Markets Today - June 4, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

​​Bitcoin tests $61,000 as bottom signals emerge and U.S.-Iran talks inch forward

The crypto market is navigating one of its more challenging sessions of the year, with the total market cap slipping to $2.18 trillion. Bitcoin touched $61,300 overnight before partially recovering to around $62,500, as a combination of institutional outflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and the rotation into AI equities continues to weigh on sentiment. The macro picture is offering cautious relief: Israel and Lebanon have renewed their ceasefire, Brent crude has eased toward $96, gold is recovering to around $4,465, and President Trump has signalled that progress on Iran talks could come as soon as this weekend. The week's defining data point — Friday's nonfarm payrolls — arrives tomorrow to either tighten or loosen the Fed's already constrained policy space.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $62,500, recovering from an overnight low of $61,300 but still down roughly 5% on the day. Two on-chain signals are converging at current levels that warrant attention. The supply of Bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the supply in profit for the first time this cycle — 10.5 million BTC underwater against 9.8 million in profit for a crossover that has historically aligned with market lows, though the duration of such periods has varied. Simultaneously, $61,300 corresponds to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, a long-term support tested in every prior cycle. A close below $60,000 would be the next level to watch, with the realized price near $54,000 as the deeper structural reference.

Open interest has pulled back from record highs above 800,000 BTC to around 766,000 BTC, indicating leveraged positions are being unwound rather than fresh directional bets added. Strategy's anticipated buyback following last week's sale is the near-term catalyst to watch. The view is shared by Standard Chartered, characterizing current levels as a buying zone and arguing the worst of the drawdown may be behind us.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is trading around $1,750, down 6.5% on the day. XRP fell 4.1% to $1.19, Solana, Cardano, and BNB each declined between 5% and 9%. Dogecoin fell 4%.

Solana is a notable exception in derivatives: open interest surged to a record 72.16 million tokens even as prices declined — a combination that typically signals aggressive short accumulation. SOL has also broken below its February low, a technical deterioration that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have so far avoided, making it the weakest of the major assets on a relative basis.

Macro & Institutional
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewal is the most constructive geopolitical development of the week. The agreement, contingent on a complete Hezbollah withdrawal south of the Litani River, removes a key sticking point in U.S.-Iran negotiations. 

Brent crude is easing toward $96 as markets partially price a potential Hormuz reopening. Wednesday's ADP report showed 122,000 private sector jobs added in May — above expectations, while the ISM services index rose to 54.5, with the prices-paid component hitting its highest level in nearly four years. Both readings reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative while signalling that the economy is absorbing the energy shock without breaking. The dollar is holding near a two-month high.

Broadcom reported a 48% revenue surge driven by AI chip demand, but shares fell in after-hours trading as guidance failed to meet elevated expectations — a first sign that the AI trade may be entering a phase where execution matters as much as narrative.

Looking Ahead
Tomorrow's jobs data is the week's defining macro moment — nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings all released Friday, together forming the most complete picture yet of how the labour market is holding up under the energy shock. A strong print locks in higher-for-longer and extends the headwind for risk assets; a weak one reopens the rate debate without necessarily triggering a crypto recovery on its own. Any confirmation of a U.S.-Iran deal this weekend would unwind the oil premium, ease inflation expectations, and potentially mark a meaningful turning point for this cycle. For Bitcoin, the question is whether current levels represent a durable floor or the beginning of a more extended base-building phase. The on-chain evidence is consistent with prior cycle lows, but history also shows that touching those levels and staying above them are two different things.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.