Dispatch #278: Crypto starts 2026

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch: 

Market cast

Early bullish signals for BTC?

Bitcoin enters the week having reclaimed the $93,000 level. Sentiment is improving beneath the surface, supported by renewed institutional demand via spot ETFs and a broader early-year recovery across crypto markets.

On the weekly chart, price has rebounded from the 100-period simple moving average, a key trend support, and is now approaching resistance at the 50-period SMA and the mid-Bollinger Band (20-period SMA). Momentum indicators are turning constructive: the Stochastic oscillator has exited oversold territory, the RSI remains neutral but trending higher, and while the MACD histogram remains slightly negative, the narrowing gap between signal lines points to fading bearish pressure.

The daily chart reinforces this improving bias. Price has pushed above the upper Bollinger Band, signalling strong upside momentum. The Stochastic oscillator is holding above 80, the RSI is elevated, and the MACD histogram is firmly positive – confirming near-term strength, even as conditions appear stretched.

From a levels perspective, $90,000 is the first support, with $87,000 below, while resistance sits near $94,000 ahead of the psychological $100,000 mark.

The big idea

Crypto’s first signals in 2026

The first days of a new year often arrive quietly in markets, with positioning light, volumes thin, and expectations still forming. Crypto is no exception. As 2026 begins, price action feels measured rather than urgent – less about bold moves and more about reading the landscape.

At the start of 2026, crypto price action is being shaped less by headlines and more by macro data, capital flows, and on-chain positioning.

That shift matters because 2025 delivered nearly everything the market had been pushing toward for years. Institutional validation moved from promise to reality. Regulatory clarity improved materially. Spot ETFs launched and scaled, Bitcoin set new all-time highs, and strategic reserve narratives entered the mainstream.

With so many long-awaited milestones now behind us, the question for 2026 is no longer what crypto still needs to achieve, but what actually drives markets once those boxes are checked.

Macroeconomic data: January’s macro calendar is dense and market-moving. U.S. labor market reports – including ADP employment, jobless claims hovering near the 200,000 level, and December Nonfarm Payrolls expected around 50,000–60,000,  will shape expectations around growth and monetary policy. Inflation remains central to the outlook, with U.S. CPI near 2.7% year-on-year and eurozone inflation around 2.1%. These releases feed directly into rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January policy decision. Bitcoin’s recent trading suggests it is increasingly absorbing these inputs without outsized reactions.

ETF flows as a measure of institutional positioning: Capital flows are offering clearer signals. After more than $6 billion in combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows across November and December, early January brought a meaningful reversal. On January 2 alone, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded roughly $646 million in net inflows – among the strongest daily totals in weeks. 

Long-term holder positioning on-chain: Beneath the surface, long-term holders remain a stabilizing force. Despite volatility last year, selling pressure from this cohort has stayed limited. Exchange balances remain relatively constrained, and on-chain data points to a supply base that continues to favor longer holding periods rather than short-term distribution. Taken together, these numbers help explain why early-2026 price action feels measured yet constructive. Moves may take longer to develop, but they are increasingly grounded in macro data, observable capital flows, and a holder base with longer time horizons.

Crypto enters 2026 not searching for validation, but operating within a more disciplined market structure – one where macro reports, ETF flows, and long-term holder behavior collectively shape the path forward.

Ethereum

ETH’s on-chain activity hits record levels

Ethereum closed 2025 with a sharp acceleration in network usage. Daily transactions climbed to 1.87–2.23 million, active monthly addresses reached 10.4 million, and new address creation marked its strongest day since 2018 – a trend we examine more closely in this week’s data section.

Institutions move cash on-chain: Institutional adoption is becoming more concrete. JPMorgan’s launch of MONY, a tokenized money market fund issued natively on Ethereum, places short-term U.S. Treasuries directly on a public blockchain, with ownership and daily yield accrual recorded on-chain.

Stablecoins drive real-world usage: Ethereum processed over $8 trillion in stablecoin transfers in Q4, nearly double Q2 volumes. Stablecoin issuance on the network rose 43% in 2025 to $181 billion, leaving Ethereum with 57% of global stablecoin supply and roughly 65% of on-chain real-world asset value.

Upgrades reinforce the long-term roadmap: Following the Pectra and Fusaka upgrades in 2025, Ethereum’s roadmap extends into 2026 with further scalability gains and early zkEVM adoption. Vitalik Buterin argues these advances have effectively resolved the blockchain trilemma in practice, supporting higher throughput without sacrificing decentralization.

Macroeconomic roundup

Catalyst-heavy: Labor data sets the tone for crypto

Markets enter the first full trading week of 2026 cautiously positioned. Equities are steady, yields remain sensitive, and Bitcoin is consolidating near recent levels as investors weigh early-year positioning against a dense run of U.S. labor data. With Fed rate-cut expectations finely balanced, this week’s releases will shape near-term risk appetite.

ADP Employment (Wednesday): Forecasts point to a modest 47K job gain. A weak print would reinforce easing expectations; a sharp upside surprise risks firmer yields and softer risk sentiment.

JOLTS Job Openings (Wednesday): Expected near 7.65M. A continued decline would support a soft-landing narrative, while stabilization could weigh on easing bets.

Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday): Claims are seen around 216K. A gradual rise would bolster the labor-cooling thesis; a drop back toward 200K could challenge it.

Employment Report & Wages (Friday): Payrolls are projected at 57K with unemployment near 4.5%. Wage growth remains key. Soft jobs and moderating pay would support risk assets; resilience on either front could pressure Bitcoin into the close.

The year’s most interesting data story

Is ETH’s on-chain surge sending out a signal?

A quiet but significant shift is unfolding on Ethereum. Daily transactions reached a new all-time high at 1.87 million on a seven-day average, surpassing both the 2021 DeFi peak and last year’s highs, while active addresses climbed to 728,904 and new address creation hit its strongest single day since 2018. Previous surges in network activity have often coincided with periods of stronger price performance, as rising usage eventually fed into market narratives. Notably, this upswing in on-chain activity is occurring even as ETH remains range-bound near $3,000, suggesting usage momentum may be building ahead of broader market recognition.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$100,000 – The Bitcoin price level targeted by the most active January call options, reflecting bullish positioning in early 2026.

8,888 BTC – The amount of Bitcoin Tether bought in Q4 2025 under its policy of allocating 15% of quarterly profits to BTC.

320,000 ETH – The volume of Ethereum accumulated by whales in recent days, even as derivatives positioning remains crowded.