Dispatch #228: Conquering crypto’s next frontier

Highlights:

• Meme mania

• Bitcoin reserves: nation edition

• Japan interest rate decision

Market cast 

BTC going band for band

Bitcoin experienced substantial price fluctuations and significant upward momentum at the start of the week. BTC/USD reached and surpassed an all-time high of $109,000 ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, driven by expectations of favorable crypto policies. On the weekly chart, oscillators are positioned in the overbought zone, while on the daily chart, the price has moved above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator. 

While this momentum was encouraging, it also suggested the possibility of an impending price correction, and correct Bitcoin did. The asset retreated from its $109,000 peak during Trump's inauguration speech on Monday to test the $100,000 level after crypto was not mentioned in the immediate list of priorities for the new administration. 

Identifying the next resistance level remains challenging, but projections indicate that the price could potentially reach the $120-130,000 range, based on the Fibonacci extension. Support levels are anticipated to align with previous resistance points, approximately around $106,000 and $100,000.

The most interesting times lie ahead. 

The big idea

HODLer times

By now you should be aware we are a company of HODLers. And our 2018 selves cannot believe that in 2025 we’d be compiling a list of HODLer countries eyeing national Bitcoin reserves. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of similar news from the past month only:

• Hong Kong legislator proposes adding Bitcoin to reserves.

• Switzerland to consider Bitcoin reserves for national holdings.

• Chilean lawmakers propose a Bitcoin reserve.

• Czech National Bank weighs Bitcoin for reserve strategy.

• California, Massachusetts, and Wyoming have joined the race.

The field is apparently getting so competitive that nations are now hiding their identities while planning their steps towards Bitcoin reserves. 

If you live in one of these crypto-promised lands, there's really just one pressing question: Will politicians actually deliver on their digital dreams? All eyes are on Donald Trump - the man who turned 'huge' into a catchphrase is now fielding questions about the future of digital money.

The rumor mill is churning with potential Executive Orders: from designating crypto as a national priority to creating a national Bitcoin stockpile. While Trump did not mention crypto in his inauguration speech, his appointments of David Sacks as AI and crypto czar and Paul Atkins as SEC nominee signal a crypto-friendly stance. 

Speaking of which, the prediction markets were having a field day on Monday - Polymarket bettors were putting their money where their mouths are, with odds suggesting a 56% chance of seeing a national Bitcoin reserve materialize in the first 100 days pre-inaguration. The odds lowered to 45% post-inauguration.

But here's the kicker and what makes HODLers smile: whether these promises materialize or not, just having Bitcoin in national conversations turns what was once a cypherpunk dream into tomorrow's reality.

Adoption

From campaign trail to trading rails

Both $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens have already seen their share of action, with trading volumes hitting notable peaks and dips following campaign announcements. For those keeping score: both tokens are now available on Nexo for perpetual futures trading with up to 15x leverage for the more adventurous traders. $TRUMP is available to buy with card, Apple Pay or Google Pay and swap on the Nexo Exchange.

Ethereum

Pectra this March: biggest validator upgrade yet

Ethereum's getting ready for its next big glow-up, and this one's called Pectra. After playing it cool with test runs and pushing back the 2024 deadline (because good things take time), developers are now eyeing March 2025 for the main event. The upgrade's got some juicy perks: wallets are getting smarter, validators can stack up to 2,048 ETH instead of the old-school 32, and the whole deposit-exit dance is getting a makeover. Before the big show, February's bringing dress rehearsals on the Sepolia and Holesky testnets - because nobody wants plot twists on mainnet launch day.

TradFi trends

Old dog, new tricks

Litecoin is so old it can legitimately be considered TradFi, and now it's knocking on the SEC's door with proper Wall Street manners. Bloomberg's ETF guru Eric Balchunas is betting it'll be the next crypto to get the ETF green light – maybe due to it being a fork off Bitcoin’s network – especially after Canary Capital just polished up their paperwork with an amended S-1 filing. Speaking of old-school credentials, Litecoin's been running without a hiccup since 2011 (that's practically prehistoric in crypto years), and with $8.9 billion in market cap, it's making its case as the responsible middle child between Bitcoin and the altcoin chaos. Of course, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already making it rain, everyone is lining up for their shot at Wall Street fame.

Macroeconomic roundup

The land of the rising sun

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday): Market sentiment reading could signal recession risks, potentially pushing EUR lower against major pairs.

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday):  Labor market resilience continues to challenge Fed pivot expectations, with previous week showing unexpected strength.

• European Central Bank President Lagarde Speaks (Friday): Market focus on any hints about rate cut timing amid mixed Eurozone economic signals and declining inflation.

• Japan Interest Rate Decision (Friday): The Land of the Rising Sun might finally say sayonara to negative rates - their first proper hike since 2007. Last time they just tweaked their yield curve control, markets threw a mini tantrum in August. This time, with the massive yen-carry trade still in play, we're all watching to see if history repeats itself with extra spice

The week’s most interesting data story

XRP's perfect storm: when spot meets futures

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

• $109,071 Bitcoin – Bitcoin’s new all-time high, showcasing unprecedented market excitement.
• $33 million in daily fees – Solana's daily transaction fees reached a record $33 million, fueled by the surge in Trump family memecoins.
• $12 billion $TRUMP and $8.5 billion $MELANIA  – Donald and Melania Trump’s memecoins surged to $12 billion and $8.5 billion market caps, respectively.
• 450,000 Bitcoin – MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings climbed to 450,000 BTC, valued at over $40 billion, reaffirming institutional confidence.
• $3.85 trillion market cap – The global cryptocurrency market cap hit $3.85 trillion, marking a milestone in the industry's growth.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

Going parabolic?

Smooth sailing.

Add a buy button on Google?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].