Markets Today - August 6, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin steadies above $64,000 as ETF flows turn decisively positive ahead of Friday's jobs report

Markets are trading a genuinely mixed set of signals on Thursday. Equities have pushed to fresh records this week even as renewed doubts about AI infrastructure spending pressured chip and hardware names overnight; gold sits near a seven-week high on easing rate-hike bets; and oil remains sharply lower on hopes that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could soon resume. Bitcoin, against that backdrop, is holding near $64,700 — a level it has defended through a week in which equities marched higher while crypto largely sat still. That stillness is becoming the more interesting story than the price itself: institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned firmly positive after a rough second quarter, on-chain data increasingly points to accumulation by long-term holders even as price remains under pressure, and Friday's U.S. jobs report looms as the clearest catalyst the market has had in weeks. Ether has edged higher to around $1,910, and the total crypto market cap is little changed as the sector waits for a genuine directional signal.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $64,700, up modestly on the day and essentially unchanged over a week in which the S&P 500 closed at fresh records. That gap between a roaring equity tape and a flat Bitcoin price has drawn attention from several research desks this week, with the general read being that the market has compressed into stillness rather than braced for a decline.

The clearest shift has come in institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in more than half a billion dollars so far in August, with inflows building through the week and Wednesday alone contributing over $240 million — a sharp reversal from June, when the funds recorded their worst month on record. That the reversal has not yet lifted price meaningfully is itself informative: some desks argue the marginal buyer looks more tactical than convicted, and that a genuine recovery narrative likely needs a decisive close above $65,000 to take hold.As per Glassnode data and Nexo's own calculations, spot selling pressure has eased steadily on a quarterly basis. Net-sell share fell from -0.98% of total spot volume in Q1 to -0.60% in Q2 to -0.31% quarter-to-date in Q3. But the shift isn't strong enough to force a new leg down, and with daily spot volume down 43% and open interest pinned in a tight 461,000–500,000 BTC band, neither buyers nor sellers currently have the conviction or size to break the range in either direction.

On-chain signals point in a similar direction. A large cost-basis cluster has formed between $62,000 and $65,000 — now the biggest such cluster on record — while more than half of circulating supply sits at or near breakeven, a condition that has historically coincided with cycle lows rather than fresh breakdowns. Large holders across Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP have also continued adding to positions even as prices sit under pressure, a pattern researchers describe as consistent with the final stage of a bear market, though not yet proof a bottom is confirmed. A brief security scare involving a hardware wallet brand added a wrinkle this week but resolved with little lasting impact, with stolen coins moving into fresh cold storage rather than onto exchanges.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether is trading near $1,910, modestly higher and among the better performers this week, while XRP has eased to around $1.05, Solana is little changed, Cardano has softened, and BNB is marginally lower. Ether's ETF flows echoed Bitcoin's improving trend, taking in fresh money in the tens of millions in recent sessions.

The accumulation pattern looks similar to Bitcoin's, with larger wallets adding aggressively while smaller holders sell into them — genuine evidence of strong hands absorbing supply. The wrinkle is valuation: Ether remains one of the few major assets trading below its realized price, a signal some researchers read as leaving room for further downside before a durable floor is set. XRP's positioning looks patient in its own right, with order flow staying large even as volume metrics turn neutral — quiet absorption rather than capitulation or a confirmed breakout.

Macro & Institutional
The macro backdrop has turned modestly more supportive, driven largely by geopolitics. Iran and Oman have agreed on coordinates for a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, pulling oil sharply lower this week even though the arrangement falls short of a full reopening, with cargo fees and security terms still unresolved. Markets have treated the news as constructive on balance, helping push the probability of a September rate hike down to around 55%, from closer to two-thirds earlier in the week.

That improving rate outlook now hinges on labor data. A private payrolls report this week showed hiring cooling further in July, leaving Friday's nonfarm payrolls release as the genuine swing factor. Economists broadly expect a modest jobs gain with unemployment steady, and a print in that range or softer would likely reinforce the case for the Fed to stay patient.

Equity markets showed the AI trade is not without its own fragilities this week. Disappointing results and spending commentary from a prominent rocket and satellite company, alongside a chipmaker's shift in processor sourcing, triggered a sharp "sell the news" reaction across several of the year's strongest AI-adjacent performers, spreading into Asian memory chip and hardware names — a reminder that dispersion beneath the index remains wide even as headlines climb.

Looking Ahead
Friday's jobs report is the week's defining event — nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings together will offer the clearest read yet on whether the labor market is cooling enough to keep the Fed on hold. A soft set of readings would likely accelerate the recent easing in hike odds and could provide the cleaner catalyst that Bitcoin's ETF flows have so far failed to translate into price; firmer numbers would push the other way. Beyond the data, markets will watch whether the Hormuz shipping arrangement advances into a fuller agreement. Today's earnings calendar brings results from ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, and Warner Bros Discovery. For Bitcoin, the test remains the one flagged by several desks this week: whether the improving institutional bid can finally translate into a decisive move through $65,000 — the level that would begin to validate the recovery case the flow data is quietly building toward.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.