Dispatch #188: What Do Crypto Whales Feel?

Apr 20 3 min read

Dispatch

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

The Ultimate (Guessing) Sport 🏅
ETH’s Weekly Ups and Downs ↕️
The New Partners in Crypto 🫂

The Big Idea

Tension in the Bull Run?

It was just last month when many swore Bitcoin was going to $100,000 – the bull run was epic in the first quarter of 2024. Not that we’re that far off – over halfway there, with 90% of holders in profit. And this is all on the back of the highly-anticipated Bitcoin halving.

Yet, that run was abruptly paused this week as BTC visited March lows just above $60,000, when markets reacted fearfully to two big news:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement, citing inflation concerns, suggests that restrictive monetary policies will endure, a historically unfavorable scenario for Bitcoin.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East initially caused volatility, reflecting a (momentary) state of panic, as gold spiked on the other hand.

Perhaps the most reassuring fact for the moment is that large BTC hodlers, a.k.a. Bitcoin Whales refuse to sell, while accumulation addresses have garnered $1.7B in Bitcoin in a day.

Dispatch editors have gone in search of a bonafide crypto expert to validate how these market-movers feel. Not for lack of resources to wander far and wide, but luckily, we’ve found one on CNN. Nexo Co-founder Antoni Trenchev reckons that “if the previous halvings are anything to go by, it should take no longer than eight months for Bitcoin’s price to double in value.”

That would be a satisfying scenario to find ourselves in, but is there anything more for the affluent in the crypto ocean? One only needs to turn to the East, where spot Bitcoin ETFs are discussed in multiple states, with Hong Kong products already approved in principle.

It all sounds great for adoption, but will the whales share the view? Time will tell.

The Latest In…

All Eyes on the Price

Bitcoin’s signature block rewards halving has sparked discussion from big banking and asset management names with all eyes on the price:

The Mild One: Deutsche Bank's latest research report suggests that Bitcoin’s halving has already seen partial pricing into the market, noting a large rally is not expected.

The Bullish One: People are “dramatically underestimating” the halving, says Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley. He sees “consistent new demand ahead in 2024 and the setup for an impactful halving.”

The Bearish One: JP Morgan analysts assert that Bitcoin's impending halving won't ignite a bullish market, as they believe the event has already been factored into the asset's price.

Yet again, it’s Nexo’s own Antoni who explained it best: “Guessing the endgame for Bitcoin after each halving is the ultimate sport.”

The Latest In…

DeFi’s Big Partners

We always keep a close eye on the assets we support on Nexo. Here are three shining stars this week:

Sui (SUI) founders launched a collaboration with BytePlus, the venture arm of Tik Tok parent ByteDance, to enhance web3 gaming and SocialFi offerings on its blockchain network. BytePlus brings advanced recommendation solutions and AR products, while joint initiatives aim to foster community growth.

Aptos (APT) Labs teamed up with Microsoft, Brevan Howard, and SK Telecom to provide institutional access to decentralized finance through Aptos Ascend. The suite offers regulatory assistance, privacy tools, and KYC features, leveraging Microsoft's Azure services.

Ondo Finance (ONDO) expanded its tokenized Treasury offerings to the Cosmos ecosystem in partnership with Noble. This introduces USDY, a tokenized note backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries, and integrates Ondo's offerings with over 90 blockchains.

The Week’s Most Interesting Data Story

Bitcoin’s Road to Tranquility

Despite recent turbulence attributed to factors like the halving and geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin continues on its trajectory towards becoming a less volatile asset. Minimizing these fluctuations could indicate Bitcoin’s maturation as a store of value and means of exchange.