Dispatch #253: Bitcoin’s market-powered all-time high

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• All about Crypto Week
• ETH’s record week
• Macro’s inflation week

Market cast

BTC: Consolidation before further discovery?

Bitcoin entered price discovery after breaking to new all-time highs, briefly testing levels above $120,000. However, it has since retreated slightly and has yet to close decisively above that mark on higher timeframes, signaling hesitation at key resistance.

On the weekly chart, the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirm a strong bullish trend. However, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are flashing early signs of exhaustion.

The daily chart tells a similar story: trend signals remain bullish, but momentum is pulling back from overbought territory. This setup suggests the potential for a short-term pullback or a period of consolidation. Immediate resistance stands at $120,000 and $123,000; a decisive breakout could open the path toward $130,000. Support lies where those levels once acted as resistance – around $112,000 and $110,000, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands offering additional dynamic support.

The big idea

The sync behind Bitcoin’s $120,000+ run

We’ve been anticipating this for weeks, if you’ve been following the last few editions. Bitcoin had been consolidating just below all-time highs, with resilient holders staying put, institutional inflows building, and supply tightening. Now, the breakout has arrived. BTC has surged past $123,000, setting a new record and securing its place as the world’s fifth-largest asset by market capitalization — ahead of Amazon, Silver, and Google.

Now at $2.4 trillion, Bitcoin’s ascent is more than just price action. It reflects deep structural shifts, from corporate treasuries and ETF inflows to its growing role as a macro hedge. Far from a hype-fueled rally, this breakout is powered by conviction and disciplined accumulation. Here’s the breakdown:

Retail holders are sitting tight: One of the most striking aspects of this rally is what hasn't happened: retail holders haven’t sold into strength. Wallets holding up to 10 BTC, typically associated with long-term retail investors, have kept their collective stash of around 3.4 million BTC steady since late 2022. Wallets with up to 100 BTC have been absorbing more than the entire monthly BTC issuance post-halving, adding roughly 19,300 BTC per month versus just 13,400 newly mined. This grassroots demand creates “critical structural support,” according to media reports. Retail isn’t back because it never left and their grip is tighter than the price volatility.

Corporates double down on Bitcoin: While retail stays steady, corporations are going on the offensive. Metaplanet, the Japan-listed firm that pivoted from hospitality to a Bitcoin-first strategy, just added 797 BTC, bringing its total to over 16,000, with a target of 210,000 BTC by 2027. It’s part of a growing wave of treasury builders, including DDC Enterprise, Remixpoint, H100 Group, LQWD Technologies, Solar Bank, and DigitalX, all raising capital to accumulate BTC at scale. According to a recent Keyrock report, these firms now hold around 725,000 BTC, or 3.6% of total supply. Michael Saylor’s Strategy added another 4,225 BTC in July, bringing its total to 601,550 BTC — now worth over $72 billion.

ETFs cement Bitcoin in big finance: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are hitting new records, with total net asset value now over $158 billion. Last Thursday and Friday marked the strongest two-day stretch since launch, pulling in $2.21 billion in combined inflows (more in our data story below). Capital continues to pour in, underscoring Bitcoin’s rise as a regulated, long-term asset increasingly likened to digital gold. These ETFs now hold more than 1.26 million BTC or 6% of total supply. The surge isn’t driven by hype, but by deep institutional conviction and integration into traditional finance.

Behind the scenes, Bitcoin’s resurgence mirrors a broader macro shift. As governments run record deficits, central banks walk a tightrope on rates, and trade tensions mount, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against instability. Upcoming U.S. legislation (you’ll see more below), adds another layer of confidence. And whispers of sovereign-level BTC adoption only raise the stakes. What’s powering Bitcoin above $123,000 isn’t noise — it’s conviction capital. Institutions are in, corporations are doubling down, and retail holders are refusing to blink. Looks like BTC market participants are in sync, and that’s a big idea.

