Markets Today - October 28, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin climbs towards $81,000 as an SK Hynix-led chip rally lifts risk appetite ahead of the Fed decision

Bitcoin climbed about 2% to near $81,500 on Wednesday, recovering from this week’s low of $79,497, as record earnings from SK Hynix set off a global rally in AI-linked chip stocks ahead of the Fed decision later today. U.S. futures reflect the tech lead, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.4%, the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Dow down 0.2%, after the Kospi jumped more than 6% and Samsung gained about 9% in Seoul, while the STOXX 600 slipped 0.25% on caution before the Fed and the Big Tech earnings. The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5% as the rally sapped demand for havens, the dollar index is steady near a two-week high at 102.40, gold has slipped to $4,045 after being sold alongside tech last week, and Brent is near $115. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, with a hold priced at about 91% per CME FedWatch, so attention is on Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference and whether December’s hike, priced at about 77%, stays on the table. The rally cuts both ways for the Fed: it lifts risk appetite, but it also eases financial conditions, which strengthens the case for further tightening. The total crypto market cap sits around $2.8 trillion.

Bitcoin
Derivatives suggest the advance owes more to price than to new leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin futures was essentially unchanged on a 2.3% gain, so traders did not add exposure into the rally, and funding is only modestly positive, just under the 0.01% neutral level, so long positions are not crowded. ETF demand is firming, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows strengthen on Tuesday to $175 million from $110 million on Monday. In options, the premium paid for short-dated downside protection has narrowed sharply, as the one-week skew fell to under 1% from almost 10% a week earlier, though maturities from one to six months still price a clear preference for puts. The busiest Bitcoin contract over the past day was a $65,000 put expiring October 30, a hedge against a much deeper decline.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether trades near $2,370, XRP near $1.33 and Solana near $102, all firmer in line with Bitcoin on the technology rally. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded a milder outflow of $60 million on Tuesday, compared with $88 million on Monday. Ether’s open interest grew less than its price and funding is mild, so the advance does not rely on stretched leverage, and the most-traded Ether option is a $3,400 call expiring October 29, an upside position far above the current market.

Macro & Institutional
The Fed is expected to hold, so the information is in the details. In September’s projections most officials penciled in one more hike this year, with December the likeliest timing. Three things matter: whether any voting members dissent in favor of a hike, since three or more would signal rising urgency; how Warsh treats the easing in financial conditions, with the 10-year yield about 36 basis points below its October 7 peak of 5.36%, its highest since 2002, which could strengthen the case for tightening if he acknowledges it; and his view of inflation, with consumer prices above expectations for two straight months, oil elevated and diesel at record highs, which leaves little room to lean toward growth. Warsh prefers not to give explicit guidance, so his tone may matter more than any single signal.

The tech rally reverses last week’s AI-driven selloff. SK Hynix reported third-quarter operating profit of 83.33 trillion won, up about sevenfold and above estimates, with record revenue and a plan to return 100 trillion won to shareholders, and said its memory capacity is sold out through 2029 with shortages lasting to at least 2030, sending its shares up more than 10% in Seoul and Micron up more than 3% premarket. The move ran ahead of new positioning, with open interest in a leveraged semiconductor fund up only 2% on a 12% gain, so it is not driven by crowded long bets. The next test comes after the close, when Microsoft and Alphabet report, with Amazon on Thursday. The three plan to spend up to $600 billion on capital expenditure this year, and investors want evidence that returns justify it.

Currencies are trading central bank surprises. The dollar index is steady near a two-week high, with the euro and sterling soft on French fiscal strain ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, where a hold at 2.50% is expected. The New Zealand dollar fell 1.1% to $0.5616 after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly held at 2.75% when markets expected more tightening, while the Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.7036 on stronger consumer prices, and the yen is softer at 157.98 ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan decision. Gold is lower with the dollar firmer, and Brent is near $115 as renewed attacks on Saudi energy facilities test diplomacy.

Looking Ahead
Today the Fed announces its decision, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, the key event for rates. With a hold expected, attention is on any dissents, his reading of easier financial conditions and energy-driven inflation, and whether December stays on the table. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, the first big read on whether AI spending is paying off. Thursday brings third-quarter GDP and the September PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the first hard inflation data after the decision, along with the ECB decision, a seven-year Treasury auction and Amazon’s earnings. Friday brings the Bank of Japan decision. U.S. midterm elections follow on November 3 and payrolls on November 6. For Bitcoin, the Fed’s tone on December is the swing factor, since higher rates weigh on speculative assets and this bounce has come from tech, not from crypto-specific demand.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.