins.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

The map everybody in crypto talks about.

Time for some macroeconomic direction.

It’s one of the biggest Ethereum upgrades.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].