Dispatch #227: Bitcoin ETFs: An anniversary of demand

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• Bitcoin’s latest levels
• ETH’s arsenal
• Macro signals ahead

Market cast 

Bitcoin: Looking for a tailwind to catch?

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a correction within its broader bullish trend, with the 90-92K zone emerging as a key support level. This region could potentially trigger a price bounce. 

Oscillators are hovering in the neutral zone, reflecting market indecision on the next direction, while the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator points to bearish momentum in the short term. On the downside, the next significant support is around 87,500. Should Bitcoin move higher, a retest of the $100,000 level is likely, and sustained trading above this threshold will be crucial for extending the rally in the longer term.

The big idea

The first year of institutional Bitcoin hunger

Last week marked one year since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a milestone that cemented Bitcoin’s place in mainstream finance. Backed by heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity, these ETFs brought billions in assets under management and smashed trading records. BlackRock’s IBIT, for example, became one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history, underscoring Bitcoin’s growing legitimacy.

This wasn’t just a win for institutional players—it signaled a broader shift in how Bitcoin is perceived. Fidelity’s 2025 Look Ahead report frames this as the beginning of mass adoption, where Bitcoin matures into a sustainable investment asset.

And if you’re wondering whether it’s too late to invest, Fidelity offers reassurance: “We believe we are still incredibly early in this new era of sustainable adoption.” With institutional trust on the rise and ETFs bridging the gap between crypto and traditional portfolios, Bitcoin’s transformative journey is far from over.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s potential continues to unfold. Institutions and countries are taking note, with the Czech central bank exploring Bitcoin for reserves diversification and Oklahoma’s Bitcoin Freedom Act aiming to integrate Bitcoin into everyday transactions. Even Italy’s banking heavyweight, Intesa Sanpaolo, is getting in on the action, scooping up 11 Bitcoins like it’s the latest fashion trend. That’s always been a Big idea.

Ethereum

ETH’s bullish case in 2025

Ether (ETH) could rise to $12,000 in 2025 if key factors align, according to the media. The upcoming Pectra upgrade aims to boost efficiency and scalability, supporting ETH’s growth alongside broader adoption of real-world assets (RWAs) and Ethereum-based ETFs. Emerging sectors like AI and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) also bolster Ethereum’s outlook. Options market data reveals 250% more call options than puts, signaling strong bullish sentiment.

Solana

Shooting for $400 in 2025?

It seems Dispatch editors may have been a bit too harsh on Solana (SOL) in the past, as a new, more positive prediction suggests it could surpass $400 in 2025. This potential growth is driven by strong retail demand and the anticipation of a US-based Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF). Major asset managers like VanEck and Grayscale are vying for ETF approval, with decisions expected as early as this month. 

Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, highlighted Solana's appeal due to its affordability compared to Bitcoin and Ether, making it an attractive option for investors. Søndergaard also expressed confidence that ETF approval will likely come in 2025, similar to the path Bitcoin and Ethereum took.

Adoption

Bitcoin beats the internet

Bitcoin adoption is outpacing the rise of transformative technologies like the internet and mobile phones, BlackRock reports. Since 2009, Bitcoin has grown from a niche idea to a global asset, fueled by demographic trends, economic shifts, and the digital transformation of finance. 

Younger “digital natives” are leading the charge, embracing Bitcoin far more than Gen X or Baby Boomers. Their comfort with technology and preference for digital-first solutions make them the primary demographic behind crypto adoption. BlackRock notes that in times of crisis, Bitcoin’s independence from central authorities resonates strongly with investors.

TradFi trends

Doubling-down on crypto

Financial advisors are increasingly warming to crypto as both clients and the broader market show growing enthusiasm. 

• A recent report reveals that 56% of advisors are more likely to invest in digital assets this year, per a Bitwise-VettaFi report. The shift is driven by a strong crypto rally, clearer regulations, and a pro-crypto political environment. 
• Advisor portfolios integrating crypto have doubled to 22%, while 71% of clients already hold digital assets independently. 
• 67% of advisors expect Bitcoin to rise in 2025 and 40% predict prices of $250,000–$1 million by 2030.

TL;DR: Crypto’s role as a mainstream asset is solidifying.

Macroeconomic roundup

All eyes on inflation

This week, several macroeconomic events could drive volatility and create trading opportunities: 

Producer price index (Tuesday): Producer inflation data could shape Fed rate expectations, affecting investor sentiment.

Consumer price index (Wednesday): Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the USD, pressuring Bitcoin and other assets.

BlackRock Earnings (Wednesday): Strong performance in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs may boost institutional confidence.

Jobless Claims (Thursday): Resilient labor market data could reinforce higher rates, weighing on risk assets.

The week’s most interesting data story

Sellers’ capitulation?

Bitcoin sellers may have exhausted their selling pressure after the latest correction, as evidenced by a significant decline in sell-side liquidity on exchanges. According to analysts, Bitcoin’s liquidity inventory ratio has dropped dramatically, signaling a tightening supply that could drive prices up. While demand has slowed slightly, the reduced selling activity suggests that the worst of the downward pressure may be behind us, setting the stage for potential price stabilization or growth in the short term.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

Can we have both?

Is another run up the charts incoming?

The macro forces are in play.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].