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Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin slips toward $63,000 as an AI-driven tech selloff and hawkish Fed talk sour appetite

The crypto market is closing the week on the back foot, with Bitcoin slipping below $63,000 as a sharp reassessment of AI valuations sends technology stocks sharply lower and drags risk assets down with them. The world's largest crypto is down roughly 2.8% on the day and now modestly lower over the past seven days, having twice failed to break $65,000 this week. The selloff originated in the chip sector rather than anything crypto-specific: Asian semiconductor stocks tumbled, with Japan's Nikkei down around 5% in its worst session since March, while U.S. futures pointed sharply lower after disappointing guidance from a streaming heavyweight and a reported delay to a flagship AI model deepened doubts about the trade. Compounding the caution, several Fed officials struck a hawkish tone this week, and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude up more than 10% on the week.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, having slipped below its 50-day moving average as the week's brief recovery lost steam. The retreat is best understood as a risk-off move imported from equities rather than a breakdown in crypto's own fundamentals — the catalyst was a pronounced selloff in AI and semiconductor shares that turned the tape negative across every major asset class. That Bitcoin failed twice at $65,000 before this pullback underscores how firmly the level has hardened into near-term resistance, leaving the recovery narrative on hold rather than invalidated. The macro backdrop did not help: while Tuesday's cooler inflation data had eased fears of imminent rate hikes, several Fed officials subsequently flagged sticky inflation and the risk of higher energy costs, swinging the rate narrative back toward caution.

Beneath the price action, though, the positioning data is quietly constructive. Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed through July — from around $30 billion at the start of the month to a peak above $32 billion by mid-month, well above the late-June trough near $29.5 billion — and, tellingly, held most of those gains even as price slipped this week. Rising open interest through a pullback points to traders re-engaging and rebuilding positions rather than capitulating, a healthier signal than the deleveraging that defined June. The institutional flow picture echoes that: spot Bitcoin ETFs are set for only mild outflows of around $56.6 million this week, a marked improvement on the eight-week bleed that preceded last week's $197.4 million inflow.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether underperformed Bitcoin on the day, easing to around $1,840, though it remains the only major token still higher over the past seven sessions — a relative resilience worth noting against the broad pullback. XRP eased to around $1.09, Solana slipped to around $75, BNB traded near $571, and Hyperliquid's HYPE was the weakest major at around $60. The selling was broad but externally driven, originating in the Asian chip tape rather than anything token-specific.

Ether's move is the one to watch. Spot Ether ETFs drew nearly $97 million over the first three days of this week — more than all of last week, yet that bid did not stop Ether from falling harder than Bitcoin when the chip selloff hit. The divergence is instructive: a steady institutional bid is building beneath Ether, but it is not yet deep enough to insulate the asset from broad risk-off moves, and on-chain metrics have yet to confirm a durable reversal.

Macro & Institutional
The defining force this week was a decisive shift in sentiment around the AI trade. Technology shares led markets lower this week as concerns over stretched AI valuations resurfaced. A leading chipmaker fell despite strong earnings, weighed down by a sharply higher capital-spending outlook, while soft guidance from a major streaming company and a reported delay to a flagship AI model added to the pressure. For crypto, the read-through cuts both ways: the AI trade has been the principal competitor for speculative capital this year, so a sustained wobble pressures risk sentiment now but could eventually redirect flows toward digital assets. Compounding the caution, several Fed officials leaned hawkish despite the soft inflation data, warning that energy-driven pressures could keep inflation sticky — a tension left unresolved by the week's oil surge. Eurozone inflation offered a more benign counterpoint, slowing to 2.8% in June from 3.2%.

On the regulatory front, optimism is building in Washington around landmark crypto legislation, described by one lawmaker as a top presidential priority with genuine bipartisan backing. The path is not yet clear — Senate leadership is pushing for a floor vote before the August recess, but unresolved ethics provisions remain a sticking point, and a return trip to the House could push passage into the autumn. A comprehensive federal framework would still mark the sector's most significant structural development in years. Meanwhile, the geopolitical backdrop kept oil elevated, with Brent up more than 10% on the week toward $85 as Strait of Hormuz shipping thinned — leaving the durability of the energy impulse as the key swing factor for the Fed's room to maneuver.

Looking Ahead
The week ahead is defined by a heavy slate of megacap technology earnings — Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta all report — which will serve as the definitive test of whether the AI trade's wobble deepens or steadies on resilient fundamentals. Given how tightly crypto has tracked risk sentiment this week, those results are likely to set the tone for Bitcoin's next move. On the data front, Tuesday brings the UK unemployment rate and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment, Wednesday delivers UK CPI, and Thursday is the week's macro highlight with the ECB interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, alongside U.S. jobless claims. Today rounds out this week's earnings with Travelers, Truist, Fifth Third, and Regions Financial. Beyond the calendar, markets will watch the trajectory of oil and any diplomatic progress in the Middle East, where regional mediators are reportedly still pursuing talks, alongside the timeline for crypto legislation in Washington. For Bitcoin, the immediate reference remains the $65,000 level that has capped two attempts higher; reclaiming it would require a steadier risk backdrop than this week delivered, while the recent range lows offer support should the tech selloff extend.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.