Nexo

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin edges lower as macro and crypto headwinds offset geopolitical relief

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Monday morning, despite renewed geopolitical relief that sent oil prices sharply lower over the weekend, normally a tailwind crypto would catch. The broader macro backdrop stayed mixed instead. The U.S. dollar index holds firm near 99.82 despite the first confirmed U.S.-Japan currency intervention in 15 years, and September Fed hike odds firmed to 64.7%. Compounding the pressure, a firmware flaw in the hardware wallet Coldcard has drained roughly $89 million from self-custodied addresses since July 30, driving a rotation toward custodial safety rather than outright selling. Friday's payrolls remain the week's bigger swing factor, with the power to shift the Fed's trajectory. But whether that shift actually reaches long-end yields and the dollar may depend just as much on whether the Hormuz de-escalation holds.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades around $62,400, down 1.2% over 24 hours, extending a decline from Sunday's $63,520 despite an improved geopolitical backdrop. The primary bearish driver remains the macro environment. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields have climbed to around 5.27%, a 19-year high, and the dollar stays firm, supported by high odds for a September Fed hike.

Compounding the cautious mood is the Coldcard exploit. It exposed an operational risk in self-custody that not every retail holder is equipped to manage. That drove a rotation toward centralized platforms. Exchange balances rose to roughly 3.31 million BTC on July 31, the highest level since April 2025. Unique addresses depositing to exchanges jumped to roughly 97,800 that day, about 50% above the recent average and the fourth-highest reading of 2026. Spot selling ticked up too, but only mildly relative to the inflow: net spot selling that day was just 1,530 BTC, about a third of the roughly 4,600 BTC that flowed onto exchanges, suggesting no broad-based sell-off.

On-chain timing supports the custody-driven read behind the Coldcard-linked leg of the move, rather than intent to sell. Spot selling peaked between 13:00 and 14:00 UTC on July 31, with sending and depositing address activity peaking an hour later.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum and major altcoins fell 1-2% in tandem with Bitcoin over the past 24 hours, a contained move that didn't trigger a leverage flush. Funding rates held broadly neutral through the week. A handful of venues dipped negative across ETH, XRP, and SOL alike during the hours the Coldcard story broke on Friday, and that pulled ETH's blended rate briefly into negative territory before it recovered. ETH open interest, however, held near its recent range, consistent with traders adding rather than unwinding positions through the dip. ETH ETFs took in $9.03 million net Friday, a smaller but positive counterpart to Bitcoin's outflow that day. The ETH/BTC ratio has held a tight range through early August after climbing steadily since bottoming in June, with ETH outperforming BTC over that stretch even as the two moved together this week. August seasonality remains a risk factor for the complex.

Macro & Institutional
U.S. equity futures point to a firmer open, with Nasdaq 100 and European futures both up 0.8%, extending Friday's gains on an Amazon earnings surge and a fourth straight winning month for the Dow. Treasuries diverge by tenor. The U.S. 10-year yield eased 4 basis points to 4.69% as falling oil calmed inflation expectations, while the 30-year holds near 5.27%, keeping long-end pressure intact.

The dollar holds firm near 99.82 despite the first joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention in 15 years, which has lifted the yen from a 40-year low of 163.73 to around 157.70 per dollar.

Oil is the session's biggest mover. Brent fell as much as 7.3% intraday to $81.55 and WTI dropped 6.5% to $79.16, after U.S. President Trump called off a planned Iran strike and reopened talks, with Saudi Arabia pushing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Gold added a muted 0.3% to around $4,060.

Looking Ahead
This week's U.S. jobs data is the key swing factor for BTC direction. JOLTS job openings post Tuesday, forecast at 7.42 million versus 7.594 million prior. ADP private payrolls follow Wednesday, forecast at 71,000 versus 98,000 prior. The week closes with Friday's nonfarm payrolls, forecast at 88,000 versus 57,000 prior, alongside a forecast unemployment rate holding at 4.2% and average hourly earnings forecast at 0.3% month-over-month. A soft print across these releases would support the case for the Fed holding off a September hike; a strong beat would reinforce the hawkish pricing already building in rate markets.

Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.