Markets Today - October 8, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin slips to a three-week low near $83,000 as Fed minutes keep a December hike in play

Bitcoin trades near $83,000 on Thursday after touching a near three-week low of $82,300, as the Fed's September minutes showed officials in no hurry to hike again in October but still expecting another increase by year-end. CME FedWatch prices roughly a 20% chance of an October hike and about 80% by December. The total crypto market cap sits around $2.8 trillion. Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 7,798.14, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.2% to 27,538.69 and the Dow down 0.7% to 51,179.22, and futures point lower again, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, the Nasdaq-100 down 0.8% and the Dow down 0.9%. Oil is above $104 a barrel, the 30-year Treasury yield sits near 5.72%, close to a 24-year high, the euro is at a 17-month low, and gold trades near $4,124.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin has slipped below $82,500 as oil, Treasury yields and a Fed that still sees another hike by year-end keep appetite for risk in check, and fresh buying by Strategy this week did little to slow the decline.

The ETF bid that powered the August to September rally has gone choppy. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $487.1 million of outflows on Wednesday, the most since June 25, per SoSoValue, roughly two standard deviations below the 90-day average of about $92 million of daily inflows. After $2.65 billion of inflows in September, October is down $165.6 million, and the last six sessions have swung between small inflows and outflows. 

Bitcoin is also testing the floor that has held since the rally stalled on September 21. A sustained break would expose $80,000 and end the pattern of higher lows on the daily chart. The next zone is $80,500 to $81,500, which holds last month's local highs and the 50-day moving average. How buyers respond there sets the path: dip buyers would bring a quick retest of the highs, while leveraged longs stepping back could open a faster move toward $76,000, the recent lows, or $72,000, the 200-day moving average.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether trades near $2,567, down slightly, while XRP and Solana's token slipped around 3.6% each. U.S. spot Ether ETFs have recorded outflows for seven straight sessions, following a strong September, with no inflow day so far in October. Wednesday's $160.8 million outflow followed $201.9 million on Tuesday, the largest of the streak, and October's five sessions have drained about $506 million, roughly three times the $165.6 million net outflow from Bitcoin funds over the same period. Solana announced a partnership with Samsung that will bring stablecoin support to Samsung Wallet and Samsung Pay, with U.S. users able to make cross-border USDC transfers from late October, joining PayPal and Western Union on the network. The token fell despite the news, with the integration story moving ahead of the price.

Macro & Institutional
The Fed's September minutes were hawkish on direction and patient on timing. All participants backed the hike, the first since 2023, and most judged another increase likely appropriate by year-end, but they stressed that decisions would depend on incoming data. Almost all saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, while risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced. Many noted that equity gains and narrow credit spreads leave financial conditions supportive of growth despite higher yields, one reason officials are not done, and a few pointed to stronger data, AI-related borrowing and geopolitics as drivers of the rise in long-term yields.

Markets barely reacted, with the S&P 500 and the 10-year yield little changed after the release, in line with what recent data and Fed commentary had already signaled. Strong growth (second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2%), sticky inflation (core PCE at 3.0%) and the slowest payroll gain of the year (29,000) make a mix that typically argues for holding, which is why October hold odds have risen to about 80% from about 55% a month ago. Remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who saw no need for urgency, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, who called for more data, reinforced the shift. The 10-year yield is up about 28 basis points since the September decision, which works like added tightening for borrowers. One major bank's economists argue that core PCE running near 2% annualized would count as slowing at sufficient speed, a bar Chair Warsh has not defined.

The bond selloff is the backdrop. A strong 10-year auction, at the highest yield for such a sale since November 2000, helped stabilize U.S. markets, but the 30-year still touched 5.73%, a peak not seen in more than two decades, and the 10-year trades near 5.34%. France remains the epicenter in Europe, with its 10-year near 4.90% against Bunds near 3.50% and contagion reaching Italy and Greece. ECB minutes, released today, showed no guidance on the next move, with risks to inflation up and to growth down.

Brent jumped above $104 on heightened Middle East tensions, and Hurricane Isaias, which has shut in more than a quarter of Gulf of Mexico oil output, is due to make landfall by the weekend. Gold steadied after its lowest since early August, with China's central bank extending its gold purchases to a 23rd straight month.

Looking Ahead
Today brings the 30-year Treasury bond auction, following Wednesday's strong 10-year sale, and weekly jobless claims. Friday's University of Michigan sentiment survey, with its inflation expectations, is the next read on how households are absorbing higher energy prices. The Fed meets October 27 to 28 with a December hike the market's base case, and the ECB meets October 29. Earnings season opens next week with the big banks, and Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall on the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. For Bitcoin, the first test is whether the floor holds, with ETF flows and yields setting the tone. A sustained break would bring the $80,500 to $81,500 zone into play.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.