Markets Today - July 29, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin steadies near $64,000 as markets await an unusually uncertain Fed

Bitcoin is holding its ground on Wednesday, trading near $64,000 as investors wait out one of the most genuinely uncertain Federal Reserve decisions in years – one that arrives alongside earnings from the AI spenders whose stocks have driven global markets this week. Bitcoin is up around 1% on the day, having clawed back some of Tuesday's losses when an AI-led rout dragged it below $63,000, and its steadiness stands out against the backdrop: South Korea's Kospi triggered a second consecutive circuit breaker, oil rebounded more than 3% after a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange, and the dollar held near a one-month high. Gold edged up toward $4,039, silver firmed, and equity futures were near flat ahead of the decision. The picture is one of a market hedging rather than committing – and crypto, notably, is doing so from a position of relative calm.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, up about 1% and recovering part of the previous session's slide. What matters more is the relative performance – Bitcoin's losses this week have been considerably shallower than those in semiconductor and AI shares, even though the two have moved together for much of the year.

That is the theme worth drawing out. Bitcoin has spent 2026 trading as a high-sensitivity risk asset, yet in this particular episode of stress – one originating specifically in AI valuations – it has held up better than the stocks at the epicenter. It is too early to call it a decoupling; a more precise reading is that the AI-spending anxiety unsettling equities does not translate one-for-one into crypto, which has its own demand drivers and is not carrying the same valuation expectations. That distinction could matter increasingly as the AI trade faces scrutiny.

Positioning points to a market that is engaged but patient. Bitcoin futures open interest has held around $31 billion, comfortably above its late-June lows near $30 billion and not far off the July peak above $33 billion reached last week – evidence that traders have stayed invested through the week's turbulence rather than retreating to the sidelines. The flow picture tells a similar story of caution rather than exit: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $49 million of outflows on Tuesday, but the pace has slowed markedly from earlier in the week, suggesting investors are holding back for clarity from the Fed rather than actively reducing exposure. With longs and shorts close to evenly matched, the market looks coiled ahead of the decision,  and the reaction, when it lands, could be sharp.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether firmed to around $1,913, with XRP climbing to about $1.09, Cardano leading the majors higher, and Solana edging up – a broadly constructive session for altcoins even as the mood elsewhere stayed cautious. The moves were modest and rangebound, consistent with a market reluctant to take a strong view hours before the Fed.

Beneath the prices, Ether's structural story continues to build. A record 40.2 million ETH – roughly a third of total supply – was staked at the end of the second quarter, with the inflows increasingly coming from institutions, ETFs, and corporate treasuries rather than retail. That is a meaningful signal of conviction: capital committed to staking is capital removed from ready circulation, and its institutional origin points to allocators treating Ether as a long-term holding. That conviction extends to derivatives: Ether futures open interest has climbed to around $19 billion, up nearly a quarter on the month and holding near its highs through this week's selloff – traders staying engaged rather than retreating. The caveat, worth stating plainly, is that most of Ether's headline staking yield of around 2.8% comes from new token issuance rather than fees, so the reward is partly offset by dilution – a nuance that separates the genuine income story from the optics. Even so, the direction of travel, with network activity rising as usage costs fall, describes a chain being used more even as its token trades well below last year's levels.

Macro & Institutional
The Federal Reserve decision is the fulcrum of the day, and the uncertainty around it is real rather than rhetorical. Markets price roughly a two-in-three chance rates hold at 3.5% to 3.75% and close to a one-in-three chance of a hike – an unusually live probability for a decision only hours away, reflecting a committee caught between conflicting signals: inflation at 4.1% and a fresh oil spike argue for action, while softer June price data and a low-hiring, low-firing labor market argue for patience. The call may rest with Chair Warsh, in only his second meeting – holding could test the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, while hiking would cut against his framework of looking through supply-driven shocks. With Warsh disinclined to offer forward guidance, the tone of his press conference may move markets more than the decision itself.

The equity backdrop sharpens the stakes. A fourth straight decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reflects mounting doubt about whether the megacap AI buildout will convert into profits – crystallized overnight when SK Hynix posted record earnings that still disappointed and saw its shares fall as much as 20%. The question now falls to Microsoft and Meta, reporting after the close with combined capital-spending plans in the hundreds of billions; markets want evidence those investments are producing returns, not just costs. For crypto the read-through is indirect but real given how closely Bitcoin has tracked the sector – though this week's relative resilience hints the linkage may be loosening.

Looking Ahead
The Fed decision this afternoon overshadows everything, and with the outcome genuinely in doubt, the reaction across risk assets – crypto included – could be outsized in either direction; Warsh's tone on the path into September, where markets now price a strong chance of a hike, may matter more than today's call. After the close, Microsoft and Meta open the megacap AI earnings that will test whether the sector's vast spending is bearing fruit, with Apple and Amazon to follow later in the week – a run of results likely to set the tone for the AI trade that crypto has shadowed all year. Thursday brings the Bank of England's decision, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, arrives alongside Friday's payrolls report – both key inputs for the autumn rate path. Markets will also track the durability of the U.S.-Iran flare-up and oil. For Bitcoin, holding near $64,000 into the decision leaves it better positioned than the AI stocks it has moved with – and whether that relative strength survives the Fed will be the more telling test. 

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.