Markets Today - November 4, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin recovers above $79,000 as clarity after the midterms and strong chip earnings lift risk appetite

Bitcoin recovers to above $79,000 on Wednesday after an early dip toward $75,600, as markets welcomed greater clarity following the midterm elections and risk appetite improved. U.S. futures have recovered their early losses and are higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.1%, the Nasdaq-100 up 1.0% and the Dow up 1.6%, supported by AMD, which is up about 7% premarket after raising its data-center outlook, while the STOXX 600 is up 1.2%, its best day since July. The dollar index has eased to a one-month low near 101.4, with the euro and sterling at their strongest in about two weeks and seven weeks, gold has rebounded about 3% to $4,046 and Brent is near $102. Signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and a firmer tone in tech support a constructive backdrop, with this week’s labor data the next test for the Fed’s December decision. The total crypto market cap sits around $2.7 trillion.

Macro & Institutional
Markets took the Democratic win in stride. Futures fell as much as 2.5% on early counts and then recovered fully, which suggests investors saw the outcome as adding clarity and not as changing the growth story. Early questions about AI policy briefly weighed on tech, but AMD’s results helped restore confidence, with data-center revenue nearly doubling to $8.55 billion, fourth-quarter guidance of about $17 billion above expectations and a forecast of more than 80% revenue growth in 2027, despite a charge of more than $1 billion tied to warrants granted to customers. The rebound follows a 15% fall in the semiconductor index in October, so part of it is relief.

The economy continues to show resilience, with job openings at a four-month high and factory orders beating expectations. That puts this week’s labor data in focus, since strong hiring would keep a December hike on the table, while softer numbers would ease pressure on the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to near 4.93%, and the dollar’s slide to a one-month low reflects investors weighing how policy could affect AI-related spending and, with it, growth and the case for further rate hikes.

European shares were led by healthcare after Novo Nordisk raised its outlook, and euro-zone inflation rose to a three-year high on energy costs, firming bets on another ECB hike in December. Gold’s rebound reflects the softer dollar after its October slide, and Brent eased as diplomatic signals reduced supply worries.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin ticked up after a short-lived dip. It touched about $75,600 as early election returns arrived, then recovered above $78,000 as the outcome became clear and equity futures erased their losses. Options pricing reflects the calmer tone: one-week implied volatility has eased to about 34% from about 41% in the early-morning spike, demand for downside protection has returned to where the day began, and election-day block trades totaled about $660 million of Bitcoin options, more than double the prior day, with call buying outweighing call selling by roughly four to one.

Futures activity points to repositioning more than new leverage. Crypto futures volume rose 27% while open interest rose 3%, Bitcoin’s open interest increased less than its price, and about $469 million of leveraged positions were reset, so the advance is not leaning on added borrowing. Market orders have turned to a small net buy bias after leaning toward selling a day earlier, and the busiest Bitcoin options are mostly calls.

ETF demand is the piece still to come. U.S. spot funds saw about $515 million of outflows across the first two trading days of November, matching the whole of October, per SoSoValue. If Bitcoin holds above $78,000 while ETFs are still redeeming, it would suggest other buyers are absorbing the supply, and a return to inflows would add a further source of demand, with $80,000 to $82,000 the next resistance zone.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether trades near $2,320, XRP near $1.30 and Solana near $93, all higher with Bitcoin as bargain buying returned after weeks of losses. Ether’s open interest rose faster than its price, a sign of new money entering, while its options remain more defensive than Bitcoin’s, with four of the six most active contracts puts.

Looking Ahead
Today’s ADP report showed private employers adding 86,000 jobs in October, ahead of the 67,000 expected, a sign the labor market remains on steady ground. Thursday brings U.S. jobless claims, a check on layoffs, and the Bank of England decision. Friday brings October payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, the week’s key event, since steady hiring and wage growth would keep a December Fed hike on the table while softer data would ease the pressure, followed by the University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The Fed’s next decision is on December 9. For Bitcoin, ETF flows and Friday’s jobs data are the signals to watch.

Author: Neil Steinhardt, Head of Nexo U.S.
For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.