Bitcoin’s macro catalyst returns

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• Altcoins round-up
• Apple’s stock record
• Bitcoin’s starting recovery?

Market cast

BTC: Bullish momentum builds

Bitcoin's weekly chart is showing bullish momentum developing. Price has moved back above the 200-period SMA, a key long-term trend indicator. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, sits in neutral territory, while the Stochastic, another momentum oscillator, has crossed above the 20-level threshold – a move that could signal a trend reversal. The MACD, a trend and momentum indicator, has its signal lines edging close to a bullish crossover, adding to the constructive tone.

The daily chart tells a similarly bullish story. Price has crossed above the 50-period SMA and is now heading toward the upper Bollinger Band – a volatility indicator. RSI remains neutral, and while the Stochastic lines sit in overbought territory, they show no signs of fading momentum. The MACD histogram, meanwhile, sits comfortably in positive territory – all pointing to bullish momentum across both timeframes.

Key levels to watch: On the downside, immediate support sits around $62,000, with the next significant zone near $58,000–$59,000; the daily middle Bollinger Band could also serve as dynamic support. To the upside, the first resistance comes in around $65,000, followed by $67,000.

The big idea

Bitcoin's CPI moment: Macro comes back into focus

Time and again this year, Bitcoin has gone looking for a catalyst, only to run headlong into geopolitics instead. Every attempt at a clean, rates-driven story got knocked off course by fresh friction out of the Middle East. Tuesday’s US CPI report gave Bitcoin a real one — and a friendly one at that.

June's headline inflation cooled sharply to 3.5% annually, well below the 3.8% consensus and down from 4.2% in May, with prices actually falling 0.4% on the month — the largest one-month drop since April 2020, and well past the mild 0.1% decline economists had expected. Core CPI told the same story: flat month-over-month against expectations for a rise, pulling the annual core rate down to 2.6% from 2.9% — a much bigger step toward the Fed's target than anyone had priced in.

That's not the "calm, in-line" outcome the market had been bracing for — it's a genuine downside surprise, and Bitcoin treated it as one. BTC quickly reacted by reaching toward $64,000 right after the release, climbing roughly 1% from around $62,800.

The bigger story is what it did to rate expectations. Markets are now pricing an 83% chance the Fed holds rates steady at the July 28–29 meeting, versus just 17% odds of a hike — a sharp reversal from the mood following Governor Waller's hawkish comments last week, when a hike looked like a live possibility. With a rate hike now largely off the table, one of the biggest overhangs on Bitcoin this year has meaningfully eased.

There's backup from other corners of the analyst community too. Standard Chartered reiterated its $100,000 year-end Bitcoin target this week, calling current levels near $64,000 "a screaming buy." Bitwise strikes a similar note, arguing the industry is twice the size it was at the last cycle's bottom despite bear-market prices, and flagging July's historically strong seasonality — Bitcoin has averaged a 10.7% gain in the month — as another reason for optimism. CryptoQuant adds to that seasonality case: in past bear-market years like 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly 17-20% in July alone, with the firm noting early signs that demand is already re-igniting off the recent lows. The on-chain picture backs up that optimism as Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva notes that spot selling pressure has faded. More on that in this week’s data story below.

If the last two issues were about regulatory clarity, this week looks like it's shaping up to be about macroeconomic clarity instead. Tuesday’s numbers make that label easier to defend: a clean downside surprise on both headline and core inflation, paired with rate-hike odds falling to just 17%, removes a real source of uncertainty rather than simply confirming expectations. That said, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone in his first Congressional testimony the same day, insisting the Fed has "no tolerance" for persistently high inflation and pushing back on any expectation of a policy pivot. One cool print hasn't changed the Fed's messaging, even if it's changed the market's odds. It's still one data point, and Bitcoin will likely keep reacting to whatever comes out of the Gulf too — but rates just handed the market a genuinely bullish tailwind to work with.

Bottom line: June inflation came in well below expectations on every measure, and the Fed now looks unlikely to hike this month — a clear, dovish surprise that gives Bitcoin's macro-driven recovery case its best data point yet, with BTC quickly reacting toward $64,000 right after the release.

Blue chips

Ethereum outperforms as its next chapter comes into focus

ETH was one of the better performers recently, up over to roughly $1,770 at the start of the week, as Bitcoin held firm above $63,000. That put it ahead of most majors, and it came despite wobbly AI stocks and a stronger dollar – two things that usually drag crypto down with them. Ethereum didn't just hold up; it led the pack.

The timing is fitting. Vitalik Buterin just dropped his vision for "Lean Ethereum", a multi-year rebuild he's calling the network's third major era – right up there with the Merge. The headline: a data storage redesign that could slash fees for everyday tokens and apps by 10x or more, no rewrites required. Quantum resistance and privacy are also getting fast-tracked as core priorities, not afterthoughts. Put together, it's a good reminder that Ethereum's momentum isn't only about price – there's real groundwork being laid for the next decade.

TradFi trends

Apple reaches ATH on AI memory

While Bitcoin watches the Fed, Apple is riding a different macro story — and it's paying off. Shares hit an all-time high on July 13, closing at $317.31 (a $4.7 trillion market cap), as an AI-driven memory chip shortage splits the smartphone market in two.

The cause: memory chips now cost nearly triple last year's price, as hyperscalers buy up supply for AI training. That's gutted margins for budget phone makers while barely touching Apple, which locked in supply early. Global smartphone shipments fell 6.7% last quarter, but Apple's grew 15.3% — best in years, alongside Samsung as the only other top-five vendor to grow. Institutions had already positioned for it, adding roughly 1.24 billion shares ahead of the rebound. The open question: with the memory crunch expected to run into 2028, whether buyers keep absorbing Apple's rising costs — a test the July 30 earnings print should help answer.

The week's most interesting data story

Bitcoin’s clearest signs of recovery?

This week's chart adds a useful data point to the macro story: the market may be working through its last bit of overhand supply. A key on-chain metric — the share of realized value coming from longer-term holders adjusting their positions, recently reached its highest level since December 2022. In practice, this reflects holders who've been through months of drawdown finally deciding to move on, a pattern that has historically shown up in the later stages of a market finding its footing rather than at the start of a fresh leg down.

That matters because this kind of activity tends to be one of the last steps in a market working through excess supply. Once that cohort finishes repositioning, there's less overhead pressure weighing on price, which can set the stage for a steadier recovery. 

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$200,000 — A solo miner's payout from hitting a Bitcoin block with a hobbyist-grade Bitaxe, running just ~1 terahash per second for eight hours.

$50.85 billion — Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since launch, a milestone that's held even through a choppy July.

$10.5 billion — Bitmine Immersion's ether treasury value, now the largest corporate ether stash and second only to Strategy's bitcoin position globally.

$3 billion — Strategy's USD reserve balance after a $450 million boost last week — funded via share sales, with its 843,775 BTC treasury untouched.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

FOMO time for XRP?

There is no stopping the long-term HODLER.

The power of Bitcoin as collateral.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].