Markets Today - August 12, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin holds flat as the much-anticipated CPI print buys the Fed time, but not conviction

The much-anticipated July U.S. inflation report landed exactly in line with forecast on Wednesday — headline CPI at 3.4% year-on-year and core at 2.5%, both a touch softer than June and precisely matching consensus. Equities took the news as a modest relief rally, with major U.S. index futures firming as the print offered just enough cover for the Fed to keep holding rates rather than lean hawkish. Bitcoin's reaction was far more muted: it sat near $64,100 into the release and stayed largely unchanged after it, giving crypto little reason to abandon the $62,000–$66,000 band it has held for weeks. Oil climbs toward $90 a barrel on Middle East shipping disruption, gold holds near a two-month high above $4,400, and the total crypto market cap is little changed as the sector absorbs a number that confirmed the trend without accelerating it.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin sits near $64,100, essentially flat both before and after the CPI release — a telling contrast with equities, which found enough in the in-line print to extend their gains. The divergence underscores something worth noting: a number "just good enough" to keep the Fed on hold is a genuine, if modest, win for risk assets broadly, yet crypto's own catalysts currently sit elsewhere. The read-through on rates is nuanced rather than clean — the print confirms disinflation remains intact following last week's soft payrolls shock, but gently rather than decisively, leaving September's decision a genuine coin toss rather than a settled call.

That caution shows up in the flow data too. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added just $5 million on Tuesday, a token inflow that signals hesitancy rather than conviction as investors waited out today's release. Options flow on major derivatives venues tells a different story, though — concentrated in bullish September calls at the $70,000 strike, a bet that still has weeks to play out and was never contingent on today's number alone. On-chain data continues to lean constructive as well: major coins move off exchanges rather than onto them, a pattern more consistent with accumulation than distribution, even as some sophisticated derivatives traders remain net short. Taken together, the picture is one of a market cautious in aggregate but not without pockets of genuine conviction — and with today's print removing one source of near-term uncertainty without adding a new catalyst, the range that has held for weeks looks set to persist a little longer.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether trades near $1,910, with XRP holding just above $1.02, Solana firmer, and Cardano among the session's softer performers. XRP remains the name to watch most closely: futures open interest has built to its highest level since October even as price continues to hover just above the psychologically important $1 level, a combination of elevated leverage and technical proximity that leaves the token more exposed than most majors to any follow-through volatility, however muted today's initial reaction has been.

Macro & Institutional
Wednesday’s inflation report confirmed rather than resolved the debate that has dominated markets since last week's payrolls shock. Headline CPI cooled to 3.4% from 3.5%, and core eased to 2.5% from 2.6% — both landing exactly as forecast. Equities read the outcome as sufficient for the Fed to maintain its wait-and-see posture, and one closely watched U.S. economist framed it well: today's data was just good enough to keep the committee holding rather than hiking, but it is next month's inflation reading — and the trajectory of the Middle East conflict — that will matter more for the actual September decision. That framing captures the moment precisely: today's print bought time rather than clarity.

Energy markets remain the more live source of inflation risk from here. Brent crude climbs toward $90 a barrel as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in a week, with fresh attacks reported on vessels in the region keeping a risk premium in place even as diplomatic contacts continue intermittently. Because today's CPI print does not yet capture the most recent leg of that move, a sustained rise in oil could show up more forcefully in next month's data — making the energy channel arguably the more important swing factor for the Fed's path from here.

Equity markets, meanwhile, continue to draw support from an unusually strong earnings season. A major AI-focused cloud infrastructure provider posted record revenue for a fifth consecutive quarter and more than doubled its sales backlog, underscoring that demand for AI computing capacity remains robust even as capital expenditures run ahead of expectations — a dynamic that continues to test investor patience around the AI investment cycle without yet breaking confidence in it.

Looking Ahead
With the CPI print landing exactly in line with forecast and equities treating it as sufficient rather than exciting, attention turns quickly to Thursday's producer price data for a second, more forward-looking read on the same inflation trajectory. Eurozone growth figures also land Thursday. The more consequential signals for September's Fed decision, though, may not arrive until next month's inflation data and however the Middle East situation evolves in the meantime. For Bitcoin, an in-line CPI print that barely moved the needle leaves the $62,000–$66,000 range fully intact — the market got the number it expected, and for now, that has been enough to keep it exactly where it was.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.