Dispatch #245: From two pizzas to all-time highs

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

More signal for ETH
The stablecoin revolution
DOGE leads the pack again

Market cast

Is BTC’s breakout in sight?

Bitcoin continues to trade with a firmly bullish bias across both the weekly and daily timeframes. On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, pointing to sustained upside momentum. Momentum indicators like the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are also flashing strong signals: the Stochastic is deep in overbought territory, while the RSI is approaching that zone – both suggesting a powerful, though potentially overextended, move.

The daily chart reinforces this narrative, with key oscillators firmly overbought and no clear signs of a momentum shift. Price remains well above all major moving averages, keeping the broader outlook bullish. Immediate resistance lies around $106,000 and the all-time high, while initial support is seen near $101,000, with the psychologically important $100,000 level just below.

The big idea

From pizzas to peaks: Is Bitcoin ready to erupt?

Fifteen years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz traded 10,000 BTC for two pizzas. It was a modest meal — but a historic moment. At the time, the Bitcoin he spent was worth just $41. Today, that same amount is worth over $1 billion. Laszlo couldn’t have imagined just how far this digital experiment would go — or that one day, Bitcoin would be flirting with six-figure prices.

Now, with Bitcoin holding above $105,000 and sitting just 5% below its all-time high, investors are asking a familiar question: how much higher could it go? The rally from $84,000 has reignited market interest and revealed deeper structural forces at play – forces that suggest this might be more than just another bullish phase.

Here are the key drivers behind its next potential breakout:

Growing institutional confidence: JP Morgan analysts say Bitcoin has more upside potential than gold, driven by crypto-native catalysts and deeper institutional integration. This is not just theory – real-world developments are backing it. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer puts it plainly: Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio is now rivaling gold’s. But unlike gold, Bitcoin brings torque. With its Sharpe ratio climbing and 88% of supply in profit, BTC is earning its place as the asymmetric bet of this cycle — a “Swiss army knife” asset built for both chaos and clarity. These moves could attract more traditional players, further deepening market liquidity and resilience.

ETH inflows and treasury support: Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to outpace gold ETFs for the third straight month, underscoring a structural shift in investor behavior. With digital asset inflows now surpassing $7.5 billion year-to-date – and recovering all losses from the February–March correction – allocators are clearly reaffirming their thesis. What was once a contrarian strategy is becoming embedded in policy and portfolio construction. Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset – it’s being codified into financial infrastructure.

A weakening macro backdrop (for fiat): Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt isn’t welcome news for traditional markets – but it may indirectly benefit Bitcoin, especially at the institutional level, where alternative stores of value like Bitcoin look increasingly compelling. The more credibility sovereign debt loses, the more oxygen crypto gains.

In a market looking for its next Big idea, Bitcoin may already be it. Between institutional momentum, regulatory tailwinds, and a weakening fiat backdrop, the conditions are aligning for something larger than a rally. This could be Bitcoin’s moment to erupt – not just in price, but in narrative.

Ethereum

Is ETH the next leg up?

Ethereum is down about 5% on the week, but still up over 50% in the past month, as a wave of notable developments continues to support long-term momentum. The Ethereum Foundation unveiled its Trillion-Dollar Security (1TS) initiative – an ambitious, multi-stage effort to harden the network’s infrastructure for institutional-scale use. The goal: make Ethereum secure enough to safeguard billions of users and support smart contracts handling up to $1 trillion.

And there’s more. A new CryptoQuant report shows ETH is trading at its deepest discount to BTC since 2019. Historically, this level of undervaluation has marked major turning points. ETF inflows, trading volumes, and on-chain metrics all point to rising confidence in Ethereum’s next leg higher. Once more, time will tell.

Hot in crypto

The DOGE to lead them all

Dogecoin is emerging as a leader in the ongoing meme coin rebound, supported by notable accumulation from large holders. On-chain data shows that whales have added over 1 billion DOGE in recent weeks, bringing their total holdings to nearly 26 billion coins – a signal of growing confidence among major players.

This activity comes as DOGE maintains support above $0.215 despite broader market volatility. The price has shown an ascending structure with multiple high-volume rebounds, including several spikes exceeding 8 million in trading volume. Technical indicators point to a potential bull flag, with a breakout above $0.220 opening the door to a move toward $0.35.

TradFi trends

The great stablecoin integration

Stablecoins are now moving more weekly volume than Visa and PayPal combined, and institutions are taking note. Tether just crossed $150 billion in supply, but the real story is the structural shift in adoption.

A new Fireblocks report shows 86% of institutions now have systems ready for stablecoin integration, with nearly half already using them for payments. Compliance and regulatory concerns have dropped sharply, while cross-border payments lead use cases, cited by 58% of banks. Stablecoins are no longer just efficiency tools – they’re seen as growth infrastructure.

That thesis just got a major boost in Washington: the US Senate advanced the GENIUS Act with a 66–32 vote, sending landmark stablecoin legislation to the House.

Macroeconomic roundup

The Fed’s week ahead

It’s a packed week on the macro front, with over 10 Federal Reserve speakers scheduled – including Williams, Bostic, and Kashkari – each offering potential clues on the direction of U.S. monetary policy. With markets on edge over inflation and rate path uncertainty, even slight shifts in tone could spark volatility across risk assets, including crypto.

Thursday’s jobless claims release is the main data highlight. A surprise in either direction could move expectations on rate cuts – and by extension, crypto market sentiment. Expect noise, possibly mixed signals, and a high-stakes environment where macro moves may outweigh on-chain trends.

The week’s most interesting data story

The way to take profit

Bitcoin’s rally to $105,000 has triggered some profit-taking, but realized gains remain well below historical peaks, according to Glassnode. Short-term holders are selling into strength, but not aggressively, suggesting there’s still fuel in the tank. With spot buying steady and leverage contained, the data supports a view of bullish consolidation – and leaves the door open for further upside.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

$1 billion – Publicly-listed Basel Medical (Singapore) expands to BTC holdings through a landmark deal.
$691 million – Hong Kong-based Avenir expands Bitcoin holdings to become Asia’s biggest holder.
$512 million – Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, holds over half a billion in Bitcoin exposure via ETFs

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

Sat or Satoshi? The discussion is up.

Is Bitcoin free from gold’s influence?

That’s the “eruption” we talk about.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].