Markets Today - August 13, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin tested as a softer PPI reading breaks the week's inflation stalemate

Bitcoin ticks up slightly toward $64,000, trading near $63,700 on Thursday, with markets now digesting a second inflation surprise this week — and unlike Wednesday's in-line CPI, today's producer price report came in softer than expected on every measure. Headline PPI was flat on the month against forecasts for a 0.2% gain, and the annual rate cooled to 4.7% from 5.5%, below the 4.9% consensus. A modestly higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims reading added a steadying note alongside the inflation data, pointing to a labor market that remains stable rather than weakening sharply. The total crypto market cap sits around $2.18 trillion. Equities firmed modestly on the news, with major U.S. index futures advancing as investors read the softer PPI as further room for the Fed to hold. Where Wednesday's confirmatory CPI print failed to move markets, today's genuine downside surprise on PPI is a different kind of test — precisely the sort of data shock that has historically produced an outsized reaction in Bitcoin. Gold has eased to around $4,383 an ounce after Wednesday's spike, and Brent crude has pulled back to around $87 following its own six-day run of gains.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades near $63,700, ticking modestly higher and still confined to the range that has held for weeks, but today's data gives that range its first genuine test since the current stretch began. Wednesday's in-line CPI illustrated a clear pattern: a print that lands where everyone already expected rarely moves a market that has priced it in ahead of time, since it takes a genuine departure from consensus to force positioning to shift. There is a pattern worth flagging here. Looking back across the last nine CPI prints, the three that came in below forecast produced an outsized bitcoin response — gains averaging above 3%, and the most recent instance, in mid-July, pushed the price up more than 4% in a single move. Today's PPI miss is exactly that kind of surprise, just from a different inflation gauge, and it arrives with direct relevance to the Fed's actual preferred measure.

The mechanism matters here: PPI components feed directly into core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, so a softer-than-expected reading strengthens the case for continued patience on rates more concretely than yesterday's CPI did on its own. Whether that translates into the kind of Bitcoin move typically associated with a genuine surprise will be the more interesting story to watch through the rest of the session. Beyond today, attention remains on the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium later this month and the early-September jobs and inflation releases, but today's data has already added real weight to the disinflation case ahead of that gathering.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether holds little changed near $1,880, essentially flat as the broader altcoin complex struggles for direction. Hyperliquid's HYPE was the session's standout, adding more than 3%, while Tron edged higher and remains up modestly on the week. Everything else softened: XRP slipped below $1.01 and stands down nearly 5% over the past seven days, the weakest performer among the majors, while Solana and BNB both eased modestly.

XRP's derivatives positioning is worth watching closely following today's data. Futures open interest has remained elevated for several consecutive sessions, and recent volume patterns have leaned toward bearish market orders — a combination that points to building pressure below the psychologically important $1 level. One notable offset: perpetual funding rates have stayed modestly positive, suggesting that even as short-term positioning skews cautious, longer-term sentiment in the derivatives market has not fully capitulated to a bearish view.

Macro & Institutional
Today's producer price report delivered what Wednesday's CPI did not: a reading below forecast, even if the gap was modest. Headline PPI was flat on the month against expectations for a 0.2% increase, and the annual rate cooled to 4.7% from 5.5%, below the 4.9% consensus. Because PPI components flow directly into the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge, today's miss carries real weight ahead of the September meeting — a softer reading here does more to strengthen the case for continued patience on rates than an in-line CPI print ever could, since it suggests underlying price pressures are decelerating a touch faster than official forecasts had assumed.

The labor market offered a complementary, if more modest, signal. Weekly jobless claims rose to 209,000, slightly above the 202,000 expected, though the figure remains within this year's established range and is broadly consistent with a labor market that is stable rather than deteriorating sharply, even after last week's surprise contraction in July payrolls. This week has now delivered three separate data points — payrolls, CPI, and PPI — all pointing in the same direction. A single soft print can be dismissed as noise; three in a row starts to look like a trend the Fed can't easily talk past. With PPI now joining a soft payrolls report and an in-line CPI, the argument for a September hike may not so much be defeated as simply run out of new evidence to stand on.

The geopolitical backdrop remains a persistent, if familiar, source of tension. The U.S. and Iran continued trading competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with talks over reopening the waterway still stalled and shipping activity through the channel severely curtailed. Brent crude, near $87 a barrel, has nonetheless eased from its recent highs above $90, with both OPEC and the International Energy Agency trimming their 2026 demand forecasts this week — a reminder that concerns about slowing global growth are now working alongside, and at times against, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. Gold, at around $4,383, has given back some of Wednesday's gains, though today's PPI reading could reintroduce some of the safe-haven demand that faded after the in-line CPI print.

Equity markets, meanwhile, are drawing strength from an unusually resilient earnings season and a sharp rebound in AI-adjacent names. South Korea's Kospi has now recovered roughly 20% from its late-July trough, putting the benchmark on track to exit bear-market territory entirely, powered by a recovery in its largest semiconductor names. Foreign investors sold meaningfully less Korean equity in July than in the prior two months, a stabilization that suggests some of the panic selling triggered by AI-valuation concerns has already run its course.

Looking Ahead
With today's PPI delivering the genuine surprise that Wednesday's CPI didn't, the immediate question is whether risk assets — Bitcoin included — respond with the kind of decisive move that has historically followed downside inflation shocks, or whether the broader range holds even through a real data surprise. Weekly jobless claims added a steadying note alongside the inflation data, coming in only modestly above forecast and reinforcing the view that the labor market remains stable despite last week's payrolls shock. Beyond today, markets are increasingly looking toward the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium later this month and the early-September jobs and inflation data as the next major tests of the disinflation narrative that today's numbers have reinforced. For Bitcoin, this is the moment the past two days have been building toward: a genuine surprise has arrived alongside a labor market that continues to look merely stable rather than either weak or overheating, and how the market responds to that combination will say more about the durability of the current range than any confirmatory data point could.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.