Dispatch #226: Bitcoin's sweet 16

Jan 07•5 min read

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In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

  • Leverage for ETH
  • Dynamics in SOL
  • The labor market effect

Market cast 

Conquering $100,000 (again)

Bitcoin surged past the pivotal $100,000 mark on Monday afternoon, continuing to trade above it on Tuesday. This breakout above a key psychological and technical resistance level could transform into robust support, bolstering the asset’s bullish trajectory. Current momentum indicators, such as the RSI and other oscillators, remain below the overbought zone of 70, signaling moderate momentum at present.

However, Bitcoin’s long-term charts reveal a rising channel, suggesting the market remains firmly in bullish territory. Historically, January has been a strong month for Bitcoin, often delivering rallies of 20-30%, which aligns with expectations of continued upward movement. On the downside, any trend correction is likely to find strong support in the $92,000–$95,000 range, providing a cushion for the price during potential pullbacks.

Meanwhile, as the market watches these developments, MicroStrategy appears to be back at it — because what is another 1,000 BTC.

The big idea

Bitcoin: Strongest at 16

On its 16th birthday, Bitcoin’s impressive climb up the charts propelled its market cap to $2 trillion, marking a significant milestone in its maturation as an asset. We probably should thank the $2 billion of inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first days of 2025 for this latest climb. Yet, it all came to life on January 3, 2009, when the Genesis Block was mined, embedding the now-famous message, 'The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.’ A nod to the 2009 financial crisis, it marked the birth of Bitcoin as a decentralized alternative to traditional finance. Fast forward 16 years, in 2024 Bitcoin outperformed leading stocks and commodities, gold included at a 4:1 ratio.

This week, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in mining difficulty, surging to 109.78 trillion hashes, making the network more secure and resilient than ever. Each new block mined strengthens Bitcoin’s core promise: a tamper-proof, decentralized system. Over 877,000 blocks later, Bitcoin’s security and value continue to rise, with its price first crossing the $100,000 mark in December 2024. And while Bitcoin’s busy making history, Nexo is helping shape its future with a 1 Bitcoin donation to Bitcoin Core developers at Brink – because even the best need a little help from their friends.

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Ethereum

Leveraged tailwinds for ETH

Ethereum (ETH) kicks off 2025 with bullish momentum, driven by a rise in long-term holders. It all aligns with recent media reports, highlighting the asset’s potential. Over 75% of ETH holders have kept their tokens for more than a year, up from 59% in January 2024. This growing confidence – along with $2 billion in spot Ethereum ETF inflows in December – signals increasing interest in the asset. It has also sparked discussions about potential gains in 2025.

The positive sentiment is also reflected in the futures market where Ether’s leverage ratio has reached a new high of 0.59 (more than twice BTC’s 0.21), indicating growing speculation. These trends point to a potentially strong performance ahead for Ethereum and there is more in this week's data story below.

Solana

A top for Solana?

Attention, traders. A certain market dynamic is reappearing for Solana (SOL), as the asset saw a substantial $227 million net inflow last week, according to CoinGlass. This influx mirrors a similar pattern from March 2024, when SOL’s price rally peaked near $200 before entering a prolonged range. Such large movements to exchanges often signal that holders could be preparing to sell. This inflow complicates the bullish technical outlook, which had suggested a potential price re-test of its November high of over $260. 

Hot in crypto

January’s crypto unlocks

The crypto market is set to see nearly $7 billion in token unlocks throughout January. These events, designed to control token supply, may often lead to short-term price volatility – here’s what to watch out for:

January 7–9:

  • Ethena (ENA): Unlocking 12 million tokens worth $12.16 million by Jan. 8.
  • Optimism (OP): Distributing 31.34M tokens valued at $57M by Jan. 9.

Daily Linear Unlocks:

TradFi trends

The important portfolio components 

This probably isn’t news to regular Dispatch readers, but it’s reassuring when a TradFi giant endorses Bitcoin. JPMorgan analysts emphasize the increasing importance of gold and Bitcoin in investor portfolios as part of the "debasement trade." This strategy involves hedging against fiat currency devaluation driven by inflation, rising government debt, and geopolitical instability.

The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, emphasize that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly important portfolio component, with 2024 seeing record inflows into the crypto market. This growing demand for Bitcoin underscores its rising role as a hedge against economic uncertainty, alongside traditional assets like gold.

Macroeconomic roundup

The labor market in the (crypto) spotlight 

This week, US economic data could drive volatility in the markets, with labor reports taking center stage.

ADP Employment (Wednesday): Job growth is expected to slow to 130,000. Strong data could boost Bitcoin demand but also prompt rate hikes.

Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday): Claims dropped to an 8-month low, signaling labor market strength, which could favor risk assets like Bitcoin.

US Employment Report (Friday): 155,000 new jobs expected, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Strong numbers could support broader market optimism.

The week’s most interesting data story

The flows that spark a rally

Ethereum’s recent price breakout above $3,600 has sparked bullish momentum, with a notable outflow of 89,000 ETH from exchanges, signaling strong accumulation. This trend, coupled with positive investor sentiment and a potential shift in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, suggests continued demand for Ethereum. As investors pile in, the asset is positioned to target higher price levels, with $4,000 now within reach, supported by growing optimism and strong macro momentum.

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The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

  • 5,615 Ethereum whales – The increased number of ETH whales signals renewed large investor interest.
  • 10,000 BTC – The amount of Bitcoin Metaplanet plans to acquire in 2025.
  • $908 million – The inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first week of 2025.
  • 124.4% – Bitcoin’s impressive return last year inspired VanEck to hail it as an inflation hedge.
  • 109.78 trillion hashes – The record mining difficulty securing Bitcoin’s network integrity.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

Something to look forward to.

There is a lot of clarity in hindsight.

The mother of all discussions in crypto?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].