Dispatch #289: Bitcoin quietly outperforms

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• Ethereum teases analysts
• Crypto gets clarity
• Macro signals continue

Market cast

Has BTC reversed the trend?

Bitcoin opened the week with a push above $71,000, reigniting interest after a prolonged period of consolidation. On the weekly chart, price action has stabilized, shifting the broader outlook to modestly bullish. The RSI and Stochastic – both momentum oscillators, are trending higher, though they remain within neutral territory, while the MACD signal lines are approaching a bullish crossover. 

On the daily timeframe, price has cleared both the 50-day and 20-day SMAs – the latter serving as the Bollinger Band midline, a constructive sign, though the overall structure remains range-bound. The momentum oscillators are again hovering in neutral zones, the MACD histogram is flatlining near zero, and the ADX – a trend strength indicator, is sitting below 20, confirming the absence of any meaningful trend. On the support side, the immediate zone to watch sits between $70,000 and $71,000, followed by $68,000. To the upside, resistance levels are seen at $73,000 and $76,000.

The big idea

Is Bitcoin playing the wait-and-see game?

In Dispatch #288, we wondered whether Bitcoin could hold its own against traditional assets in a turbulent macro environment. This week, we have an answer – Bitcoin opened Monday with a solid 3.6% bounce over 24H, punching back above $71,000, while most other asset classes continued to struggle.

Traditional assets under pressure: The numbers are telling. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are each down 3–5% this month, with the S&P breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year – a significant signal for institutional investors. Gold, long considered the go-to hedge in uncertain times, has dropped roughly 18% from its recent highs after nine straight days of losses, now edging toward bear market territory. Oil, meanwhile, has surged over 48% this month, stoking inflation fears and complicating the outlook for central banks. Some of this was likely coming regardless as many of these assets had rallied hard and were looking extended, with a firming US dollar adding further pressure to the unwind.

Bitcoin already had its pain: While traditional markets are only now adjusting to the new macro reality, Bitcoin's adjustment came earlier. Prices declined from around $126,000 in October all the way toward $60,000 earlier this year, while equities were still near record highs. The deleveraging already happened, and Bitcoin came into this period with no bloated positioning to flush out. That earlier reset is a key reason it now finds itself as one of the steadier assets around. That said, BTC remains correlated with risk assets, and when equities took their worst hits, crypto followed. With the Fed holding rates steady and markets beginning to price in possible hikes, that correlation isn't going away anytime soon.

The road ahead – miners and institutions: Beneath the surface, there's a structural story worth watching. Miners are currently producing Bitcoin at a significant loss. Average production costs sit around $88,000 per coin against a market price near $69,000. Rising energy costs have accelerated the squeeze, pushing network difficulty down nearly 8% in the last adjustment and forcing some miners to sell holdings to stay afloat. That adds near-term supply pressure. But the network self-corrects by design: as miners exit, difficulty falls, and profitability gradually returns. A reset, in other words, is already underway.

On the demand side, the picture is more encouraging. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have posted seven straight days of net inflows – the longest streak since October 2025, pulling in roughly $1.17 billion over that period. On-chain, long-term holder selling has slowed and it seems like experienced investors are sitting tight. Bitcoin has broken back above $70,000 and into a zone with limited on-chain resistance all the way to $82,000. Institutional inflows are picking up, shorts are crowded, and the options market is quietly turning positive. The pieces are falling into place and the on-chain data tells the full story. See this week's data story below for more details. For now, Bitcoin is doing what it does best before a big move: making everyone wait.

TradFi trends

The clarity crypto anticipated

After more than a decade of uncertainty, the SEC and CFTC this month delivered a landmark framework declaring that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and most other crypto assets are not securities. The new taxonomy also provides long-awaited breathing room for staking, mining, and airdrops, while the two agencies signed a coordination agreement marking their closest alignment in the asset class's history. SEC Chair Paul Atkins called it "a beginning, not an end," with Congress still needed to make the framework permanent. But for now, institutional compliance teams have one less reason to sit on the sidelines.

Ethereum

Ethereum: the whales are back in profit

A closely watched on-chain signal is flashing early recovery signs for Ethereum. For the first time since early February, the unrealized profit ratio of wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has flipped back above zero, according to CryptoQuant,meaning the richest ETH holders are no longer sitting on aggregate paper losses. Historically, similar transitions have preceded significant price moves: ETH averaged 25% gains in the three months following the signal, and roughly 50% over six months. If the pattern holds, Ether could approach $2,750 by June.

Glassnode's MVRV data reinforces the picture, showing ETH rebounding from its lowest deviation band, a setup seen at prior cycle lows. The first key recovery level is the realized price at $2,353, with a break above potentially opening the door toward $2,640. On the downside, failure to hold current levels risks a retest near $1,950.

Macroeconomic roundup

This week’s macro signals

With Bitcoin testing $70,000, a few U.S. data releases this week could meaningfully shift rate-cut expectations – and risk appetite with them.

Flash PMIs (Tue): First snapshot of March activity. Services strength could delay Fed easing; a manufacturing print below 50 signals contraction and likely defensive positioning across risk assets.

EIA Crude oil inventories (Wed): Large inventory draws lift oil prices and feed directly into inflation concerns – a wildcard given where energy markets currently stand.

Initial jobless claims (Thu): Consensus around 211,000. Rising claims support the case for earlier easing; a surprise drop reinforces higher-for-longer.

University of Michigan sentiment & Inflation expectations (Fri): The week's closing act. The Fed watches inflation expectations closely – a hot reading would complicate the path to cuts.

For the full events this week ahead, see our macro calendar on X.

The week's most interesting data story

Bitcoin’s (new) foundation?

Bitcoin has broken above the dense supply cluster built between $59,000 and $72,000 and is now trading in a zone with very little prior accumulation — an air pocket between $72,000 and $82,000 offering limited on-chain resistance. Every day spent here adds new cost basis, gradually turning an empty shelf into a foundation. One bounce doesn't make a bull market, though. The Percent of Supply in Profit sits around 60%, consistent with early recoveries at prior cycle lows, but historically a level where first-bounce exhaustion is common. A sustained move above 75% would be the cleaner structural confirmation. For now, $72,000–$82,000 is where the story plays out.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$160 billion – What Morgan Stanley's own spot Bitcoin ETF could unlock at just a 2% allocation across its $8 trillion wealth platform. 

$138 million – Bitmine's latest ETH buy, lifting its total holdings to 4.66 million tokens or 3.86% of circulating supply. 

$375 billion – Stablecoin payment volume in 2025, up 76% year-on-year, with AI-driven machine payments an upside case.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Is this a cycle bottom?

Is a new trend cycle emerging?

Is this the most dedicated strategy?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].