Bitcoin’s cautious optimism

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• Bitcoin latest rise explained
• Optimism backs ETH
• Labour data brings the signal

Market cast

Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 as momentum builds

A range of macro and market developments supported Bitcoin in reclaiming the $80,000 level early on Tuesday, with technicals now aligning in favour of further upside.

On the weekly chart, price has bounced off the 20-period Simple Moving Average — the middle Bollinger Band, confirming it as dynamic support. The RSI remains neutral, the Stochastic signal lines are rising into overbought territory, and the MACD histogram sits deep in positive territory.

On the daily chart, the picture looks even more constructive. Price is trading comfortably above the key moving averages and hovering near the upper Bollinger Band. The Stochastic is overbought with no signs of fading momentum, the RSI is approaching the overbought threshold, and the rising ADX – a directional strength indicator, suggests bullish momentum may be strengthening rather than exhausting itself.

Key levels to watch: Support sits around $78,500, with a broader demand zone at $76,000–$77,000 below that. The weekly and daily 20-period SMAs also serve as dynamic support on any pullback. To the upside, $84,000 is the first resistance level to clear, with $87,000–$88,000 as the next meaningful hurdle.

The big idea

Bitcoin searches for the next step up

Bitcoin closed April with its best monthly performance in a year, posting an 11.87% gain and punching through the psychologically significant $80,000 level, a nearly 30% recovery from its 2026 low of $62,000 reached in early February. The move came against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, a pivotal Fed policy moment, and a twin engine of institutional demand and legislative momentum roaring back to life. Yet as May opens, the picture is far from one-dimensional. The market is now working through a natural consolidation phase, digesting recent gains while building the foundation for the next move. Two narratives are competing for dominance, and which one wins may well define Bitcoin's trajectory through the first half of 2026.

The bull case – institutions, legislation, and a market building momentum: The institutional bid behind April's rally is not just holding – it is accelerating. On the first day of May alone, $630 million poured into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, extending a two-month winning streak that made April the best month since October. Beyond the flows, the legislative picture is also shifting decisively. Senate Banking Committee chair Tim Scott confirmed on Friday that the CLARITY Act, the landmark digital asset market structure bill, is heading for a bipartisan markup in May and a Senate floor vote soon after – a meaningful step toward the regulatory clarity that institutional capital has long been waiting for.

Derivatives positioning round out the bull case, as perpetual futures positioning has flipped to a record net short bias, the deepest in the dataset's history. Historically, such extremes have preceded sharp inflection points. Should spot demand or sentiment improve, the conditions for a significant short squeeze are firmly in place.

Reasons for patience – consolidation, resistance, and the macro hurdles ahead: The more measured view of Bitcoin's current position is not bearish – it simply maps the hurdles that remain. Bitcoin's recent climb back toward $80,000 has been supported by relief buying following blowout earnings from the largest US tech companies. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple all reported double-digit revenue growth, briefly reigniting confidence in the AI growth story. CryptoQuant has noted that April's rally was driven primarily by futures activity rather than broad spot demand (more on that in this week’s most interesting data story). 

On-chain data reflects that dynamic: as price approached $80,000, short-term holders took the opportunity to realise profits at scale, creating a natural resistance zone around the True Market Mean near $78,000 and the Short-Term Holder cost basis near $79,000. Support, meanwhile, looks reasonably well-established. A dense accumulation cluster between $65,000 and $70,000 reflects genuine buyer conviction at lower levels. The macro picture requires careful watching. Oil prices remain elevated due to the Iran conflict and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as higher crude feeds inflation and makes central banks less willing to cut rates. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% this week, though four dissenting voices, the most since 1992, signal growing internal tension. 

The $80,000 level remains the defining test for the weeks ahead. A clean break above it could draw in fresh buyers and confirm that April's recovery was a genuine foundation. The macro calendar for May is stacked with the US jobs report, nine Fed officials speaking throughout the week, and major corporate earnings all in focus. At 38% below its all-time high, the recovery story is still very much in its early chapters – but the pages are turning.

Ethereum

Is the (sleeping) giant waking up?

Ethereum is trading around $2,300, coiling beneath key resistance as analysts debate whether a major breakout is building. Fundstrat's Tom Lee amplified a "generational play" thesis projecting ETH toward $60,000 by 2030, anchored by a long-term ascending channel that previously preceded a 5,200% rally. Closer term, two independent technical reads both point to $3,430 as the next major upside target should bulls reclaim the channel midline.

Patience, however, remains warranted. The Ethereum Foundation has periodically sold portions of its ETH holdings, a practice that, while part of its operational funding model, has at times added to near-term supply pressure. Ethereum ETFs shed $184 million over four consecutive days through April 30, reflecting broader uncertainty, though Friday snapped the streak with $101 million in fresh inflows. Notably, despite the ETF pressure, ETH's spot price climbed 2.2% over the same period, suggesting underlying demand remains resilient.

Macroeconomic roundup

The jobs’ market takes centre stage

This week, the US labour market takes centre stage and for crypto markets, the stakes couldn't be higher. A sequenced run of employment data across four days will shape expectations around Fed rate cuts, with Bitcoin historically sensitive to every print.

JOLTS & ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday): First read on hiring appetite and services activity. Weak numbers would build the case for easing expectations.

ADP Nonfarm Employment (Wednesday): The market's first hard look at April private sector hiring. A miss could sharpen rate cut bets heading into Friday.

Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday): Claims have been creeping higher. A reading above 220,000 would reinforce the narrative that labour market cooling is accelerating.

Nonfarm Payrolls, Earnings & Unemployment (Friday): The week's defining moment. With unemployment already at 4.3%, any deterioration in the jobs picture would meaningfully raise the probability of a rate cut under incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

The week's most interesting data story

Is this BTC’s first step to six figures?

April's sharp rise in perpetual futures open interest reflects growing market participation though funding and basis indicate the new positioning leaned short rather than long. Perpetual futures are the most actively traded instrument in crypto markets, and rising open interest signals that more capital is entering with a directional view. CryptoQuant has flagged that spot demand has yet to fully catch up, describing April's rally as speculative in nature. This dynamic is not unusual in the early stages of a recovery though – leverage often leads, with spot accumulation following as broader confidence builds. Institutional spot demand is already showing early signs of stabilisation through ETF inflows. If the recovery continues alongside elevated futures positioning, the foundation for a more sustained move higher strengthens, with underwater shorts adding cover-driven upside potential.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$16 trillion — Ark Invest's projected Bitcoin market value by 2030, implying a more than 10-fold increase from today's roughly $1.5 trillion

$90,000 — Bitcoin's next target, with $1.7 billion in notional value and clusters building at $90,000 and $100,000 strike prices.

$1.04 billion — Tether's first-quarter profit, boosting excess reserves to a record $8.23 billion.

$292 billion — The scale of the global risk-on rotation over the past four weeks, and with a 0.58 correlation to the S&P 500, Bitcoin sits directly in its path.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Will the Fed bring a surprise?

BTC faces a resistance test.

Time to watch out for an XRP rally?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].