Markets Today - July 31, 2026

Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.

Bitcoin closes July marginally up as cooler inflation eases the rate outlook

Bitcoin held near $64,000 on the final day of July, capping a month in which it recovered around 5% — a turnaround from June's decline, and a close that caps the turbulence on a firm note. The more encouraging macro development came from Thursday's inflation data: the Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE, cooled in June, easing some of the pressure that had built around the prospect of further rate hikes and leaving the dollar heading for a monthly loss. Equities roared back — a chip-led relief rally lifted the S&P 500 to its best day in seven weeks and drove Asian markets sharply higher — while big tech earnings split the tape, Amazon rising on cloud strength and Microsoft reassuring on AI, but Apple slipping on a soft sales outlook. Gold, meanwhile, is set for its first monthly gain since February. Ether sits near $1,907, XRP at $1.08, and the total crypto market cap held above $2.2 trillion. With a Bank of Japan hold and a softer inflation print, crypto enters August having quietly rebuilt through one of the year's choppiest stretches.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades around $63,000, down 3% on the day, having briefly touched $65,300 in early Asian hours. The number that matters more is the monthly one: a near-10% gain in July that recoups much of June's tumble and re-establishes a firmer footing. After spending much of the month moving in lockstep with semiconductor stocks — rising and falling with the AI trade — Bitcoin has increasingly traded on its own drivers over the past week, holding its ground and its monthly gain rather than swinging with each turn in the equity tape. For an asset that has too often been dismissed as a pure risk proxy, that growing independence is a constructive development.

The broader condition of the market is one of calm. Volatility has fallen to six-month lows, daily trading volume has thinned, and the price is coiled in an unusually tight range — the quietest the market has been since the start of the year. Such compression rarely lasts: historically, long stretches of low volatility have tended to precede sharp moves, and the tighter the range, the more forceful the eventual break. The direction is never guaranteed in advance, but the softer inflation backdrop and Bitcoin's firm monthly close lend the constructive case some weight heading into a data-heavy week.

Institutional flows offer a further steadying signal. Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered a more substantial $233 million of net inflows on Thursday, turning the week green and flipping it to a net positive — a firmer signal of demand after a choppier stretch, and a constructive marker of how allocators are positioning into August. Their trajectory from here will help determine whether the coiled market resolves to the upside. For now, Bitcoin closes the month steady and consolidated, its June recovery intact.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether edged above $1,90, before retreating to $1860 with XRP at $1.08, Solana near $74, and Cardano the day's firmest major. The standout remains BNB, up around 3% on the day to roughly $590 and the only major holding a meaningful weekly gain — a divergence that has quietly persisted all week. The moves elsewhere were small and rangebound, consistent with the broader market's low-volatility drift.

Beneath the calm, the weekly picture is mixed rather than weak: Ether has managed a slight gain over seven sessions while the higher-beta names have softened, with HYPE off around 5% and Solana and XRP each down roughly 3%. The pattern points to a market discriminating within crypto — capital favoring select large-cap names like BNB and holding Ether steady, rather than moving as a single bloc. It is the behavior of a sector consolidating and selective, waiting for the next catalyst rather than chasing the day's moves.

Macro & Institutional
The most consequential development for crypto was Thursday's inflation data. The Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE, cooled to 3.3% year-on-year in June from 3.4% — still above the 2% target, but a step in the right direction that softened the case for imminent tightening and pressured the dollar toward a monthly loss. Coming days after the Fed left rates unchanged, the print tempered some of the hawkish edge from a decision that had drawn three dissents in favor of a hike, and helped gold toward its first monthly gain since February.

The week's equity story was the rebound in the AI trade. A well-received Microsoft report reignited confidence in the durability of AI spending, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 8% — its biggest advance since April 2025 — powering the S&P 500 to its best day in seven weeks and lifting Asian markets, with South Korea's Kospi up sharply. After the close, the picture split: Amazon rose on the strength of its cloud division, where AWS sales grew 37%, while Apple slipped on a softer sales outlook tied to memory-chip shortages. The divergence reinforces a theme that has run all month — markets increasingly separating the AI winners from the laggards rather than buying the sector wholesale.

Central banks rounded out the week. The Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.0% in an 8-1 vote, trimming its inflation outlook even as Governor Ueda flagged a weak yen and AI demand as forces pushing prices higher; the yen gave back much of an intervention-driven spike. In Europe, Eurozone inflation ticked up to 2.9% in July from 2.8%, nudged by oil-price volatility — a reminder that energy remains the principal risk to the disinflation story. On the corporate side, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder grew its holdings by around 11% in the quarter even as mark-to-market accounting produced a headline loss — the underlying accumulation continuing beneath the optics.

Looking Ahead
August opens with a dense run of U.S. labor-market data that should shape the rate path and could break the market's summer calm. Monday brings the S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMIs, Tuesday the JOLTS job openings report, and Wednesday a cluster spanning the ADP private payrolls print, the services PMIs, and weekly jobless claims. But Friday brings the most consequential readings of all: July nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings — the clearest single read yet on whether the labor market is softening. With the Fed's next move genuinely unresolved after three dissents in favor of a hike, that report becomes the pivotal input. A soft payrolls number would undercut the case for further tightening and temper the hawkish talk, a combination that has historically supported risk appetite and would tend to favor crypto sentiment; a hot print would revive hike expectations and the pressure that comes with them. Beyond the data, markets will watch whether ETF flows build on Thursday's inflows, the durability of the equity rebound, and the trajectory of oil as Middle East tensions persist. For Bitcoin, the setup into August is one of compressed volatility, thin volume, and a firm monthly close — a consolidated market that history suggests will not stay quiet indefinitely. With inflation already cooling, a softer jobs picture on Friday would round out precisely the backdrop that tends to favor an upside resolution.

Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.