Dispatch #291: Bitcoin holds the line, again

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• Bitcoin’s balance play
• Tokenization picks up speed
• ETFs change direction

Market cast

BTC: Stability found, in search of a catalyst

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $70,000 this week, yet continued to trade within the same range it has held for over a month — a sign of stability amid ongoing macro uncertainty. That rangebound character is reflected clearly across timeframes.

On the weekly chart, the RSI and Stochastic, both momentum oscillators, are approaching oversold territory, while the MACD histogram — a trend-following momentum indicator, hovers near the zero line, confirming a lack of directional momentum. The daily picture is no different, with price oscillating around the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, caught between support in the $66,000–$65,500 zone and immediate resistance at $70,000–$71,000. The RSI and Stochastic remain neutral, the MACD marginally above zero, and a low ADX reading — a trend strength indicator, seals the case for a sideways, low-conviction market.

Should selling pressure intensify, a deeper floor exists in the $63,000–$62,500 range. To the upside, a convincing break above $70,000–$71,000 would bring the $73,000–$74,000 zone into focus. Until either boundary gives way, traders should expect continued consolidation and exercise caution with directional bets.

The big idea

Bitcoin: the asset that doesn't blink

Global headlines, inflation uncertainty, and the most bearish sentiment in months. And yet Bitcoin has absorbed all of it without breaking. The story this week is not about where Bitcoin is going. It is about what it is already proving.

Bitcoin was trading around $69,000 on Monday, lifted by early optimism around a potential 45-day Iran ceasefire. The move reclaims the top of its five-week war range — the $65,000 to $73,000 channel that has held through every headline since the conflict began. Whether a deal materialises or not, the more important question is what has kept Bitcoin inside that range rather than below it.

The crosswinds — real, but not breaking anything: The macro backdrop heading into this week is genuinely complex. The March jobs report landed on Good Friday with NYSE, Nasdaq, and bond markets closed, leaving Bitcoin as the only major financial market open to absorb the data. The number was striking: 178,000 jobs added against a consensus of roughly 57,000, the strongest monthly gain since late 2024. A strong labour market gives the Federal Reserve less reason to cut rates, and tighter financial conditions are a headwind for risk assets. Layer on top of that an oil price above $115 per barrel feeding directly into this week's PCE and CPI prints, and the near-term inflation picture looks challenging. Models suggest U.S. CPI could rise toward 3.7% if oil stays elevated, well above the Fed's target, and a further reason for the Fed to hold. Bitcoin has faced all of this: a resilient labour market, inflation risk, a prolonged conflict, and has not broken. That in itself is the story.

The tailwinds — structural and building: The macro backdrop looks tough on the surface, but the picture underneath is more nuanced and more interesting. March's jobs number was strong, but much of it was a one-off catch-up from a healthcare strike, and payroll figures have been revised materially lower in recent months. If the next round of data softens, the Fed's case for holding rates weakens with it. And if inflation keeps rising, as oil prices suggest it might, history shows central banks eventually move to protect growth, whether that means cutting rates or simply stepping back from any threat of hikes. That is where Bitcoin's structural edge comes in. Since spot ETFs launched in January 2024, institutions have begun positioning months ahead of policy shifts rather than reacting to them. 

By the time a Fed pivot becomes consensus, Bitcoin is likely to have already moved. That institutional shift is also what has kept the floor intact through all of the noise. ETF analyst James Seyffart made the logical endpoint of this trend explicit this week: Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately surpass gold ETFs in total AUM, because Bitcoin simply offers more reasons to own it — store of value, portfolio diversifier, growth trade, digital capital. The March flow data already reflects the shift, with gold ETFs shedding $2.92 billion while Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows over the same period. And the early April data suggests that bid is not letting up – see more in this week’s data story below. Contrary to a persistent narrative, Bitcoin's rise does not threaten the dollar, it reinforces it. The largest Bitcoin trading pair is BTC/USDТ, creating a petrodollar-like dynamic where growing Bitcoin adoption drives structural demand for the dollar alongside it.

The infrastructure is in place. The institutional floor is holding. Bitcoin has held remarkably well against a wall of crosswinds, and the conditions that could turn those crosswinds into tailwinds are closer than the current fear reading suggests.

TradFi trends

Tokenization builds, liquidity shifts

Tokenization: a roadmap, not a trade. Grayscale's head of research Zach Pandl sees tokenization unfolding in phases: early wins going to permissioned, institution-friendly networks, hybrid models like Avalanche next, and Ethereum as the longer-term bet. At $27 billion today, tokenized assets are projected to reach $19 trillion by 2033. 

One to watch: Japan's bond market. Japan's 10-year yield hit its highest level since 1999, putting pressure on institutions to shore up balance sheets and pull capital home. It is one factor among several weighing on global liquidity and worth monitoring as it develops. Stablecoin market cap meanwhile sits at all-time highs, suggesting capital is on the sidelines.

Macroeconomic roundup

The four prints that matter

With Bitcoin near $69,000, four releases this week could move the asset each day. Oil up 50% since late February has already fed into inflation expectations. This week is where that shows up in the numbers.

FOMC Minutes (Wed): Markets will scan for how officials weighed rising oil and growth risks. A hawkish tilt pressures BTC, while a dovish surprise could support recovery.

Core PCE Inflation (Thu): Core consensus at 3.0% year-over-year. A beat reinforces higher-for-longer; a miss could lift BTC.

GDP Final Estimate (Thu): Consensus at 0.7% annualised, down sharply from Q3's 4.4%. Further weakness paradoxically supports crypto by raising easing expectations.

March CPI (Fri): The week's main event. Consensus at 3.3% year-over-year — the largest single-month jump since 2022. Everything hinges on core: at or below 0.3% monthly, markets treat the spike as transitory. At 0.4% or above, rate cuts could get repriced out of 2026 entirely. The sequencing matters: Wednesday sets the tone, Thursday builds the picture, Friday delivers the verdict. A dovish sweep favours upside. A hawkish one puts $65,000 back in focus.

For the full events calendar, see our macro calendar on X.

The week's most interesting data story

The ETF reversal comes back

US spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped positive in March, recording $1.32 billion in net inflows and marking the first positive monthly figure since October 2025. The reversal coincided with Bitcoin's first positive monthly price candle in six months, suggesting institutions viewed the $66,000–$68,000 range as an entry point. The broader market is showing early signs of stabilisation too: perpetual leverage has reset, implied volatility has softened, and spot demand is beginning to improve, meaning sellers are no longer in full control. The market is out of outright stress and with the institutional bid returning, the setup heading into Q2 is more constructive than the current fear reading suggests. And April is off to a strong start — ETFs recorded $471 million in net inflows on 6 April  alone.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$210,000 – Won by a solo Bitcoin miner with 0.00002% of network hashrate this week. Odds: 1 in 28,000 per day.

1,600 blocks – All that stands between now and the halfway point to Bitcoin's next halving. About 11 days away.

40,000 ETH – Bitmine's latest buy, worth ~$82 million, pushing its holdings to 4.7 million ETH to target 5% of total supply.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Bitcoin trends explained by a pro.

Bitcoin’s maturity recognized.

Bitcoin’s biggest bull is back in action.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].