Markets Today - July 23, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin resilient as oil keeps climbing and equities stay mixed

Bitcoin holds around $65,400, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours, up modestly on the week. The total crypto market cap sits flat at $2.24 trillion. Alphabet's higher-than-expected capex guidance drove the volatility in equities. It hit the Nasdaq Wednesday on cash-flow concerns, then lifted Asian chip stocks overnight as the same spending got read there as a demand signal. IBM added its own drag, falling on a cut to full-year revenue guidance. Brent is this week's clearest mover, up to around $96 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates. Bitcoin has shrugged off both the equity swings and the oil-driven inflation scare.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades around $65,400, holding above its 50-day moving average after a weekly high near $66,800. That places it in the upper half of its July range of $62,800 to $66,800, despite a rough week for AI-capex earnings and oil. The BTC-to-Nasdaq-100 ratio recovered 13.3% in July to 2.28x, following a sharp derating of Bitcoin relative to tech stocks earlier this year. Yet Bitcoin's average daily correlation to the Nasdaq 100 actually rose this month, to 0.63 from 0.45. The current move reads as a bounce still tethered to tech, not a decoupling.

The support looks structural. ETFs logged inflows every session this week. Options positioning shows a mild bullish tilt. Skew stays positive across all tenors, and implied volatility sits calm around 36%, not the hedging-driven pattern typical of risk-off stress. Per Glassnode data, order book liquidity — measured by price slippage on a $100,000 BTC-USDT buy order on Binance — is the lowest it has been in two months. These are real signals, but with correlation to the Nasdaq intact, a fresh leg down in tech remains the bigger short-term risk. On the flip side, forward movement on the CLARITY Act could be the bullish catalyst the market is positioning for.

Ethereum & Altcoins
ETH trades above $1,900, holding its recent gains. Spot ETH ETFs added $72.6 million on July 22. That's a fourth straight day of inflows. For the first time this week, ETH's inflow topped Bitcoin's. Funding rates stay balanced across venues, with no signs of leverage building either way.

Two structural developments stand out. Grayscale plans to convert ETH and SOL staking rewards into quarterly cash dividends starting around August 7. That turns a passive holding into a yield-bearing product. It could draw in income-focused buyers who wouldn't touch a pure price bet. Separately, Hyperliquid's open interest hit a fresh 2026 high near $11.5 billion. Roughly a third of that came from tokenized real-world-asset markets hitting their own record suggesting  traders are looking for leveraged, on-chain exposure to traditional assets.

Macro & Institutional
Tech earnings this week undercut the AI-capex narrative equities have been leaning on. Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM results all showed that capex kept climbing, free cash flow kept shrinking, and IBM cut its full-year revenue growth forecast rather than raising it. Wall Street's initial read was skeptical, reflected in Wednesday's Nasdaq dip. Asian chip stocks, however, rallied on the same numbers overnight, treating the spending as a demand signal rather than a warning sign. Tech companies have no shortage of capital to invest in AI. Current stock valuations rely heavily on the assumption that those investments will generate returns, and they are at risk if that narrative is challenged.

The ECB adds a second pressure point today. It already moved first among major central banks, hiking rates last month on inflation risk from the Iran war. A hold is expected today, but markets increasingly favor a September move instead, as oil climbs again. What's actually giving the ECB room to wait is that long-term inflation expectations are still anchored, not spiraling with the oil shock. However, if the Hormuz-Red Sea disruption starts looking like a lasting supply problem rather than a temporary one, this anchor won't hold for long.

Looking Ahead
The ECB decision and press conference are today's main event, the real signal being how much September-hike language shows up. US jobless claims land the same day, forecast at 211,000 against last week's 208,000. The UK auctions a 37-year gilt. With yields already climbing globally on oil-driven inflation risk, weak demand at this auction would be a signal that the pressure building in shorter-dated markets is starting to reach the long end too. The US separately sells $21 billion in 10-year TIPS, a read on how much inflation compensation investors are demanding directly. None of this is likely to be what actually moves markets today. Between direct tanker strikes in Hormuz and a new Houthi front in the Red Sea, military developments are set to dominate over scheduled data, the way they have for most of this week.

Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.