Dispatch #239: Patience, in practice
Apr 08•6 min read
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:
Final Pectra date
Bitcoin in the quantum age
Paris Blockchain Week
Market cast
Bitcoin tests its support zone amid technical tension
Bitcoin has quickly rebounded to hover just under $80,000, where it’s now consolidating. On the weekly chart, technical signals remain mixed: BTC has paused at its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), with $77,000 acting as strong short-term support. The Bollinger Bands suggest price action is leaning toward the lower band — a signal of lingering bearish pressure, though the relative strength index (RSI) remains neutral.
Momentum indicators tell a more balanced story: both Stochastic and MACD are in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum may be losing steam. On the daily chart, the recent SMA 50 / SMA 200 crossover confirms near-term bearish structure, but traders are watching $80,000 closely — a close above this level on either timeframe could flip it into support and reawaken bullish sentiment. Resistance sits at $85,000 and $86,500, while $77,000 remains firm support, with $74,000–74,500 as the key level below.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be in recalibration mode, with momentum compressed but not directionless — a setup that could tip quickly either way in the sessions ahead.
The big idea
Liberation Day tariffs: short-term shock, long-term perspective
Markets hate surprises, but they’re learning to recover faster. After last week’s shock tariff announcement from U.S. President Trump, dubbed Liberation Day, global markets sold off. Yet by Monday, what looked like the start of a broader correction had morphed into a full-blown rebound. Equities, crypto, and Asia-Pacific indexes all bounced back, with traders repositioning after brief speculation of a tariff delay – quickly denied by the White House.
Bitcoin recovered from its lows, European stocks opened higher, and volatility cooled across risk assets. Investors now shift their focus from headlines to fundamentals, with FOMC minutes due Wednesday and key labor market data arriving Friday.
If there’s one thing markets have taught us, it’s this: falling prices are not the enemy — rash decisions are. In moments like these, wealth isn’t just grown — it’s preserved. And smart preservation is often the best generator of long-term returns.
Markets have seen this movie before — and bounced back. In 2018, the U.S. launched a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of goods. At the time, markets reacted similarly: the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% between September and December 2018, as tariff escalation sparked recession fears. Yet by April 2019 — just four months later — the index had recovered all of its losses, ending the year up over 28%.
The key driver? Adjusted expectations. Once markets priced in the new trade dynamics and the Fed stepped in, risk appetite returned.
What about crypto? Interestingly, Bitcoin thrived during the same 2018–2019 stretch. Despite having entered a bear market earlier in 2018, BTC bottomed near $3,200 in December — almost in tandem with equities — and went on to rally 330% over the next six months, reaching $13,800 by June 2019. While causality is complex, the period demonstrated how crypto can benefit as an alternative asset.
We may be at a similar inflection point now.
Yes, tariffs can shake markets. But history suggests they rarely derail the longer-term trend. With rate cuts still on the horizon, resilient earnings, and institutional demand for digital assets holding strong, the road from shock to recovery may already be underway.
The market may not have fully settled yet, but seasoned investors know what to do when markets fall:
Reassess risk, but don’t retreat from conviction.
Diversify intelligently, not reactively.
Wait for narrative shifts — not just price moves.
Uncertainty creates imbalance, and imbalance creates opportunity. Playing smart doesn’t mean chasing the rebound. It means being positioned for when it happens.
Ethereum
Pectra gets an official date
Ethereum’s long-awaited Pectra upgrade is now officially slated for May 7, following a smooth rollout on the Hoodi testnet. Pectra’s third and final trial marked a quiet but meaningful milestone: it’s the first time in over a year that Ethereum core devs have scheduled a major mainnet upgrade with zero active bugs on testnet. After two earlier attempts revealed issues, this go-ahead reflects growing confidence in the stack — and in Ethereum’s post-Merge rhythm of upgrade execution. May 7 won’t just be a technical release — it’s a statement of operational maturity.
TradFi trends
Is Bitcoin edging away from Nasdaq’s shadow?
As U.S. equities slump under the weight of new tariffs, Bitcoin is starting to show signs of independence. While the Nasdaq tumbled another 5% on Friday — bringing its two-day drop to 11% — BTC held steady near $83K, eking out a small gain and signaling a potential decoupling from tech stocks. Analysts point to steady institutional accumulation and ongoing BTC treasury strategies as drivers of this resilience. If the trend holds, Bitcoin could be stepping into its long-touted role as a macro hedge — not just against inflation, but against market isolation and systemic risk.
Hot in crypto
Paris Blockchain Week sets the stage for crypto in Europe
Kicking off April 8 at the Carrousel du Louvre, Paris Blockchain Week brings together over 10,000 industry leaders to explore the future of crypto, regulation, and institutional adoption. Topics include MiCA implementation, asset tokenization, and stablecoin integration into global finance. Nexo will be represented by delegates on-site, engaging in key conversations and connecting with partners. Stay tuned for insights in next week’s Dispatch.
Blockchain
Preparing Bitcoin for the quantum age
A new draft Bitcoin proposal is sparking conversation across the developer community. The idea outlines a potential hard fork that would guide BTC holders to migrate funds from legacy wallets to ones protected by post-quantum cryptography. Why though? Bitcoin’s current signature system is highly secure today, yet it could become vulnerable in the future as quantum computing advances. This proposal isn’t a response to any immediate threat, but rather a preventive step to help future-proof the network. If adopted, the plan would introduce safeguards without affecting current wallet usability. While the discussion is just beginning, it reflects the community’s long-term commitment to keeping Bitcoin resilient in a fast-moving technological world.
Macroeconomic round up
Markets eye data closely
Investors are watching this week’s economic calendar closely. Highlights include:
March FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed): Could offer clarity on the Fed’s internal rate-cut debate.
Federal Budget Balance (Mar)(Wed): A widening deficit may fuel speculation around fiscal strain and its potential influence on monetary easing.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Any uptick could reinforce recession fears.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)(Thu): A key print; too hot and it could derail easing bets.
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)(Fri): A forward-looking inflation gauge; cooling numbers would support the case for earlier policy action, while an upside surprise could complicate it.
The week’s most interesting data story
Whales in, retail out
Accumulation trend data reveals a sharp divergence in behavior: entities holding over 10,000 BTC hit a perfect 1.0 accumulation score at the start of April, signaling intense, coordinated buying. That score has since eased but remains elevated, while smaller cohorts — from sub-1 BTC to 100 BTC wallets — have turned to distribution. The result: a widening gap between retail and institutional flows, with whales quietly stacking as others step back.
The numbers
Top 5 stats of the week
91,781 BTC – Public companies acquired this much Bitcoin in Q1 2025.
$3.5 billion – The crypto venture funding in March, the highest since March 2022.
40% – The chance that the Fed cuts rates by 25bps as early as next week.
27% – Bitcoin’s historic return in April.
0 Bitcoin – Strategy acquired 0 BTC from March 31 to April 6.
Hot topics
What the community is discussing
“IYKYK.”
An interesting breakdown of making Ethereum feel like a single chain again.
Really?
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