Nexo

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin holds firm as oil and tariffs stack against risk appetite

Bitcoin holds around $65,000, with the total crypto market cap at $2.24 trillion, even as Middle East developments drive volatility across rates and oil. Brent has risen from roughly $70 in early July to $91, and the 10-year yield has climbed to 4.63%, up about 8 basis points on the week. Trump also added two new tariff fronts this week, a 50% duty on Canadian goods and a phased tariff on generic drugs starting in 2028, layering fresh cost pressure onto the oil shock. Notably, risk assets haven't cracked, and no deeper risk-off move has followed yet. That said, U.S. equity futures point lower ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings later today, a key test of the AI-investment boom's staying power.

Bitcoin
Despite the ongoing rate volatility, BTC traded in a $62,800–$66,800 range this week, with U.S. spot ETF inflows providing support rather than a cap. ETFs have added roughly $779 million across the six sessions since the $424.7 million outflow on July 13, with $203.1 million added Monday and $226.9 million Tuesday. Immediate resistance sits at the weekly high near $66,800. A break above targets the psychological $68,000-$70,000 zone. Initial support is the $62,800 weekly low, a break below exposes the mid-$60,000s.

Beneath the ETF-driven bid, positioning stays measured rather than stretched. Open interest is flat on the week (+0.03%, ~474,000 BTC), and funding rates across major venues held in a tight, modestly positive band, with no sign of a leverage squeeze building either way. Spot cumulative volume delta remains negative, but the net-selling tilt has neither deepened nor reversed over the past week. Buy- and sell-side volume both spiked overnight into this morning, alongside the latest leg of oil-driven volatility, but it's too early in the session to call that a trend rather than a single active window. Contained funding, steady ETF demand, and stable spot flow point to a market absorbing macro noise, not showing stress.

Ethereum & Altcoins
ETH trades near $1,920 and has quietly outperformed Bitcoin over the past month. The BTC-to-ETH ratio is down about 7% since June 22. Real buyers are behind it. ETF demand has turned steadily positive. Bitmine, the Tom Lee-chaired treasury company, keeps adding to its ETH holdings and running a buyback.

Two catalysts are behind the buying. One is optimism that the CLARITY Act will pass and bring regulatory clarity to crypto. The other is a narrative bet. It holds that Ethereum becomes the trust layer for an economy where AI agents earn and spend on their own. Standard Chartered has separately floated a broader institutional rotation into Ethereum, based on rising institutional demand and Ethereum's dominant role in stablecoin settlement, DeFi, and real-world asset tokenization.

Macro & Institutional
Middle East tensions hold Brent above $90. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell 66% week-on-week. This is supply-driven, not demand-driven, inflation without growth. Tariffs add to the same problem, even though markets aren't pricing them that way. The 50% duty on Canadian goods and the phased generic-drug tariff, effective 2028, are treated as negotiating tactics, not earnings risk, but both are supply-side cost additions, structurally identical to the oil shock.

Equity momentum rests on two assumptions holding at once. The Fed can look through the tariff and oil stack as transitory. And AI capex keeps justifying current valuations, with Alphabet and Tesla reporting tonight as the next test. The first assumption holds only as long as labor stays soft rather than cracking, which is currently the case. Bond markets aren't making the same bet. The 10-year yield's climb to 4.63% is pricing the inflation risk more directly than equities are. That gap is the risk. If either assumption breaks, a weak print tonight or elsewhere in the AI-capex story, or the Fed losing room on labor, the repricing hits equities through the same channel yields are already moving on.

Looking Ahead
U.S. President Trump speaks tonight. Both tariffs and the Iran conflict remain unresolved, so a fresh comment on either could move markets. Thursday's ECB decision is expected to hold, but hawkish hints of a rate hike later in the year are possible given Iran-driven oil pressure. U.S. jobless claims follow the same day, and the trend so far argues for a steady read rather than a surprise. Friday is the real test for markets. Flash July PMIs land across Japan, the eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., the first survey data broad enough to show whether this month's oil shock and new tariffs have reached actual business activity, not just prices and sentiment.

Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.