Dispatch #244: Crypto: Gradual forces and sudden moves

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

Ethereum’s solid comeback
A monthly CPI test
BTC ETFs post a record

Market cast

BTC covers the technicals – ATH next?

Bitcoin continues to show strong bullish momentum on the weekly chart, supported not only by price action but also by on-chain data pointing to a steady rise in long-term holder accumulation. Key indicators reinforce this trend: the MACD remains above its signal line, the Stochastic oscillator sits firmly in overbought territory, and the RSI is approaching similar levels. Price action is also pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting sustained upward pressure.

The daily chart supports this view, with the MACD still bullish and the Stochastic oscillator holding in overbought territory. However, the RSI is beginning to ease from overbought levels, hinting at a possible short-term slowdown in momentum. Structurally, Bitcoin remains well-positioned above all major moving averages, and the ADX points to the strengthening of a well-established trend.

Price-wise, immediate resistance lies near $105,000. A confirmed breakout above this level could pave the way for a challenge of the all-time high. On the downside, initial support is clustered around $101,000 – $100,000, with a deeper cushion near $96,500.

The big idea

The quiet alignment behind crypto’s surge

At Dispatch, we are in the business of tuning out the market noise and zooming in on the moments that matter — the subtle shifts that can move the entire digital asset narrative forward.

Last week, Bitcoin flirted with its all-time high – and Nexo Co-Founder Antoni Trenchev highlighted the move for global news outlets Reuters. But beyond the price action, a quieter convergence is taking shape. Four macro forces – not dramatic in isolation, but powerful in tandem – are quietly laying a solid foundation for crypto’s performance.

Trade tensions cool: The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on tariff hikes, dialing down one of the biggest sources of global uncertainty. While structural frictions remain, the truce has lifted macro sentiment. Less tension, more risk appetite – historically, a friendly setup for digital assets.

Inflation readings could tilt the Fed: This week’s CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will test the Fed’s “wait and see” approach. If inflation data stays muted, rate cut hopes get more real — and that’s the kind of monetary backdrop aligned with crypto rallies.

Stablecoin: stalled, not scrapped: The GENIUS Act didn’t make it past the Senate last week, slowing the rollout of a U.S. stablecoin framework. Still, with that much political energy invested, it’s clear: stablecoins are no longer peripheral. The conversation is paused, not forgotten.

A possible diplomatic pivot: Early signs of dialogue between Ukraine and Russia have emerged, with key global powers encouraging talks. While the situation remains fluid, any movement toward diplomatic calm helps ease macro stress and supports a more constructive environment for risk assets.

Taken together, these developments – active trade talks,stabilizing inflation, stablecoin legislation, and diplomatic signals. form a backdrop that feels firmer and more orderly than just a few weeks ago.

Momentum is building – not in loud bursts, but in quiet alignment. And in crypto, that’s often when things really start moving.

Hot in crypto

ETH’s back with a bang

We’ve been calling it in the last two issues, and Ethereum delivered. ETH surged over 40% in under a week, surpassing Coca-Cola and Alibaba's market cap to rank as the 39th-largest global asset.

The move followed the flawless launch of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, which enhanced scalability, user experience, and validator operations – a thesis that Dispatch editors discussed. After lagging behind Bitcoin, Ethereum may finally be repricing its core role in the digital asset economy.

What happens next? With ETH reclaiming major support and bullish technicals in play, talk of a $10K path is no longer fringe – it’s all over the communities.

TradFi trends

The whys and hows of crypto

The line between traditional finance and digital assets isn’t just blurry – it’s being redrawn. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that the U.S. should be the “premier destination for digital assets” as lawmakers work to anchor crypto in regulatory frameworks shaped by American market standards. And as the U.S. opens the door, Nexo is stepping back in. Our return to the market reflects more than just timing — it aligns with a broader reinvention of financial infrastructure that blends the best of TradFi and crypto.

Cathie Wood of Ark Invest put it plainly: the U.S. is entering “a new era of productivity-led growth” fueled by AI, automation, and digital assets. This isn’t another stimulus-driven cycle – it's one grounded in tangible efficiency gains, where digital assets are beginning to play a structural role.

Macroeconomic roundup

CPI week: back to basics

The Fed held rates steady last week, but President Trump wasn’t impressed, dubbing Jerome Powell “Too Late” for what he sees as indecision in the face of rising trade uncertainty and cooling sentiment. While Powell pointed to a “solid” labor market and no urgent need to cut, many fear the central bank may again be behind the curve, just as new tariffs begin to bite.

This week is already testing the Fed’s stance. April CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year, below the 2.4% forecast, and 0.2% month-on-month after a March dip. Still above target, but softer than expected. Next up: Thursday’s triple release – PPI, retail sales, and Powell. With nearly 90% of S&P 500 firms flagging tariff concerns, any soft print could turn the Fed’s “wait and see” into “too late” sooner than expected.

The week’s most interesting data story

The power of ETF flows

Bitcoin spot ETFs just crossed $40.3 billion in lifetime net flows – a new all-time high, according to Bloomberg analysts – with nearly $4.8 billion added since the April lows alone. The chart below vividly illustrates this renewed momentum, showing capital flowing steadily into these vehicles as Bitcoin climbed back above $100,000. BlackRock’s IBIT continues to dominate, capturing over 90% of the recent inflows. In a market still searching for clarity, institutional demand is drawing its own conclusion – and it looks bullish.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

$30.4 billion – ETH futures OI surges 42% in 3 days, nearing all-time high.
$11.7 million – Weekly Sui fund inflows; now ahead of Solana YTD.
$3.7 trillion – Citi’s bullish stablecoin market size forecast by 2030.
$150 billion – USDT supply hits record high as stablecoin volumes top Visa and PayPal.
$1.34 billion – Strategy adds 13,390 BTC to hold 568,840 BTC in total.

Hot topics

What the community is discussing

Got your sentiment meter on?

Are these the main reasons for ETH’s rise?

Who’s getting ready for higher?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].