Markets Today - July 9, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin holds above $62,000 as dovish Fed minutes offset Middle East tension

The crypto market is showing resilience through a turbulent macro backdrop, with Bitcoin holding above $62,000 and edging toward $63,000 as a surprisingly balanced set of Fed minutes helps offset the geopolitical strain from renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities. Equity futures are pointing higher, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.6% as chip stocks rebound, while Brent crude has eased back toward $77.50 after Wednesday's 8% surge. The dollar is steady just below its 13-month highs, gold has recovered to around $4,104, and the total crypto market cap is stabilising as bargain hunters step in following the mid-week pullback. The June Fed meeting minutes — the first under Warsh — struck a more divided and less hawkish tone than markets feared, providing the session's most important signal.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $62,800, recovering from the mid-week dip below $62,000 that followed President Trump's remarks on Iran. The token is now approximately 9% above June's monthly close, extending a recovery that has held up remarkably well given the geopolitical backdrop. The resilience is notable: crypto sold off on the initial escalation headlines but rallied from oversold territory rather than extending losses — a behavioural shift from the pattern that defined much of Q2, when every macro shock drove capital out of the sector.

Derivatives positioning reinforces the constructive-but-cautious read. Bitcoin futures open interest has declined to around $30 billion, according to Glassnode, as the price recovered — traders are reluctant to add leveraged exposure in a volatile macro environment, meaning the move higher is being driven by spot demand rather than leverage. The 30-day implied volatility index has snapped a two-day rise, pointing to expectations of calmer conditions ahead.

A structural signal is drawing attention: the supply of Bitcoin held on centralised exchanges has fallen to its lowest since 2017, at roughly 6.6% of circulating supply. Historically, sustained drawdowns in exchange balances have preceded multi-quarter bull phases, as fewer coins available for sale reduces selling pressure.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is trading around $1,750, little changed on the day, with XRP at $1.09, Solana modestly higher, and Cardano firmer. The altcoin complex has stabilised after Wednesday's sharp liquidation-driven selloff, with a selection of tokens outperforming — some names have surged around 35% since the start of the month, a reminder that risk appetite within the sector has not disappeared even amid the macro noise. Ethereum's exchange supply has fallen to its lowest since 2015, mirroring the Bitcoin dynamic and reinforcing the longer-term accumulation narrative for the two assets that together account for roughly two-thirds of total crypto market capitalization.

Macro & Institutional
The Fed's June meeting minutes were the session's defining release, and they cut through the market's most hawkish fears. Policymakers were sharply divided — a few made the case for raising rates immediately, but most pointed to scenarios in which inflation returns to the 2% target on its own, while flagging that strong AI-related demand, the Middle East conflict, or tariff effects could keep it elevated and warrant some policy firming. The takeaway is a genuinely data-dependent Fed with no predetermined path — a relief valve after the hawkish June dot plot. With forward guidance now abandoned under Warsh, each data point and each meeting carries more weight, and volatility around Fed events is likely to stay elevated.

On Iran, tensions persisted with a further round of U.S. strikes reported Thursday, but the market response was notably calmer than mid-week — Brent crude eased back toward $77.50 after Wednesday's 8% surge, and equities and crypto both steadied. The price action suggests markets are increasingly treating the conflict as a contained flare-up rather than a return to full-scale disruption, though the energy path remains the key swing factor for the inflation outlook the minutes flagged.

Looking Ahead
With the Fed minutes now digested, attention turns to how the energy shock evolves and whether the more balanced policy signal holds. Today brings initial jobless claims — an early read on labour market conditions as the second quarter's data picture fills in. Friday delivers German CPI, a useful gauge of whether European inflation is cooling in line with expectations, alongside the USDA's WASDE report on global agricultural supply and demand. Major US bank earnings begin next week, providing the first substantive test of how corporate America navigated the quarter. For Bitcoin, the combination of resilient ETF demand, falling exchange supply, and a less hawkish Fed provides a constructive backdrop — the $62,000 level is the near-term reference, and holding it through the current geopolitical uncertainty would strengthen the case that the sector has decoupled from the risk-off reflex that defined the first half of the year.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.