TradFi trends

Crypto Week takes over the U.S. Congress 

Crypto has moved from the margins to the main stage in Washington, as lawmakers advance a trio of sweeping bills that could redefine how the U.S. financial system engages with digital assets. Branded “Crypto Week” by House Republicans, this week’s legislative blitz includes the GENIUS Act (stablecoins), the Clarity Act (crypto market structure), and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (blocking a Fed-issued digital dollar).

Backed by President Trump, dubbed the “first crypto president”, the effort carries major implications for traditional finance. If passed, the stablecoin bill alone could pressure leading payment networks as transactions increasingly move on-chain. The media say, crypto week could change everything from how Americans make payments to how they invest and save. Much like Nexo has done. Washington isn’t just warming up to crypto — it’s working to rewrite the rules around it.

Ethereum

ETH is in Bitcoin’s steps

While Bitcoin grabbed headlines with its new all-time high, Ethereum is quietly staging a breakout of its own, reclaiming $3,000 for the first time this year. Here’s what’s behind the momentum.

Miners pivot to ETH treasuries: Former Bitcoin miner BTC Digital (BTCT) allocated $1M into ETH, calling it “digital gold” and the foundation for on-chain USD settlement. The firm plans to grow its reserve as regulation and infrastructure mature.

Record ETF demand: Ethereum spot ETFs pulled in $907 million in weekly inflows — their strongest showing yet, with cumulative flows topping $5billion.

ETH futures flip Bitcoin: Late last week, Ethereum futures volume surpassed Bitcoin’s for the first time ever — $62.1B vs. $61.7B — signaling a shift in trader positioning and capital allocation.

Scaling on the horizon: Ethereum core developers are working to integrate zero-knowledge proofs at Layer 1 by November — a critical step toward unlocking native scalability.

Macroeconomic roundup

Inflation week in macroeconomics

U.S. consumer inflation rose slightly in June, with headline CPI reaching 2.7% YoY versus a 2.6% forecast. On a monthly basis, CPI matched expectations at 0.3%, suggesting inflation is steady. Could this in-tune readout be enough to nudge the Fed toward a rate cut? There’s more to come in this inflation-packed week.

U.K. CPI (July 16): June’s inflation print will influence the Bank of England’s rate outlook. A slowdown could ease pressure on the pound and support broader risk-on sentiment.

U.S. PPI (July 16): Producer inflation offers a forward-looking view on consumer prices. A softer number may ease policy tightening fears and support Bitcoin’s upside.

Eurozone CPI (July 17): With the ECB in data-dependent mode, this inflation release could steer rate expectations. Cooling figures may open the door to easing later this year.

U.S. Jobless Claims (July 17): Weekly claims are expected to rise slightly. An uptick would signal labor softening, increasing odds of Fed cuts — a tailwind for crypto.

U.S. Retail Sales (July 17): June spending data will gauge consumer strength. Weakness here could reinforce slowdown concerns and bolster the case for a more accommodative Fed stance.

The week’s most interesting data story

Bitcoin ETFs’ best week ever

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in a staggering $2.72 billion in just two days — the first time since launch they've seen consecutive $1 billion+ inflow sessions. With total market cap now above $150 billion, the data highlights surging institutional demand. On July 11 alone, ETFs bought nearly 10,000 BTC, while the network produced just 450 — a striking signal of supply pressure in real time.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

• $131  billion – Estimated value of Satoshi Nakamoto’s BTC stash, placing him 11th on the global rich list.
• $3.7  billion – Weekly inflows into crypto funds, second-highest on record, per CoinShares.
• $200  million – Upexi’s capital raise to double its Solana treasury to 1.65 million tokens.
• $10,000 – Projected ETH price surge tied to staking ETF approval and rising institutional demand.
• $200,000 – Year-end BTC target due to accelerating institutional inflows.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

That’s a great perspective on ETH.

OK, that still means they are holding.

Nexo's X community on-top the leading BTC trends.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].