Dispatch #248: The mechanics of a breakout

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

ETH’s 2-week streak
Inflation check-in time
Demand for $100K+ BTC

Market cast

$120,000 on the chart?

Bitcoin’s technical setup remains firmly bullish, especially across key momentum indicators. On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both support continued upside. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads above 25, signalling a strong underlying trend, while price action near the upper Bollinger Band suggests sustained buying pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory but shows no clear signs of reversal.

On the daily chart, short-term momentum is turning positive. While the MACD hovers near neutral, both the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are ticking higher – pointing to a potential bullish continuation. A close above $111,000 could pave the way for a run at the psychological $120,000 mark. Support holds at $104,000–$105,000, with a firmer floor near $100,000.

The big idea

Down briefly, back quickly – BTC’s new superpower

Bitcoin briefly dipped to $100,000 last week as the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index shifted, coinciding with media coverage of a cooling public relationship between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. In the past, moments like these would have sparked lasting and outsized market kickbacks. But not this time. Bitcoin recovered with remarkable speed and composure – no drama, just a quiet rebound that spoke volumes about its growing maturity.

This wasn’t just a bounce – it was a breakout that defied the market’s own expectations. While suppressed volatility and directionless formed the narrative, Bitcoin surged more than 3% late Monday above $110,000. It broke decisively above $106,500, set new support levels, and now sits within striking distance of its all-time highs.

The recovery wasn’t driven by retail speculation or social media chatter. It was supported by solid fundamentals and institutional flow. With each market test, Bitcoin is behaving less like a volatile trade and more like an asset that’s steadily earning its place in diversified portfolios.

CME futures data backs this up. The number of large open interest holders – institutions holding 25+ micro Bitcoin contracts – hit a record 217 by the end of May, up 36% since early 2024. This shift reflects more than just positioning; it’s a redefinition of Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios, from high-beta asset to long-horizon allocation.

Meanwhile, corporate Bitcoin adoption is ramping up. GameStop recently added 4,710 BTC to its balance sheet, while Trump Media raised $2.32 billion in a private offering specifically to fund future Bitcoin purchases – one of the largest single corporate allocations to date. MicroStrategy, the long-time bellwether of institutional conviction, also added 705 BTC, bringing its total stash close to 581,000 BTC.

And while spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $278 million on June 5, the bigger picture is far more bullish. BlackRock’s IBIT just smashed records, crossing $70 billion in assets under management – making it the fastest ETF in history to reach that milestone, more than 5x quicker than GLD. That’s not tapering interest – it’s acceleration at scale.

Recent 13F filings show hedge funds like Millennium Management and Brevan Howard, as well as the State of Wisconsin Investment Board, cutting or exiting their ETF positions. These retreats align with the collapse of the popular BTC futures basis trade, which once allowed managers to pair long ETF positions with short futures for low-risk arbitrage. As the premium between spot and futures evaporated – falling from around 15% to near zero by the end of Q1 – the appeal of these trades faded.

But while fast money steps back, long-horizon capital is stepping in:

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign wealth fund expanded its IBIT stake to $409 million.
Brown University initiated a $4.9 million position.
Several sovereign entities and university endowments disclosed new or growing holdings.

Importantly, many of these allocators are looking beyond ETFs altogether. They’re opting for direct Bitcoin exposure, self-custody, and balance sheet reserves — a trend that reflects not just financial strategy but ideological alignment with Bitcoin’s core proposition. What’s the Big idea here?

Bitcoin’s resilience isn’t just about price recovery – it’s about solid fundamentals. From hedge fund exits to sovereign wealth entries, from ETF rotations to direct ownership, the market is maturing. Bitcoin is no longer a reactionary asset – it’s becoming the reaction itself. Amid noise, disorder, and unpredictability, Bitcoin is emerging as the one thing that doesn’t flinch.

Ethereum

ETH finds its rhythm

Ethereum has shaken off its slumber, climbing past $2,700 in the last 24 hours after hovering around $2,485 for most of the week. What’s fueling the sudden spark? Spot Ethereum ETFs have now logged 15 consecutive sessions of net inflows, adding over $800 million since mid-May and lifting 2024 totals past $3 billion. Institutional investors are steadily increasing exposure, underscoring sustained confidence in Ethereum’s long-term potential.

At the protocol level, the Ethereum Foundation is sharpening its financial strategy. A new treasury policy links spending to reserves and market cycles, with quarterly and annual reporting to boost transparency. The Foundation is also putting capital to work, allocating ETH into audited protocols to support infrastructure while generating returns. With a pivotal 18-month window ahead, Ethereum is locking in both funding discipline and ecosystem alignment.

Hot in crypto

XRP cracks the index

Nasdaq has added XRP to its Crypto US Settlement Price Index, signalling a major nod to the token’s growing legitimacy. The move aims to modernize institutional crypto benchmarks by including more than just Bitcoin and Ethereum. While XRP can’t yet be held directly by U.S. ETFs, its inclusion in the index positions it for future exposure as regulations evolve. It’s a milestone moment that underscores XRP’s potential role in institutional portfolios – even as adoption hinges on stronger on-chain signals and regulatory clarity.

Macroeconomic roundup

CPI week: Hot print or cooling off?

Markets are watching as U.S.–China trade talks enter day two in London. Hopes of a breakthrough rose after President Trump cited “good reports” and signs emerged of a rare earths–semiconductors swap. Аttention is also turning to key U.S. inflation data and bond market developments that could shape near-term rate expectations.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (June 11): Headline CPI for May is expected to rise to 2.5% YoY, with core CPI seen at 2.9%. Monthly increases of 0.2% (headline) and 0.3% (core) are forecast. Markets will be focused on whether recent tariff changes are pushing up goods prices, particularly in categories like apparel, car parts, and furniture.

U.S. 10-Year Note Auction (June 11): This midweek bond sale will provide insight into investor demand amid heightened inflation concerns. Weaker demand could reflect growing sensitivity to upside price risks.

Producer Price Index & Initial Jobless Claims (June 12): The PPI report will offer a view into input cost trends across industries. Continued pricing pressure may reinforce inflation concerns. Meanwhile, jobless claims remain a key indicator of labor market conditions, especially after recent elevated readings.

The week’s most interesting data story

Big buyers don’t blink at $100,000

Even above $100,000, Bitcoin demand is holding firm. Glassnode’s entity-adjusted URPD shows sustained accumulation from 100–10K BTC wallets – wallet sizes typically linked to institutions and funds. These large players have concentrated holdings around $74,000-$90,000, but what’s more telling is their continued activity beyond the $100,000 mark. Rather than taking profits, are they building positions – signalling that long-term conviction is still growing at the top?

The numbers

The week’s most interesting numbers

$515 billion – Projected valuation for Tether if it went public.
$5.4 billion – Metaplanet’s latest Bitcoin-focused equity raise, the largest in Asia to date.
$1.9 billion – XRP bought by whales in 48 hours, signaling accumulation at a key price.
$32.1 billion – Circle's valuation after a blockbuster NYSE debut.
$2 billion – Fueled by the Trump–Musk feud, the TRUMP memecoin reclaimed the key market cap figure.

Hot topic

What the community is discussing

Is it all down to this week’s inflation prints?

That’s the kind of prophecy we like.

Are these the states that shape the future of finance?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].