Dispatch #286: The structural forces driving Bitcoin and crypto

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• ETH gets a roadmap update  
• A big week for the U.S. job market
• BTC’s latest moves examined

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Market cast

BTC: Early signs of a momentum shift?

Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing early signs of fading bearish momentum. Price has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band, a volatility-based indicator signaling stretched conditions, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillator – both momentum indicators, have exited oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is easing. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a trend-following momentum indicator, remains negative, but its histogram is rising toward the zero line, indicating momentum is improving rather than deteriorating.

On the daily timeframe, the structure is more constructive. Bitcoin is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting strengthening short-term expansion. The Stochastic is rising from oversold levels, the RSI is neutral but trending higher, and the MACD histogram is firmly positive, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias. Support lies around $67,500, followed by the more significant $65,000 level. Resistance stands near $70,000, with a stronger supply zone between $76,000 and $77,000. A sustained move above $70,000 would strengthen upside momentum, while holding above $67,500 preserves the improving technical backdrop.

The big idea

Bitcoin (non-macro) market movers

Dispatch editors proposed (just for once) to stay out of macro. Yet our poll voters steered the narrative directly towards it, as nearly 40% still see it as Bitcoin’s primary market mover. With fresh U.S. labour data on deck, we will give it the attention it deserves in this week’s Macroeconomic roundup below. But it is not acting alone – AI sentiment, ETF flows and whale positioning are moving the tape as well.

Is AI a liquidity catalyst or constraint: Last week’s swings were closely tied to the AI narrative. Nvidia reported record revenue of $68.1 billion and guided higher – yet the stock sold off as investors shifted from celebrating growth to questioning the sustainability of capital spending. That pivot rippled through technology stocks and into crypto. When AI fuels risk-on positioning, Bitcoin benefits. When sentiment cools, liquidity tightens just as quickly. But AI’s influence may extend beyond equity mood swings. AI, in other words, is increasingly a macro variable.

Geopolitics: Weekend tensions briefly pushed Bitcoin toward $63,000 before a strong rebound above $70,000. For now, markets appear to be pricing episodic volatility rather than structural escalation. The transmission channel is energy: sustained crude strength feeds inflation expectations and tightens financial conditions; fading premiums ease pressure.

Whales, ETFs and the BTC reserve question: Structural demand continues to build quietly. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $1 billion in inflows across three consecutive sessions last week before a modest $27.55 million outflow, with total net assets still above $83.4 billion. Institutional participation remains meaningful even as volatility persists. At the same time, on-chain data show that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have accumulated nearly 100,000 bitcoin since mid-February. That scale of positioning suggests large holders are using volatility to add exposure rather than reduce it – a familiar pattern during periods of stress, when stronger hands absorb supply from weaker participants.

The reserve narrative is also evolving. Missouri has advanced legislation to establish a state-level Bitcoin reserve, joining a growing list of states exploring similar frameworks. At the federal level, a United States strategic Bitcoin reserve is already in place. As geopolitical fragmentation intensifies and diversification away from the dollar gains momentum, Bitcoin’s appeal as a politically neutral reserve asset is being tested in real time – even if volatility keeps it from challenging gold outright.

Ethereum

A roadmap and a (valuation) test for ETH

Ethereum’s new “Strawmap” lays out seven forks through 2029 and five priorities: faster Layer 1 performance, higher throughput, post-quantum security, native privacy and tighter Layer 1–Layer 2 coordination. It is less a traditional roadmap and more a long-term response plan to scaling, security and governance risk.

Why it matters: Investors now have a cadence to judge execution. At roughly $2,000 per ETH, a move toward $10,000 by the end of the decade would require more than macro liquidity. It would demand confidence that Ethereum can scale without fragmenting and preserve value capture at the base layer as Layer 2 expands. Strawmap does not guarantee that outcome – but it gives the market milestones to test it.

TradFi trends

Crypto awaits Washington’s move

While crypto sentiment searches for direction, regulatory positioning in Washington is quietly shifting. JPMorgan analysts see potential mid-year approval of U.S. market structure legislation – the CLARITY Act, as a possible second-half catalyst. The bill would clarify whether tokens fall under CFTC or SEC oversight, ease compliance uncertainty, and promote tokenization – a step that could unlock broader institutional participation.

Meanwhile, the SEC is recalibrating its stance. Chair Paul Atkins recently described prior crypto oversight as a “missed opportunity,” signaling a move away from enforcement-first policy. The agency has already approved tokenized money market funds with 24/7 trading and instant settlement. As institutional rails continue to advance, these structural developments may matter more than short-term price swings.

Macroeconomic roundup

The U.S. job market – A real macro test for markets

With Bitcoin near $70,000 and sentiment fragile, this week’s U.S. data may define March’s direction.

ADP & Services (Wed): ADP is seen near 50,000, with services around 52–53. Firm data strengthens the “higher for longer” case; weakness would support risk assets.

Jobless Claims (Thu): Forecast near 215,000. Persistent tightness supports hawkish pricing; a spike would soften rate expectations.

Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri): Consensus sits near 54,000, with wages at 0.3% month-on-month.

Unemployment Rate (Fri): Expected at 4.3%. A surprise uptick would accelerate easing bets; continued stability reinforces Fed patience.

For full timings, see our macro calendar on X.

The week's most interesting data story

Will this be Bitcoin’s thinnest drawdown?

Bitcoin continues to consolidate after rebounding from the $60,000 region, with the 7-day moving average drawdown from the all-time high now near 47% – a level historically associated with mid-cycle stress. In prior cycles, prolonged compression at similar depths sometimes preceded further downside, particularly if higher levels above $70,000 were not reclaimed decisively. Yet the structural picture is more nuanced this time. Roughly 9.2 million BTC, nearly half of circulating supply, are currently held at a loss. Historically, such elevated “supply in loss” readings have been characteristic of late-stage bear conditions rather than the early phases of contraction, suggesting broad capitulation may already be well advanced. While volatility and fragility persist, the current drawdown appears closer to exhaustion territory than to the onset of a deeper expansion lower. For a full structural breakdown, see Glassnode’s latest on-chain analysis.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$1 billion – Crypto exchange-traded products posted their first weekly inflows since January.

$22.4 trillion – U.S. M2 money supply reached a record high in January.

144.40 trillion – Bitcoin mining difficulty rose 15% in its largest increase since 2021.

$90,000 – Options positioning shows growing call exposure at $80,000 and $90,000.

8.6 million – Daily new Solana addresses are up 1.4 million in under two weeks.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

There is no stopping this Strategy.

Price discovery on the blockchain.

Bitcoin holders show nerves of steel.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].