Dispatch #290: Here’s how Bitcoin is moving ahead

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• BTC’s latest ETF
• US labour market signals
• ETH’s supply and demand

Market cast

Has BTC found solid ground?

Bitcoin recovered from a brief dip below $65,200 and is trading near $67,500, holding its range as broader markets close March in the red. On the weekly chart, price has bounced off a strong support zone between $65,500 and $66,000 and appears to be stabilizing. The Stochastic oscillator – a momentum indicator, has dipped below the 20 mark, while the RSI, a measure of price strength, is hovering near oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD signal lines are approaching a potential bullish crossover.

On the daily timeframe, price has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band and is now testing the 50-day SMA, a key trend indicator. The Stochastic signal lines are on the verge of crossing above the oversold threshold, typically a sign that downward momentum is fading, while the RSI remains in neutral territory. Although the MACD histogram is still negative, the signal lines are beginning to converge. On the support side, the immediate level to watch sits at $65,500, followed by the $63,000–$62,500 zone. To the upside, resistance is seen at $68,000 and the psychological $70,000 mark.

The big idea

What crypto is building beneath the surface

Macroeconomics and politics have weighed on digital assets, but silver linings are there for those looking beyond the headlines. Institutional capital is moving on-chain, infrastructure is expanding, and the three leading assets each have a concrete story to tell.

Bitcoin – holding where it matters: JPMorgan analysts made a clear call: Bitcoin is outperforming traditional safe havens. Gold has shed roughly 15% month-to-date, with ETFs recording nearly $11 billion in outflows in the first three weeks of March. Bitcoin, by contrast, has seen net inflows over the same period – and its market liquidity has improved relative to gold's. Institutional futures positioning has stayed stable while metals swung to below-neutral levels. When conflict broke out in Iran, crypto activity surged as citizens moved capital to self-custody wallets — a real-world demonstration of Bitcoin's borderless utility under pressure. On the institutional front, Morgan Stanley has filed to launch its own Bitcoin ETF.

Ethereum – supply tightens as institutions build: That institutional momentum extends well beyond Bitcoin. Around 38.1 million ETH – roughly 33.1% of total supply, is now locked in staking, a record high. Supply is contracting, and it is not coming back quickly – more below in this week’s data story. The demand side is equally concrete. BlackRock's 2026 Thematic Outlook positions Ethereum as underpinning 65% of tokenized assets. JPMorgan, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Nasdaq, and the NYSE have all deployed or received approval for tokenized products on its rails. TradFi is not experimenting with Ethereum — it is building on it.

Solana – the AI payment layer: Solana is carving out a distinct lane. The Foundation reports 15 million on-chain payments already processed by AI agents, with stablecoins emerging as the default settlement rail for machine-to-machine commerce. Solana's throughput and sub-cent costs give it a structural edge that traditional payment rails cannot match. The newly launched Solana Developer Platform (SDP) brings that vision to institutions directly — Mastercard, Western Union, and Worldpay are already among its early adopters, building stablecoin settlement, cross-border payments, and tokenized assets on Solana's infrastructure.

The foundations are in place. What is missing is the macro tailwind. A more stable economic environment, clearer rate direction and easing trade tensions is likely what it takes to bring broader interest back to digital assets. When that shift comes, the infrastructure being built today across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana means the space will be better positioned to receive it than at any point before.

TradFi trends

Is crypto ready for retirement investing?

A proposed U.S. Labor Department rule that would open America's $10 trillion 401(k) retirement market to cryptocurrency has cleared White House regulatory review, marking a significant step toward institutional-scale digital asset adoption.

If finalised, the rule would allow plan sponsors to include crypto among designated investment alternatives for the first time — a structural shift that could channel retirement savings into digital assets at a scale the market has not yet seen. The proposal follows an executive order by President Trump directing federal agencies to explore access to alternative investments in defined-contribution plans. The potential scale is hard to ignore. Fidelity reports the average 401(k) balance hit an all-time high of $144,400 in Q3 2025, up 9% year-over-year. For a global digital asset market still maturing, a formal gateway into U.S. retirement capital would represent one of the most significant demand catalysts to date.

Macroeconomic roundup

The labour market guides the Fed

With Bitcoin consolidating near $67,400, four U.S. data releases this week could shift rate-cut expectations — and risk appetite with them.

JOLTS & Consumer Confidence (Tue): Job openings consensus near 7 million. A softer print builds the case for earlier easing; weak confidence adds to the dovish narrative.

ADP Employment & Retail Sales (Wed): ADP consensus ~63,000 jobs; retail sales expected +0.4%. A miss on both raises recession concerns; a beat firms the dollar and pressures BTC.

NFP Jobs Report (Fri): The week's main event, landing on Good Friday with equity markets closed. Consensus is +45,000 — a rebound from February's -92,000 shock. Another negative print could push BTC toward $62,000; a strong beat revives higher-for-longer fears.

For the full events calendar, see our macro calendar on X.

The week's most interesting data story

Is a supply crunch forming for ETH?

ETH on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since 2016 and it is not coming back quickly. Staking queues are backed up nearly 50 days while exit queues sit near empty, meaning supply is locked in by design. Large withdrawals across major venues over recent weeks have accelerated the trend. The less ETH available on exchanges, the more sensitive the price becomes to any meaningful pickup in demand.

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$147.6 million – Bitmine Immersion's latest weekly ETH buy, bringing its total holdings to 4.73 million tokens.

$105 – The level WTI crude hit on Monday, its highest price in nearly four years.

$46 million – The Ethereum Foundation put its own treasury to work on Monday, part of a $142 million staking commitment.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Another TradFi whale joins?

Crypto mining just got a Washington ally.

Is BTC holding up well?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].