Dispatch #235: Bitcoin reserve: confirmed

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• XRP rushes to ETFs
• Macro effects continue
• Bitcoin whale sightings

Market cast 

Bitcoin's volatile dance with Wall Street

Bitcoin's recent price adjustment appears linked to the U.S. administration’s policies, with crypto increasingly mirroring the S&P 500 amid a surge in the VIX volatility index. Upcoming U.S. CPI/PPI data could either spark a rebound or prolong the recalibration. This price action coincides with Bitcoin’s highest volatility of the year, with its annualized rate peaking at 59.4% last Monday and stabilizing around 58%.

On the technical side, oscillators are pointing to bearish momentum as the market nears oversold levels. The $80,000 level remains a key support, with further downward moves potentially testing the recent low near the $76,600 and $72,500 marks. Conversely, overcoming resistance around $84,000 and $90,000 could set the stage for a bullish reversal. Overall, while caution prevails, these technical levels offer clear signals that could pave the way for stabilization or a modest recovery as economic data unfolds.

The big idea

From Bitcoin pizzas to Bitcoin reserves

Almost fifteen years after Bitcoin Pizza Day, when Laszlo Hanyecz traded 10,000 BTC for two pizzas, Bitcoin has transformed from a quirky experiment to a cornerstone of global finance. Once a curiosity, Bitcoin now trades above $80,000, with exchange-traded products drawing over $90 billion in their first year – surpassing those of gold and reaching a market cap that peaked above $2 trillion.

Last week, Bitcoin earned its greatest accolade: serving as a reserve asset. At the recent White House crypto summit, President Trump reaffirmed his vision to make the U.S. a “Bitcoin superpower”, promising to reverse restrictive policies and boost crypto holdings. This commitment was further underscored by a key executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile, ensuring Bitcoin will be preserved as a long-term asset, similar to a digital Fort Knox.

Here are Bitcoin’s latest laurels:

• Reserve developments: The executive order mandates that $17 billion worth of Bitcoin, will be held as a strategic reserve for the long term.
• Crypto summit: President Trump committed to lifting restrictions on crypto, focusing on building U.S. holdings.
• Treasury Secretary’s stance: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the current Bitcoin stockpile will be maintained, hinting at future acquisitions.

As Bitcoin continues to reaffirm, the question becomes: what’s next? More nation states could follow the U.S. example by establishing their own national Bitcoin reserves. This move might trigger a wave of demand and, potentially, lead Bitcoin to its first seven-digit price. With increasing utility, strong institutional support, and growing government acceptance that could all be a matter of time.

Ethereum

ETH’s treasury status

Last week in Dispatch, we noted ETH whales buying the dip, and new developments backing Ethereum’s strong appeal. BioNexus Gene Lab, a Malaysian healthcare tech company, has adopted an Ethereum-first treasury strategy, citing key advantages that make Ethereum an attractive asset:

• Broader utility: Ethereum isn’t just a digital currency; its programmable platform powers a wide array of financial applications, from decentralized finance (DeFi) to stablecoin settlements.
• Institutional adoption: BioNexus’s decision highlights the growing institutional confidence in Ethereum, further bolstered by a regulatory-friendly environment in Wyoming that fosters blockchain innovation.

While Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade faces a delay, BioNexus's move highlights the asset’s long-term potential and its evolving role in modern finance.

Crypto taxes: As easy as 1, 2, 3

As tax season gets going, reporting crypto-related taxes can feel overwhelming. Our partnership with Koinly, a leading crypto tax platform, is established to help users streamline the process.

Head over to the latest blog post, where you’ll find:

✔️ A clear overview of how crypto is taxed in different LATAM jurisdictions. ✔️ Taxable events – what triggers a tax obligation. ✔️ Capital gains & income tax rates and their impact on crypto. ✔️ Reporting requirements and key deadlines to stay compliant. ✔️ How our partners from Koinly can help streamline your tax reporting.

Hot in crypto

The race for XRP ETFs

XRP is taking center stage as excitement grows around the potential launch of several new exchange-traded funds (ETFs). With Volatility Shares filing for a spot XRP ETF, a 2x leveraged XRP ETF, and an inverse -1x XRP ETF, the move signals a growing wave of institutional interest in XRP's market. Traders are now anticipating regulatory approval for a spot XRP ETF, with Polymarket showing a 77% chance of approval this year. While the first spot XRP ETF is set to launch in Brazil, all eyes are on the U.S. as the crypto community eagerly awaits what could be a major milestone in XRP’s journey.

TradFi trends

Crypto’s good example

Nasdaq is set to introduce 24-hour trading by mid-2026, a move driven by the growing influence of crypto markets. Nasdaq President Tal Cohen cited increased global retail investment and demand from international investors as key factors behind the shift. As more investors turn to U.S. markets, particularly in the APAC region, the extended hours will make trading more accessible. This decision mirrors the 24/7 nature of crypto trading, where markets never close, and reflects a broader shift towards real-time, continuous trading.

Macroeconomic round up

Macro data on deck: what’s next for Bitcoin?

A week of key economic reports is ahead. Could they move markets and shape Bitcoin's outlook? Here’s what to watch for:

• JOLTS (Tue): Job openings above 7.6M could signal labor market strength, boosting the USD and pressuring BTC. A weak print might fuel rate-cut bets and support Bitcoin.
• U.S. CPI (Wed): Inflation forecast at 2.9%. A hot number could delay Fed cuts, while a cooler print might lift BTC sentiment.
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Expected at 220,000. A lower figure signals economic strength, while a rise could reinforce rate-cut hopes and benefit BTC.
• U.S. PPI (Thu): Wholesale inflation trends could sway rate expectations—higher PPI could pressure BTC, while a weaker reading may support it.
• Consumer Sentiment (Fri): A strong reading may favor stocks over BTC, while a weak one could boost Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal.

The week’s most interesting data story

Bitcoin whales show up

It seems that Bitcoin’s largest holders are back in action, returning to their buying ways after a brief period of distribution. With over $400 million worth of Bitcoin already accumulated this month, whales holding over 1,000 BTC are signaling renewed confidence in the asset. After a period of accumulation followed by strategic distribution, these big players are once again stacking up, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for the market.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

• $713,000 – Mark Quant's Monte Carlo model forecasts Bitcoin could hit this by September 2025.
• $100 trillion – Michael Saylor claims clear crypto regulations and strategic Bitcoin acquisitions could unlock $100 trillion in U.S. economic value over the next decade.
• $677 million – Solana’s protocol updates could reduce annual selling pressure by over half a billion.
• $11.9 billion – OpenAI secures a five-year contract with CoreWeave to deliver the advanced AI infrastructure essential for training its ChatGPT models.
• 76% – Polymarket bettors estimate the chance of XRP ETF approval by 2025, as several applications undergo review at the SEC.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing?

The cheese-to-Bitcoin strategy?

The gold-to-Bitcoin strategy?

Or the $21-billion-Saylor strategy?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].