Dispatch #211: Bitcoin’s Final Straight in 2024
Sep 27•4 min read
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:
- ETH’s Steady Progress 🛣️
- Crypto and Stocks Linked 🔗
- Global Economic Easing 🌐
The Big Idea
Risk-on or Risk-off?
Always an insightful audience, Dispatch readers showed firmly where their interest is in this week’s Big Idea poll – it is all about Bitcoin and the potential breakout of the (tight) price action this week.
Benzinga discussed where Bitcoin stands with Dispatch editors – it appears that a combination of market dynamics and macroeconomic shifts could result in such a rally in the final quarter of 2024. Here are the potential market movers that unraveled this week, sending Bitcoin over $65,000:
Accumulation Dynamics: Bitcoin's recent accumulation trend is a strong indicator of its upward momentum. In September, 88,000 BTC were accumulated, far surpassing the monthly issuance of 13,500 BTC, highlighting intense demand. This level of accumulation, last seen in late 2023, is bolstered by retail investors adding 35,000 BTC in just 30 days.
Institutional Adoption and Spot ETFs: Institutional interest remains a key driver, with firms like MicroStrategy continuing to buy Bitcoin amid favorable macro conditions. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady inflows this week, with $106M added in a single day, showing sustained demand.
Derivatives Market and Option Expiries: The derivatives market signals potential volatility, with 90,000 BTC options worth $5.8B set to expire. With 20% of these “in-the-money,” traders may push prices higher by rolling over profitable positions.
Call us optimistic, but that optimism is further fueled by a striking revelation coming from the Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock. Robbie Mitchnick highlights that Bitcoin’s unique scarcity and decentralization qualities make it fundamentally different from typical risk-on assets like equities. Labeling Bitcoin as such overlooks its potential as an emerging global monetary alternative, akin to gold, offering long-term stability against economic uncertainties. What’s the Big Idea here, you ask? We have a sneaky suspicion, that for HODLers, the best is yet to come.
The Latest In…
Ethereum ETFs: A Two-Month Check-In
Two months after their U.S. debut, Ethereum ETFs have generated $13B in trading volume, a slower pace than Bitcoin ETFs, which reached that figure in a week. Daily volumes range between $100M and $250M, with Grayscale’s ETHE leading the pack.
Ether is gaining momentum, surging 18.7%, outperforming Bitcoin in weekly gains. However, ETFs saw $29M in outflows during this period. On the upside, Ether's funding rate has turned positive, reflecting bullish sentiment, while Ethereum’s DApps and TVL have grown to $49.65B. Are these signs that suggest Ethereum ETFs are positioned for future institutional growth?
The Latest In…
In Sync Again: Crypto and Stocks
Crypto and U.S. stocks are moving closer in step, with a 40-day correlation between the largest 100 digital assets and the S&P 500 hitting 0.67 – levels not seen since mid-2022. The alignment suggests that macroeconomic factors driving the stock market are now playing a crucial role in shaping crypto prices.
The rising correlation comes at a time when both Bitcoin and Ether have seen impressive gains. This trend signals that cryptocurrencies are benefiting from the broader risk-on sentiment, especially after the Fed’s 50 basis-point rate cut.
The Latest In…
More Web3 Gadgetry
Not a week goes by without new crypto hardware. XProtocol is set to release the XForge, a $299 Android-powered smartphone optimized for gaming and blockchain rewards. Touted as the world’s first DePIN phone, it features a Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 processor. Early buyers can even earn rewards and free nodes for supporting XProtocol’s decentralized network.The XForge will run on XProtocol’s layer-3 network, but is expected to migrate to its own layer-1 for enhanced scalability.
The Latest In…
The Eastern Crypto Tailwind
QCP Capital analysts are forecasting a bullish shift in the crypto market, driven by upcoming stimulus measures from China. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to further ease monetary policy, and this, combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve potentially joining the global rate-cutting trend, could create a wave of liquidity injections. With all major central banks, except for Japan, moving toward monetary easing, the environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, is looking increasingly favorable.
According to QCP analysts, crypto prices are poised for a significant move, which could catch many investors by surprise. They point out that digital assets, especially altcoins, have historically reacted swiftly to liquidity surges. “With so many bullish catalysts aligning, the next move higher could leave many people sidelined,” they noted.
The Latest In…
Just Look at the Shrimp
In the past 30 days, “shrimp” investors, those holding less than 1 BTC, have amassed around 11,000 BTC, showcasing their remarkable persistence. Despite market volatility, this group has steadily increased their holdings, demonstrating strong confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential and contributing significantly to the overall accumulation trend.
Hot Topics
What the Community is Discussing:
Does Bitcoin need marketing, though?
Calling the inner trader in you.
Need more optimism?
What to Watch for Next Week:
Bitcoin’s L2 developments
Can Ethereum continue its recovery?
Is Solana loved by institutions?